ALBERT

Description: Karst aquifers are an important source of drinking water in many regions of the world. Karst areas are highly permeable and produce large amounts of groundwater recharge, while surface runoff is often negligible. As a result, recharge in these systems may have a different sensitivity to climate and land cover changes than in other less permeable systems. However, little is known about the combined impact of climate and land cover changes in karst areas at large scales. In particular, the representation of land cover, and its controls on evapotranspiration, has been very limited in previous karst hydrological models. In this study, we address this gap (1) by introducing the first large-scale hydrological model including an explicit representation of both karst and land cover properties, and (2) by providing an in-depth analysis of the model's recharge production behaviour. To achieve these aims, we replace the empirical approach to evapotranspiration estimation of a previous large-scale karst recharge model (VarKarst) with an explicit, mechanistic and parsimonious approach in the new model (V2Karst V1.1). We demonstrate the plausibility of V2Karst simulations at four carbonate rock FLUXNET sites by assessing the model's ability to reproduce observed evapotranspiration and soil moisture patterns and by showing that the controlling modelled processes are in line with expectations. Additional virtual experiments with synthetic input data systematically explore the sensitivities of recharge to precipitation characteristics (overall amount and temporal distribution) and land cover properties. This approach confirms that these sensitivities agree with expectations and provides first insights into the potential impacts of future change. V2Karst is the first model that enables the study of the joint impacts of large-scale land cover and climate changes on groundwater recharge in karst regions.

Description: Karst aquifers are an important source of drinking water in many regions of the world. Karst areas are highly permeable and produce large amounts of groundwater recharge, while surface runoff is typically negligible. As a result, recharge in these systems may have a different sensitivity to climate and land cover changes compared to other less permeable systems. However, little effort has been directed toward assessing the impact of climate and land cover change in karst areas at large-scales. In this study, we address this gap by (1) introducing the first large-scale hydrological model including an explicit representation of both karst and land cover properties, and by (2) analysing the model's recharge production behaviour. To achieve these points, we first improve the evapotranspiration estimation of a previous large-scale karst recharge model (VarKarst). The new model (V2Karst V1.0) includes a parsimonious representation of relevant ET processes for climate and land cover change impact studies. We demonstrate the plausibility of V2Karst simulations at carbonate rock FLUXNET sites using soft rules and global sensitivity analysis. Then, we use virtual experiments with synthetic data to assess the sensitivity of simulated recharge to precipitation characteristics and land cover. Results reveal how both vegetation and soil parameters control the model behaviour, and they suggest that simulated recharge is sensitive to both precipitation (overall amount and temporal distribution) and land cover. Large-scale assessment of future karst groundwater recharge should therefore consider the combined impact of changes in land cover and precipitation properties, if it is to produce realistic projections of future change impacts.