ALBERT

Description: Coccolithophores are an important component of the Earth system, and, as calcifiers, their possible susceptibility to ocean acidification is of major concern. Laboratory studies at enhanced pCO2 levels have produced divergent results without overall consensus. However, it has been predicted from these studies that, although calcification may not be depressed in all species, acidification will produce “a transition in dominance from more to less heavily calcified coccolithophores” [Ridgwell A, et al., (2009) Biogeosciences 6:2611–2623]. A recent observational study [Beaufort L, et al., (2011) Nature 476:80–83] also suggested that coccolithophores are less calcified in more acidic conditions. We present the results of a large observational study of coccolithophore morphology in the Bay of Biscay. Samples were collected once a month for over a year, along a 1,000-km-long transect. Our data clearly show that there is a pronounced seasonality in the morphotypes of Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophore species. Whereas pH and CaCO3 saturation are lowest in winter, the E. huxleyi population shifts from 90% (winter) of the heavily calcified form. However, it is unlikely that the shifts in carbonate chemistry alone caused the morphotype shift. Our finding that the most heavily calcified morphotype dominates when conditions are most acidic is contrary to the earlier predictions and raises further questions about the fate of coccolithophores in a high-CO2 world.

Description: A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ~ 780 ppmv is based on a study using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene–Oligocene transition ~ 34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from a number of different climate models (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter. However, with the exception of HadCM3L and its reduced complexity version FAMOUS, the simulations suggest the growth of an intermediate sized ice sheet (〉 25 m sea level equivalent) for atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the range of 560–920 ppmv, which is consistent with previous studies.

Description: Recent studies, utilising a range of proxies, indicate that a significant perturbation to global hydrology occurred at the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 Ma). An enhanced hydrological cycle for the warm early Eocene is also suggested to have played a key role in maintaining high-latitude warmth during this interval. However, comparisons of proxy data to General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised, despite significant differences in simulated surface temperatures. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P-E distributions within the EoMIP ensemble (Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously-published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure and precipitation relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to preindustrial. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, although the effects of differences in paleogeography/ice sheets are also of importance in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally-averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP/dT) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that a number of GCMs underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences apparent between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Description: A frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of ~780 ppmv is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene–Oligocene transition ~34 Ma. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter.

Description: This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10–11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled ‘Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?’, brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

Description: frequently cited atmospheric CO2 threshold for the onset of Antarctic glaciation of approximately780 parts per million by volume is based on the study of DeConto and Pollard (2003) using an ice sheet model and the GENESIS climate model. Proxy records suggest that atmospheric CO2 concentrations passed through this threshold across the Eocene-Oligocene transition approximately 34 million years. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been close to this threshold earlier than this transition, which is used by some to suggest the possibility of Antarctic ice sheets during the Eocene. Here we investigate the climate model dependency of the threshold for Antarctic glaciation by performing offline ice sheet model simulations using the climate from 7 different climate models with Eocene boundary conditions (HadCM3L, CCSM3, CESM1.0, GENESIS, FAMOUS, ECHAM5 and GISS_ER). These climate simulations are sourced from a number of independent studies, and as such the boundary conditions, which are poorly constrained during the Eocene, are not identical between simulations. The results of this study suggest that the atmospheric CO2 threshold for Antarctic glaciation is highly dependent on the climate model used and the climate model configuration. A large discrepancy between the climate model and ice sheet model grids for some simulations leads to a strong sensitivity to the lapse rate parameter.

Description: Coccolithophores are an important component of the Earth system, and, as calcifiers, their possible susceptibility to ocean acidification is of major concern. Laboratory studies at enhanced pCO2 levels have produced divergent results without overall consensus. However, it has been predicted from these studies that, although calcification may not be depressed in all species, acidification will produce "a transition in dominance from more to less heavily calcified coccolithophores"Ridgwell A, et al., (2009) Biogeosciences 6:2611-2623. A recent observational study Beaufort L, et al., (2011) Nature 476:80-83 also suggested that coccolithophores are less calcified in more acidic conditions.We present the results of a large observational study of coccolithophore morphology in the Bay of Biscay. Samples were collected once a month for over a year, along a 1,000-km-long transect. Our data clearly show that there is a pronounced seasonality in the morphotypes of Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophore species. Whereas pH and CaCO 3saturation are lowest in winter, the E. huxleyi population shifts from 〈10% (summer) to >90% (winter) of the heavily calcified form. However, it is unlikely that the shifts in carbonate chemistry alone caused the morphotype shift. Our finding that the most heavily calcified morphotype dominates when conditions are most acidic is contrary to the earlier predictions and raises further questions about the fate of coccolithophores in a high-CO2 world.