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  • 1
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    Insights into the Evolving Microphysical and Kinematic Structure of Northeastern U.S. Winter Storms from Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-12-16
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Historical Evaluation and Future Prediction of Eastern North American and Western Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models during the Cool Season (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-09-09
    Description: Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979–2004) and three future periods (2009–38, 2039–68, and 2069–98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less underprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%–30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%–20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%–40% more intense (
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    The Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Organized Convective Structures over the Northeast and Their Ambient Conditions (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2010-12-01
    Description: Organized convective structures over the northeastern United States were classified for two warm seasons (May–August) using 2-km composite radar [i.e., the National Operational Weather Radar (NOWrad)] data. Nine structures were identified: three types of cellular convection (clusters of cells, isolated cells, and broken lines), five types of linear convection (lines with no stratiform precipitation, lines with trailing stratiform precipitation, lines with parallel stratiform precipitation, lines with leading stratiform precipitation, and bow echoes), and one nonlinear system. The occurrence of all structures decreases from the western Appalachian slopes eastward to the Atlantic coast. Isolated cellular convection forms primarily during the morning to late afternoon (1200–2100 UTC) mainly over the high terrain. Clusters of cells form primarily over the Appalachians and the Atlantic coastal plain during the daytime (1200–0000 UTC). Linear convection is favored from midafternoon to early evening (1800–0000 UTC) over land areas. Nonlinear systems develop mainly from midafternoon to late evening (1800–0600 UTC) over the inland areas and over the coastal zone during the early morning (∼1200 UTC). Composites using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) highlight the ambient conditions for three main convective structures: cellular, linear, and nonlinear. Cellular convection initiates with limited quasigeostrophic forcing and moderate instability [i.e., average most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) ∼973 J kg−1]. A majority of cells develop in orographically favored upslope areas. Linear convection organizes along surface troughs, supported by 900-hPa frontogenesis and an average ambient MUCAPE of ∼1011 J kg−1. Nonlinear convection organizes along warm fronts associated with larger-scale baroclinic systems, and the MUCAPE is relatively small (∼207 J kg−1).
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Ambient Conditions Associated with the Maintenance and Decay of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems Crossing the Northeastern U.S. Coast (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) crossing the Atlantic coastline over the northeastern United States were classified into three categories based on their evolution upon encountering the coast. Composite analyses show that convective lines that decay near the Atlantic coast or slowly decay over the coastal waters are associated with 900–800-hPa frontogenesis, with greater ambient 0–3-km vertical wind shear for the slowly decaying lines. Systems that maintain their intensity over the coastal ocean are associated with 900-hPa warm air advection, but with little low-level frontogenetical forcing. Neither sea surface temperature nor ambient instability was a clear delimiter between the three evolutions. Sustaining convective lines have the strongest environmental 0–3-km shear of the three types, and this shear increases as these systems approach the coast. In contrast, the low-level shear decreases as decaying and slowly decaying convective lines move toward the Atlantic coastline. There was also a weaker mean surface cold pool for the sustaining systems than the two types of decaying QLCSs, which may favor a more long-lived system if the horizontal vorticity from this cold pool is more balanced by low-level vertical shear.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Tornadoes in the New York Metropolitan Region: Climatology and Multiscale Analysis of Two Events (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-01
    Description: This paper describes the climatology of tornadoes around New York City (NYC) and Long Island (LI), New York, and the structural evolution of two tornadic events that affected NYC on 8 August 2007 and 16 September 2010. Nearly half (18 of 34 events from 1950 to 2010) of NYC–LI tornadoes developed between 0500 and 1300 EDT, and August is the peak tornado month as compared to July for most of the northeast United States. A spatial composite highlights the approaching midlevel trough, moderate most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), and frontogenesis along a low-level baroclinic zone. Shortly before the early morning tornadoes on 8 August 2007, a mesoscale convective system intensified in the lee of the Appalachians in a region of low-level frontogenesis and moderate MUCAPE (~1500 J kg−1). Warm advection at low levels and evaporative cooling within an elevated mixed layer (EML) ahead of the mesoscale convective system (MCS) helped steepen the low-level lapse rates. Meanwhile, a surface mesolow along a quasi-stationary frontal zone enhanced the warm advection and low-level shear. The late afternoon event on 16 September 2010 was characterized by a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) that also featured an EML aloft, a surface mesolow just west of NYC, low-level frontogenesis, and a southerly low-level jet ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. The QLCS intensified approaching NYC and generated mesovortices as the QLCS bowed outward. These cases illustrate the benefit of high-density surface observations, terminal Doppler radars, and sounding profiles from commercial aircraft for nowcasting these events.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-12-01
    Description: This study documents the convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe storms (wind, hail, and tornado) over the northeastern United States for two warm seasons (May–August), including 2007 and a warm season comprising randomly selected days from 2002 to 2006. The storms were classified into three main convective organizational structures (cellular, linear, and nonlinear) as well as several subcategories. The same procedure was applied to the highly populated coastal zone of the northeastern United States, including New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New York. The coastal analysis included six warm seasons from 2002 to 2007. Over the Northeast, severe wind events are evenly distributed among the cellular, linear, and nonlinear structures. Cellular structures are the primary hail producers, while tornadoes develop mainly from cellular and linear structures. Over the coastal zone, primarily cellular and linear systems produce severe wind and hail, while tornadoes are equally likely from all three convective structures. Composites were generated for severe weather days over the coastal region for the three main convective structures. On average, severe cellular events develop during moderate instability [most unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) ~1200 J kg−1], with low-level warm-air advection and frontogenesis at the leading edge of a thermal ridge collocated with an Appalachian lee trough. Severe linear events develop in a similar mean environment as the cellular events, except that most linear events occur with a surface trough upstream over the Ohio River valley and half of the linear events develop just ahead of progressive midlevel troughs. Nonlinear severe events develop with relatively weak mean convective instability (MUCAPE ~460 J kg−1), but they are supported by midlevel quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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