Publication Date:
2009-09-12
Description:
Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2880578/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2880578/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Yang, Yang -- Sugimoto, Jonathan D -- Halloran, M Elizabeth -- Basta, Nicole E -- Chao, Dennis L -- Matrajt, Laura -- Potter, Gail -- Kenah, Eben -- Longini, Ira M Jr -- R01 AI032042/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- R01 AI032042-16/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- R01-AI32042/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- U01 GM070749/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- U01 GM070749-07/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- U01-GM070749/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):729-33. doi: 10.1126/science.1177373. Epub 2009 Sep 10.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19745114" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Adolescent
;
Adult
;
Child
;
Computer Simulation
;
Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control
;
Family Health
;
Female
;
Housing
;
Humans
;
*Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
;
Influenza Vaccines/immunology
;
Influenza, Human/epidemiology/immunology/*prevention & control/*transmission
;
Male
;
Mexico/epidemiology
;
Schools
;
United States/epidemiology
;
Young Adult
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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