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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-06-01
    Description: A World Meteorological Organization weather and climate extremes committee has judged that the world’s longest reported distance for a single lightning flash occurred with a horizontal distance of 321 km (199.5 mi) over Oklahoma in 2007, while the world’s longest reported duration for a single lightning flash is an event that lasted continuously for 7.74 s over southern France in 2012. In addition, the committee has unanimously recommended amendment of the AMS Glossary of Meteorology definition of lightning discharge as a “series of electrical processes taking place within 1 s” by removing the phrase “within 1 s” and replacing it with “continuously.” Validation of these new world extremes 1) demonstrates the recent and ongoing dramatic augmentations and improvements to regional lightning detection and measurement networks, 2) provides reinforcement regarding the dangers of lightning, and 3) provides new information for lightning engineering concerns.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-09-01
    Description: Total lightning observations that will be available from the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) have the potential to be useful in the initialization of convection-resolving numerical weather models, particularly in areas where other types of convective-scale observations are sparse or nonexistent. This study used the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to assimilate real-data pseudo-GLM flash extent density (FED) observations at convection-resolving scale for a nonsevere multicell storm case (6 June 2000) and a tornadic supercell case (8 May 2003).For each case, pseudo-GLM FED observations were generated from ground-based lightning mapping array data with a spacing approximately equal to the nadir pixel width of the GLM, and tests were done to examine different FED observation operators and the utility of temporally averaging observations to smooth rapid variations in flash rates.The best results were obtained when assimilating 1-min temporal resolution data using any of three observation operators that utilized graupel mass or graupel volume. Each of these three observation operators performed well for both the weak, disorganized convection of the multicell case and the much more intense convection of the supercell case.An observation operator using the noninductive charging rate performed poorly compared to the graupel mass and graupel volume operators, a result that appears likely to be due to the inability of the noninductive charging rate to account for advection of space charge after charge separation occurs.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-10-25
    Description: This work evaluates the performance of the assimilation of total lightning data within a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) framework for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 24 May 2011 tornado outbreak using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at convection-allowing scales. Between the lifted condensation level and a fixed upper height, pseudo-observations for water vapor mass first are created based on either the flash extent densities derived from Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array data or the lightning source densities derived from the Earth Networks pulse data, and then assimilated by the 3DVAR system. Assimilation of radar data with 3DVAR and a cloud analysis algorithm (RAD) also are performed as a baseline for comparison and in tandem with lightning to evaluate the added value of this lightning data assimilation (LDA) method. Given a scenario wherein the control experiment without radar or lightning data assimilation fails to accurately initiate and forecast the observed storms, the LDA and RAD yield comparable short-term forecast improvements. The RAD alone produces storms of similar strength to the observations during the first 30 min of forecast more rapidly than the LDA alone; however, the LDA is able to better depict individual supercellular features at 1-h forecast. When both the lightning and radar data are assimilated, the 30-min forecast showed noteworthy improvements over RAD in terms of the model’s ability to better resolve individual supercell structures and still maintained a 1-h forecast similar to that from the LDA. The results chiefly illustrate the potential value of assimilating total lightning data along with radar data.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-02-01
    Description: This study investigates relationships between storm-scale properties and the electrification and lightning of two simulations of an intensifying idealized tropical cyclone (TC) using the cloud-resolving Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS). To produce an intensifying storm, an initial weak TC is subjected to a linear increase in sea surface temperature.As the TC intensifies, lightning flash rates increase in both the inner core (r ≤ 100 km) and outer region (100 〈 r ≤ 300 km). As time progresses, lightning in the outer region gradually decreases, while the inner-core lightning remains relatively steady. Bootstrapped correlation statistics using 1000 random samples between the pressure trace and time series of lightning rates shows a statistically significant negative correlation between inner-core lightning and TC intensification. Lightning rates in the outer bands were found to lag minimum surface pressure by 12 h.The increases in lightning in both the inner core and outer region coincided well with increases in 0.5 g kg−1 graupel and 5 m s−1 updraft volumes in each respective region. Correlation statistics with selected kinematic and microphysical variables known to be associated with lightning in thunderstorms, such as the ice water path, integrated updraft volume, and graupel volume, revealed that their increase in the inner core indicated an ongoing deepening, similar to the lightning. Trends in these proxy variables in the outer bands were also found to lag TC intensification by 12 h.Overall, the best linear relationships with lightning in either the inner core or the outer region were obtained with the 0.5 g kg−1 graupel volume and total graupel mass.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-08-01
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-06-01
    Description: Relationships between intensity fluctuations, cloud microphysics, lightning variations, and electrical structures within idealized tropical cyclones are investigated with the cloud-resolving Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS). An initial strong tropical cyclone is subjected to either steady-state control conditions (CTRL), increased wind shear (SHEAR), or a reduction in sea surface temperature (SST). In CTRL, nearly all the lightning (〉95%) occurred in the outer region (100 〈 r ≤ 300 km) and was overall very episodic in the inner core (r ≤ 100 km), consistent with observations. The inner-core updrafts were weaker and experienced greater depletion of cloud water by warm rain processes, which, in contrast to the deeper updrafts in the rainband convection, reduced the mixed-phase cloud depth and confined the bulk of the charging and lightning initiations to lower levels. Notably, larger flash rates were produced in the asymmetric inner core of the SHEAR case, with the majority of the flashes located in the downshear left quadrant, consistent with prior observational works. In contrast to CTRL, the more vigorous inner-core convection in SHEAR resulted in the formation of a prominent negative charge region and enhanced production of negative ground flashes. With a nearly identical filling rate as SHEAR, the introduction of cooler sea surface temperature in the SST case caused lightning activity to fade rapidly in both the inner core and rainbands.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Forecasts of high-impact weather conditions using convection-allowing numerical weather prediction models have been found to be highly sensitive to the selection of cloud microphysics scheme used within the system. The Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project has developed a rapid-cycling, convection-allowing, data assimilation and forecasting system known as the NSSL Experimental WoF System for ensembles (NEWS-e), which is designed to utilize advanced cloud microphysics schemes. NEWS-e currently (2017–18) uses the double-moment NSSL variable density scheme (NVD), which has been shown to generate realistic representations of convective precipitation within the system. However, very little verification on nonprecipitating cloud features has been performed with this system. During the 2017 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) experiment, an overestimation of the areal coverage of convectively generated cirrus clouds was observed. Changing the cloud microphysics scheme to Thompson generated more accurate cloud fields. This research undertook the task of improving the cloud analysis generated by NVD while maintaining its skill for other variables such as reflectivity. Adjustments to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), fall speed, and collection efficiencies were made and tested over a set of six severe weather cases occurring during May 2017. This research uses an object-based verification approach in which objects of cold infrared brightness temperatures, high cloud-top pressures, and cloud water path are generated from model output and compared against GOES-13 observations. Results show that the modified NVD scheme generated much more skillful forecasts of cloud objects than the original formulation without having a negative impact on the skill of simulated composite reflectivity forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-08-30
    Description: Large-eddy-resolving simulations using the Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS), which contains microphysical charging and branched-lightning parameterizations, produce much more complex net charge structures than conventionally visualized from previous observations, simulations, and conceptual diagrams. Many processes contribute to the hydrometeor charge budget within a thunderstorm, including advection, hydrometeor differential sedimentation, subgrid turbulent mixing and diffusion, ion drift, microphysical separation, and the attachment of ion charge deposited by the lightning channel. The lightning deposition, sedimentation, and noninductive charging tendencies contribute the most overall charge at relatively large scales, while the advection tendency, from resolved turbulence, provides the most “texture” at small scales to the net charge density near the updraft region of the storm. The scale separation increases for stronger storm simulations. In aggregate, lightning deposition and sedimentation resemble the smoother distribution of the electric potential, while evidence suggests individual flashes could be responding to the fine texture in the net charge. The clear scale separation between the advection and other net charge tendencies suggest the charge advection is most capable of providing net charge texture; however, a clear-cut causality is not obtained from this study.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-09-28
    Description: A three-moment bulk microphysics scheme is modified to treat melting in a size-dependent manner that emulates results from a spectral bin scheme. The three-moment bulk framework allows the distribution shape to change and accommodate some direct effects of melting on both the hail and raindrop size distributions. Reflectivity changes and shed raindrop sizes are calculated over discrete size ranges of the hail particle spectrum. Smaller ice particles are treated as melting into drops of the same mass, whereas large particles shed drops as they melt. As small ice particles are lost, the size spectrum naturally becomes narrower and the mean size of small hail can increase. Large hail with a narrow spectrum, however, can decrease in size from melting. A substantial effect is seen on the rain median volume diameter when small drops are shed from large melting hail. The NSSL bulk scheme is compared with bin microphysics in steady-state hail shafts and in a supercell storm case. It is also shown that melting (or any substantial removal of mass) induces gravitational size sorting in bulk microphysics to increase hail size despite the design of the process rates to maintain the mean size of the melting ice. This unintended side effect can be a correct behavior for small hail, but not for large hail with a narrow distribution, when mean hail size should decrease by melting.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: The recent successful deployment of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on board the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R series (GOES-16/17) provides nearly uniform spatiotemporal measurements of total lightning (intracloud plus cloud to ground) over the Americas and adjacent vast oceanic regions. This study evaluates the potential value of assimilating GLM-derived water vapor mixing ratio on short-term (≤6 h), cloud-scale (dx = 1.5 km) forecasts of five severe weather events over the Great Plains of the United States using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system. Toward a more systematic assimilation of real GLM data, this study conducted sensitivity tests aimed at evaluating the impact of the horizontal decorrelation length scale, DA cycling frequency, and the time window size for accumulating GLM lightning observations prior to the DA. Forecast statistics aggregated over all five cases suggested that an optimal forecast performance is obtained when lightning measurements are accumulated over a 10-min interval and GLM-derived water vapor mixing ratio values are assimilated every 15 min with a horizontal decorrelation length scale of 3 km. This suggested configuration for the GLM DA together with companion experiments (i) not assimilating any data, (ii) assimilating radar data only, and (iii) assimilating both GLM and radar data were evaluated for the same five cases. Overall, GLM data have shown potential to help improve the short-term (
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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