ALBERT

Description: The on-going glacier shrinkage in the Alps requires frequent updates of glacier outlines to provide an accurate database for monitoring or modeling purposes (e.g. determination of run-off, mass balance, or future glacier extent) and other applications. With the launch of the first Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite in 2015, it became possible to create a consistent, Alpine-wide glacier inventory with an unprecedented spatial resolution of 10 m. Fortunately, already the first S2 images acquired in August 2015 provided excellent mapping conditions for most of the glacierised regions in the Alps. We have used this opportunity to compile a new Alpine-wide glacier inventory in a collaborative team effort. In all countries, glacier outlines from the latest national inventories have been used as a guide to compile a consistent update. However, cloud cover over many glaciers in Italy required including also S2 scenes from 2016. Whereas the automated mapping of clean glacier ice was straightforward using the band ratio method, the numerous debris-covered glaciers required intense manual editing. The uncertainty in the outlines was determined with multiple digitising of 14 glaciers by all participants. Topographic information for all glaciers was derived from the ALOS AW3D30 DEM. Overall, we derived a total glacier area of 1806 ±60 km² when considering 4394 glaciers 〉0.01 km². This is 14% (-1.2%/a) less than the 2100 km² derived from Landsat scenes acquired in 2003 and indicating an unabated continuation of glacier shrinkage in the Alps since the mid-1980s. Due to the higher spatial resolution of S2 many small glaciers were additionally mapped in the new inventory or increased in size compared to 2003. An artificial reduction to the former extents would thus result in an even higher overall area loss. Still, the uncertainty assessment revealed locally considerable differences in interpretation of debris-covered glaciers, resulting in limitations for change assessment when using glacier extents digitised by different analysts.

Description: This study explores the potential of different predictor strategies for improving the performance of regression-based downscaling approaches. The investigated local-scale target variables are precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and global radiation, all at a daily time scale. Observations of these target variables are assessed from three sites in close proximity to mountain glaciers: 1) the Vernagtbach station in the European Alps, 2) the Artesonraju measuring site in the tropical South American Andes, and 3) the Mount Brewster measuring site in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The large-scale dataset being evaluated is the ERA-Interim dataset. In the downscaling procedure, particular emphasis is put on developing efficient yet not overfit models from the limited information in the temporally short (typically a few years) observational records of the high mountain sites. For direct (univariate) predictors, optimum scale analysis turns out to be a powerful means to improve the forecast skill without the need to increase the downscaling model complexity. Yet the traditional (multivariate) predictor sets show generally higher skill than the direct predictors for all variables, sites, and days of the year. Only in the case of large sampling uncertainty (identified here to particularly affect observed precipitation) is the use of univariate predictor options justified. Overall, the authors find a range in forecast skill among the different predictor options applied in the literature up to 0.5 (where 0 indicates no skill, and 1 represents perfect skill). This highlights that a sophisticated predictor selection (as presented in this study) is essential in the development of realistic, local-scale scenarios by means of downscaling.

Description: Glacio-hydrological models combine both glacier and catchment hydrology modeling and are used to assess the hydrological response of high-mountain glacierized catchments to climate change. To capture the uncertainties from these model combinations, it is essential to compare the outcomes of several model entities forced with the same climate projections. For the first time, we compare the results of two completely independent glacio-hydrological models: (i) HQsim-GEM and (ii) AMUNDSEN. In contrast to prevailing studies, we use distinct glacier models and glacier initialization times. At first glance, the results achieved for future glacier states and hydrological characteristics in the Rofenache catchment in Ötztal Alps (Austria) appear to be similar and consistent, but a closer look reveals clear differences. What can be learned from this study is that low-complexity models can achieve higher accuracy in the calibration period. This is advantageous especially when data availability is weak, and priority is given to efficient computation time. Furthermore, the time and method of glacier initialization play an important role due to different data requirements. In essence, it is not possible to make conclusions about the model performance outside of the calibration period or more specifically in the future. Hence, similar to climate modeling, we suggest considering different modeling approaches when assessing future catchment discharge or glacier evolution. Especially when transferring the results to stakeholders, it is vital to transparently communicate the bandwidth of future states that come with all model results.

Description: The ongoing glacier shrinkage in the Alps requires frequent updates of glacier outlines to provide an accurate database for monitoring, modelling purposes (e.g. determination of run-off, mass balance, or future glacier extent), and other applications. With the launch of the first Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite in 2015, it became possible to create a consistent, Alpine-wide glacier inventory with an unprecedented spatial resolution of 10 m. The first S2 images from August 2015 already provided excellent mapping conditions for most glacierized regions in the Alps and were used as a base for the compilation of a new Alpine-wide glacier inventory in a collaborative team effort. In all countries, glacier outlines from the latest national inventories have been used as a guide to compile an update consistent with the respective previous interpretation. The automated mapping of clean glacier ice was straightforward using the band ratio method, but the numerous debris-covered glaciers required intense manual editing. Cloud cover over many glaciers in Italy required also including S2 scenes from 2016. The outline uncertainty was determined with digitizing of 14 glaciers several times by all participants. Topographic information for all glaciers was obtained from the ALOS AW3D30 digital elevation model (DEM). Overall, we derived a total glacier area of 1806±60 km2 when considering 4395 glaciers 〉0.01 km2. This is 14 % (−1.2 % a−1) less than the 2100 km2 derived from Landsat in 2003 and indicates an unabated continuation of glacier shrinkage in the Alps since the mid-1980s. It is a lower-bound estimate, as due to the higher spatial resolution of S2 many small glaciers were additionally mapped or increased in size compared to 2003. Median elevations peak around 3000 m a.s.l., with a high variability that depends on location and aspect. The uncertainty assessment revealed locally strong differences in interpretation of debris-covered glaciers, resulting in limitations for change assessment when using glacier extents digitized by different analysts. The inventory is available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.909133 (Paul et al., 2019).

Description: A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–16 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (〉 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century, however decreases of 25–80 % in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

Description: A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (〉 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

Description: We have reconstructed the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Engadine, Switzerland, with a two-dimensional energy-balance model for the period 1865–2005. The model takes into account a parameterization of the surface energy fluxes, an albedo that decreases exponentially with snow depth as well as the shading effect of the surrounding mountains. The model was first calibrated with a 5 year record of annual balance measurements made at 20 different sites on the glacier between 2001 and 2006 using meteorological data from surrounding weather stations as input. To force the model for the period starting in 1865, we employed monthly temperature and precipitation records from nearby valley stations. The model reproduces the observed annual balance reasonably well, except for the lower part during the warmest years. Most crucial to the results is the altitudinal precipitation gradient, but this factor is hard to quantify from the limited precipitation data at high elevations. The simulation shows an almost continuous mass loss since 1865, with short interruptions around 1920, 1935 and 1980. A trend towards a more negative annual balance can be observed since the beginning of the 1980s. The simulated cumulative mass balance for the entire period 1865–2005 was found to be –46mw.e.