Publication Date:
2023-07-25
Description:
The emission of volcanic gases can occur during both eruptive and quiescent stages of volcanic activity, affecting air quality when the concentrations exceed species-specific thresholds. Quantitative studies of model validation are essential before applying a simulator for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. Here, we provide three examples of model validation aimed at testing the accuracy in providing realistic values of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, estimating the source gas fluxes using the concentration measurements through resolution of the inverse problem, and identifying potential hazardous gas dispersal scenarios. We selected three case study affected by a persistent diffusive and fumarolic degassing: i) La Solfatara crater, Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, ii) Caldeiras da Ribeira Grande, São Miguel Island, Azores and iii) Stefanos crater, Nisyros Island, Greece. We used published and original CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 flux data as input for numerical simulations run through VIGIL, an open-source workflow for parallel simulations and probabilistic output using two Eulerian models, which account for the passive and gravity-driven gas transport, respectively. Our results provided probabilistic CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration maps at 0.5-1.5 m from the ground in order to investigate the potential effects on human and animal health, and statistical tests aimed to infer the best scaling factor for gas flux in reaching hazardous gas concentrations. This kind of methodology has revelad the potential usefulness of the modeling in reproducing the order of magnitude of the observed degassing, therefore, such a testing should be the first logical step to be taken before applying a simulator to assess (gas) hazard in any other volcanic contexts.
Language:
English
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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