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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews
    Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 17 (1989), S. 309-334 
    ISSN: 0084-6597
    Source: Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 267 (1977), S. 121-124 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A possible explanation for the successful prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake is that the earthquake was triggered by a deformation front that propagated 1,000 km through NE China at a velocity of about 110 km yr−1. The various phenomena that were used to predict the ...
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 406 (2000), S. 234-234 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Sir Over the past few decades a modern theory of earthquake physics has been developed that is solidly based upon the laws of rock friction. Ironically, over that same period there has emerged a view that, alone among crustal faults, California's San Andreas fault grossly ...
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 155 (1999), S. 207-232 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Earthquakes, earthquake prediction, earthquake precursors, physics of earthquakes.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and their possible societal uses differ for those time scales. Earthquake prediction should not be equated solely with short-term prediction—those with time scales of hours to weeks—nor should it be assumed that only short-term warnings either are or might be useful to society. A variety of "consumers" or stakeholders are likely to take different mitigation measures in response to each type of prediction. A series of recent articles in scientific literature and the media claim that earthquakes cannot be predicted and that exceedingly high accuracy is needed for predictions to be of societal value. We dispute a number of their key assumptions and conclusions, including their claim that earthquakes represent a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, implying a system maintained on the edge of chaotic behavior at all times. We think this is correct but only in an uninteresting way, that is on global or continental scales. The stresses in the regions surrounding the rupture zones of individual large earthquakes are reduced below a SOC state at the times of those events and remain so for long periods. As stresses are slowly re-established by tectonic loading, a region approaches a SOC state during the last part of the cycle of large earthquakes. The presence of that state can be regarded as a long-term precursor rather than as an impediment to prediction. We examine other natural processes such as volcanic eruptions, severe storms and climate change that, like earthquakes, are also examples of complex processes, each with its own predictable, possibly predictable and inherently unpredictable elements. That a natural system is complex does not mean that predictions are not possible for some spatial, temporal and size regimes. Long-term, and perhaps intermediate-term, predictions for large earthquakes appear to be possible for very active fault segments. Predicting large events more than one cycle into the future appears to be inherently difficult, if not impossible since much of the nonlinearity in the earthquake process occurs at or near the time of large events. Progress in earthquake science and prediction over the next few decades will require increased monitoring in several active areas.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Geologische Rundschau 77 (1988), S. 319-328 
    ISSN: 1437-3262
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Description / Table of Contents: Abstract A simple rheological model of shearing of the lithosphere that has gained wide acceptance is a two layer model with an upper brittle zone in which deformation takes place by frictional sliding on discrete fault surfaces and a lower plastic zone in which deformation takes place by bulk plastic flow. The two are separated by an abrupt brittle-plastic transition, which is assumed to be indicated by the lower limit of seismicity. Experimental studies, however, as well as the deformation structures of mylonites, indicate that a broad transitional field of semi-brittle behavior lies between these extremes. This is a field of mixed mode deformation with a strength that can be expected to be considerably higher than that predicted from the extrapolation of high temperature flow laws. For quartzofeldspathic rocks the semi-brittle field lies between T1, the onset of quartz plasticity at about 300 °C and T2, feldspar plasticity at about 450 °C. A model is presented in which the transition T1 does not correspond to a transition to bulk flow but to a change from unstable, velocity-weakening friction to stable, velocity-strengthening friction. T1 thus marks the depth limit of earthquake nucleation, but large earthquakes can propagate to a greater depth, T3, (T3〈T2) which corresponds to the lower limit of dynamic frictional behavior in the semi-brittle field and approximately to the peak in strength. The zone between T1 and T3 is one of alternating behavior, with flow occurring m the interseismic period and with co-seismic dynamic slip occurring during large earthquakes. This zone is characterized by mylonites interlaced by pseudotachylytes and other signs of dynamic faulting. The transition T1 is also marked by a change in the generation mechanism of fault rocks, from abrasive wear above which produces cataclastites, to adhesive wear below, which is proposed as an important generation mechanism of mylonites in the upper part of the semi-brittle field.
    Abstract: Résumé Le modèle rhéologique de cisaillement de la lithosphère le plus largement accepté comporte deux couches superposées: une couche supérieure cassante, siège de déformations le long de surfaces discrètes, les failles, et une zone inférieure ductile ou s'opère un fluage plastique d'ensemble. La transition entre ces deux domaines est brusque et considérée comme la limite inférieure de la séismicité. L'étude des structures mylonitiques ainsi que les mesures expérimentales indiquent cependant qu'un large champ de transition à caractère «semi-cassant» s'étend entre ces deux extrêmes. Ruptures et fluage plastique sont présents dans cette zone, dont la compétence peut être considérée comme bien supérieure à celle qui résulte de l'extrapolation des lois de fluage à haute température. Pour les roches quartzofeldspathiques, ce champ «semi-cassant» s'étend de T1, seuil de plasticité du quartz (environ 300 °C) à T2, celui du feldspath (environ 450 °C). Dans ce modèle, la température T1 ne correspond pas au seuil de fluage d'ensemble, mais à la frontière entre une région de frictions «instables» qui diminuent avec la vitesse, et une région de frictions «stables» qui augmentent avec la vitesse. Elle correspond donc à la profondeur limite de genèse des séismes. Les grands séismes peuvent cependant se propager jusqu'à une profondeur T3 (T3〈T2) qui correspond à la limite inférieure du comportement dynamique des forces de frottement dans le domaine «semicassant». T3 peut être considérée approximativement comme le point de résistance maximale de cette zone de transition. La zone comprise entre T1 et T3 peut donc être le siège alternativement soit de processus de fluage, soit de glissements le long de surfaces de rupture à l'occasion de séismes de forte magnitude. Cette zone se caractérise par des mylonites entremêlées de pseudotachylites et autres signes de rupture dynamique. La transition T1 est également marquée par une modification du mécanisme de transformation des roches dans les zones de faille. Audessus de cette limite, un mécanisme d'usure «abrasif» produit des cataclasites, par opposition à un mécanisme d'usure «adhésif» en-dessous. Ce dernier mécanisme est proposé comme fort probable lors de la genèse de mylomtes dans la partie supérieure du champ «semi-cassant».
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Ein einfaches rheologisches Modell für Schervorgänge in der Lithosphäre, das eine weite Akzeptanz erreicht hat, ist das Zweilagenmodell mit einer oberen spröden Zone, in der Deformation über Reibungsgleitung entlang diskreter Störungsflächen stattfindet, und einer unteren duktilen Zone. Hier erfolgt die Deformation durch plastisches Fließen. Beide Zonen werden durch einen abrupten spröd-plastischen Übergang voneinander getrennt, der vermutlich durch die untere Grenze der nachweisbaren Seismizität angezeigt wird. Experimentelle Untersuchungen wie auch die Deformationsgefüge in Myloniten zeigen hingegen, daß ein breites Übergangsfeld mit semisprödem Verhalten zwischen diesen beiden Extremen liegt. Hier befindet sich ein Bereich »gemischter« Deformation, deren Ausmaß beträchtlich über den aus der Extrapolation von Hochtemperatur-Fließ-Gesetzmäßigkeiten ableitbaren Werten liegen dürfte. Für Quarz-Feldspat-Gesteine liegt das halbspröde Feld zwischen T1 dem Beginn der plastischen Deformation des Quarzes bei ca. 300 °C, und T2, dem Beginn der Feldspatplastizität bei ca. 450 °C. Hier wird ein Modell vorgestellt, in dem der Übergang bei T1 nicht dem Übergang zum Gesamtfließen, sondern dem Wechsel von instabiler, geschwindigkeitsreduzierender Reibung zu stabiler, geschwindigkeitskonstanter Reibung entspricht. T1 markiert damit die Tiefengrenze der Erdbebenbildung, stärkere Beben können dagegen in größere Tiefe reichen T3 (T3〈T2), die dann der unteren Grenze dynamischen Reibungsverhaltens im semispröden Bereich und angenähert dem Stärkemaximum entspricht. Die Zone zwischen T1 und T3 zeigt alternierendes Verhalten mit plastischem Fließen während interseismischer Perioden und dynamischem Gleiten während größerer Erdbeben. Diese Zone wird charakterisiert durch Mylonite und dicht zwischengepackten Pseudotachyliten sowie anderen Anzeigern dynamischer Faltung. Hinzu kommt im Bereich des Überganges T1 ein Wechsel im Bildungsmechanismus gestörter Gesteine. Er geht von durchgreifender Ermüdung, die zu Kataklasiten führt, bis zu adhesiver Ermüdung, die als wichtiger Bildungsmechanismus für Mylonite im oberen Abschnitt des semispröden Feldes angesehen wird.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 346 (1990), S. 837-839 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The calculation of deformation rates from the sum of seismic moments of earthquakes often yields good results when applied to plate boundaries1'3"5. There, slip rates are high enough that the short seismic record is still sufficiently long to characterize the long-term rate. The shortcomings of the ...
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 305 (1983), S. 621-623 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Although small earthquakes nucleate over a broad depth range within the seismogenic layer, a prominent feature of very large earthquakes is that they almost invariably nucleate near the base of the seismogenic layer. This observation is almost always true for large earthquakes for which reliable ...
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 336 (1988), S. 761-763 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The critical slip distance L is the distance that slip must occur for sliding surfaces, upon a slip velocity perturbation, to change from one steady-state friction condition to another. It is interpreted as being the distance required to change entirely the population of asperity contacts1, and so ...
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 124 (1986), S. 587-599 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Brittle fracture ; shock failure ; hydraulic fracture
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Bridgman ring experiment, in which a hard rubber ring slipped over a steel rod was observed to split when subjected to a hydrostatic confining pressure, was repeated with Pyrex glass rings. Three cases were studied, in which (a) both ring and rod were unjacketed, (b) the inner wall of the ring was sealed from the pressure medium and (c) both rod and ring were completely jacketed. In the first two cases the ring was observed to split abruptly, with a single axial crack when confining pressure reached a critical level. In the third case no abrupt failure occurred, but a number of axial cracks were found to have formed, grown stably, but not penetrated the outer wall of the ring. The first two cases are explained by hydraulic fracturing of the ring. Observations and analysis indicate that in the third case the cracks started at flaws on the inner surface of the ring and propagated outwards in a stable manner. This case, in which a tensile crack propagates in an all-around compressive stress field, provides some insight into axial cracking of rock in triaxial compression and tensile failure of rock under radial shock loading.
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 112 (1974), S. 571-581 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary A technique is described for measuring strains in rock deformation experiments by means of holographic interferometry. The method allows the entire surface displacement field of the sample to be mapped to within one-tenth the wavelength of light. Several illustrative experiments show that inhomogeneous strain, in particular bending and torsion, is commonly present in uniaxial compression experiments, and that some of this strain can be caused by the testing machine. In a creep experiment in uniaxia compression, a concentration of dilatancy was observed very early in the experiment that was spatially related to the location of the ultimate failure plane.
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