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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 5100–5121, doi:10.1175/JCLI3902.1.
    Description: Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Climate prediction ; Variational studies ; Tropical variability ; North Atlantic Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98 (2017): 737-752, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0057.1.
    Description: For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.
    Description: The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF; OCE-1259102, OCE-1259103, OCE-1259618, OCE-1258823, OCE-1259210, OCE-1259398, OCE-0136215, and OCE-1005697); the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI), the WHOI Independent Research and Development (IRD) Program, and the WHOI Postdoctoral Scholar Program; the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; NE/K010875/1, NE/K010700/1, R8-H12-85, FASTNEt NE/I030224/1, NE/K010972/1, NE/K012932/1, and NE/M018024/1); the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (NACLIM project, 308299 and 610055); the German Federal Ministry and Education German Research RACE Program; the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC; RGPIN 227438-09, RGPIN 04357, and RG-PCC 433898); Fisheries and Oceans Canada; the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC; 41521091, U1406401); the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China; the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER); the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS); the French National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU); the French national program LEFE; and the French Oceanographic Fleet (TGIR FOF).
    Description: 2017-10-24
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Johnson, H. L., Cessi, P., Marshall, D. P., Schloesser, F., & Spall, M. A. Recent contributions of theory to our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 124(8), (2019): 5376-5399, doi: 10.1029/2019JC015330.
    Description: Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models.
    Description: H. L. J. and D. P. M. are grateful for funding from the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council under the UK‐OSNAP project (NE/K010948/1). P. C. gratefully acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation through OCE‐1634128. M. A. S. was supported by the National Science Foundation Grants OCE‐1558742 and OCE‐1634468. We are also grateful to Eli Tziperman and an anonymous reviewer whose comments helped us to improve the manuscript. The Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (ECCO version 4 release 3) used to produce Figure 2 is available online (https://ecco.jpl.nasa.gov). Please refer to the original papers reviewed here for access to any other data discussed.
    Keywords: Atlantic ; Overturning circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-05-02
    Print ISSN: 1754-2189
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-2799
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 5
  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-01
    Description: For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-10-01
    Description: The presence of large-scale Ekman pumping associated with the climatological wind stress curl is the textbook explanation for low biological activity in the subtropical gyres. Using an idealized, eddy-resolving model, it is shown that Eulerian-mean Ekman pumping may be opposed by an eddy-driven circulation, analogous to the way in which the atmospheric Ferrel cell and the Southern Ocean Deacon cell are opposed by eddy-driven circulations. Lagrangian particle tracking, potential vorticity fluxes, and depth–density streamfunctions are used to show that, in the model, the rectified effect of eddies acts to largely cancel the Eulerian-mean Ekman downwelling. To distinguish this effect from eddy compensation, it is proposed that the suppression of Eulerian-mean downwelling by eddies be called “eddy cancellation.”
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-07-19
    Description: Barotropic eddy fluxes are analyzed through a geometric decomposition of the eddy stress tensor. Specifically, the geometry of the eddy variance ellipse, a two-dimensional visualization of the stress tensor describing the mean eddy shape and tilt, is used to elucidate eddy propagation and eddy feedback on the mean flow. Linear shear and jet profiles are analyzed and theoretical results are compared against fully nonlinear simulations. For flows with zero planetary vorticity gradient, analytic solutions for the eddy ellipse tilt and anisotropy are obtained that provide a direct relationship between the eddy tilt and the phase difference of a normal-mode solution. This allows a straightforward interpretation of the eddy–mean flow interaction in terms of classical stability theory: the initially unstable jet gives rise to eddies that are tilted “against the shear” and extract energy from the mean flow; once the jet stabilizes, eddies become tilted “with the shear” and return their energy to the mean flow. For a nonzero planetary vorticity gradient, ray-tracing theory is used to predict ellipse geometry and its impact on eddy propagation within a jet. An analytic solution for the eddy tilt is found for a Rossby wave on a constant background shear. The ray-tracing results broadly agree with the eddy tilt diagnosed from a fully nonlinear simulation.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-04-22
    Description: Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-12-01
    Description: Zonally averaged models of the ocean overturning circulation miss important zonal exchanges of waters between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans. A two-layer, two-basin model that accounts for these exchanges is introduced and suggests that in the present-day climate the overturning circulation is best described as the combination of three circulations: an adiabatic overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean associated with transformation of intermediate to deep waters in the north, a diabatic overturning circulation in the Indo-Pacific Ocean associated with transformation of abyssal to deep waters by mixing, and an interbasin circulation that exchanges waters geostrophically between the two oceans through the Southern Ocean. These results are supported both by theoretical analysis of the two-layer, two-basin model and by numerical simulations of a three-dimensional ocean model.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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