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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: A statistical passive microwave intensity estimation (PMW-IE) algorithm for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and northeastern and central Pacific basins is developed and tested. The algorithm is derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) 85-GHz brightness temperatures and near-surface rain-rate retrievals to provide objective estimates of current maximum sustained surface winds (Vmax) and 6-h future Vmax of TCs. The full record of TRMM data (1998–2013) including 2326 TMI overpasses of 503 TCs is separated into dependent samples (1998–2010) for model development and independent samples (2011–13) for model verification. The best track intensities are used as dependent variables in a stepwise multiple-regression approach. Separately for each basin, three regression models are derived using selected 1) 85-GHz-only variables, 2) rain-rate-only variables, and 3) combined 85-GHz and rain variables. The algorithms are evaluated using independent samples and those with contemporaneous aircraft-reconnaissance measurements. Rain-only and combined models perform better than the 85-GHz-only model. Lower errors are found for estimating the 6-h future Vmax than estimating the current Vmax using all three models. This suggests that it is optimal to use passive-microwave-retrieved rain variables observed a few hours earlier to estimate TC intensity. The MAE (RMSE) of 6-h future Vmax is 9 (12) kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) when testing the combined models with ATL and EPA independent samples. Aircraft-reconnaissance-based independent samples yields a MAE of 9.6 kt and RMSE of 12.6 kt for estimating 6-h future Vmax.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-08-03
    Description: Both low and higher wavenumber asymmetries of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation are quantified from 16 years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager rainfall estimates using Fourier decomposition. The energy spectrum of rainfall perturbation and impacts of the storm motion and vertical wind shear to the rainfall asymmetry are analyzed. It is found that the wavenumber 1 perturbation only contributes 37% of the total perturbation energy of total TC precipitation, while over 70% of the total perturbation energy is from the sum of wavenumbers 1 through 6. Most of the total precipitation asymmetry is from the heavy precipitation, and contributions for light and moderate precipitation types are small. The maximum motion-relative precipitation asymmetry is generally located down motion but shifts cyclonically after adding wavenumber 2–6 components to wavenumber 1. The asymmetry index of wavenumber 1 and 1–6 asymmetries relative to the vertical wind shear is about 2 to 3 times as large as that relative to the storm motion. The vertical wind shear is a more important factor than the storm motion in producing precipitation asymmetry, especially for the wavenumber 1. A dominant downshear left wavenumber-1 asymmetry maximum is found regardless of the shear vector orientation to the TC motion, the magnitude of the shear value, and the speed of TC motion. However, the maximum asymmetry of wavenumber 1–6 asymmetry becomes downshear right for the subgroup with low shear, fast motion, and the shear vector left to the motion. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 2169-897X
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-8996
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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