ALBERT

Description: The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.

Description: The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.

Description: In this study, we analyze the dynamics of multi-year droughts over the western and central Mediterranean for the period of 850–2099 CE using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.1. Overall, the model is able to realistically represent droughts over this region, although it shows some biases in representing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and mesoscale phenomena that are relevant in the context of droughts over the region. The analysis of the simulations shows that there is a discrepancy among diverse drought metrics in representing duration and frequencies of past droughts in the western and central Mediterranean. The self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index identifies droughts with significantly longer duration than other drought indices during 850–1849 CE. This re-affirms the necessity of assessing a variety of drought indices in drought studies in the paleoclimate context as well. Independent of the choice of the drought index, the analysis of the period 850–1849 CE suggests that Mediterranean droughts are mainly driven by internal variability of the climate system rather than external forcing. Strong volcanic eruptions show no connection to dry conditions but instead are connected to wet conditions over the Mediterranean. The analysis further shows that Mediterranean droughts are characterized by a barotropic high-pressure system together with a positive temperature anomaly over central Europe. This pattern occurs in all seasons of drought years, with stronger amplitudes during winter and spring. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and ENSO are also involved during Mediterranean multi-year droughts, showing that droughts occur more frequently with positive NAO and La Niña-like conditions. These modes of variability play a more important role during the initial stage of droughts. As a result, the persistence of multi-year droughts is determined by the interaction between the regional atmospheric and soil moisture variables, i.e., the land–atmosphere feedbacks, during the transition years of droughts. These feedbacks are intensified during the period 1850–2099 CE due to the anthropogenic influence, thus reducing the role of modes of variability on droughts in this period. Eventually, the land–atmosphere feedbacks induce a constant dryness over the Mediterranean region for the late 21st century relative to the period 1000–1849 CE.

Description: In this study, we analyze extreme daily precipitation during the pre-industrial period from 1501 BCE to 1849 CE in simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2. A peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value analysis is employed to examine characteristics of extreme precipitation and to identify connections of extreme precipitation with the external forcing and with modes of internal variability. The POT analysis shows that extreme precipitation with similar statistical characteristics, i.e., the probability density distributions, tends to cluster spatially. There are differences in the distribution of extreme precipitation between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors and between the northern high and southern low latitudes. Extreme precipitation during the pre-industrial period is largely influenced by modes of internal variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American, and Pacific South American patterns, among others, and regional surface temperatures. In general, the modes of variability exhibit a statistically significant connection to extreme precipitation in the vicinity to their regions of action. The exception is ENSO, which shows more widespread influence on extreme precipitation across the Earth. In addition, the regions with which extreme precipitation is more associated, either by a mode of variability or by the regional surface temperature, are distinguished. Regional surface temperatures are associated with extreme precipitation over lands at the extratropical latitudes and over the tropical oceans. In other regions, the influence of modes of variability is still dominant. Effects of the changes in the orbital parameters on extreme precipitation are rather weak compared to those of the modes of internal variability and of the regional surface temperatures. Still, some regions in central Africa, southern Asia, and the tropical Atlantic ocean show statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and orbital forcing, implying that in these regions, extreme precipitation has increased linearly during the 3351-year pre-industrial period. Tropical volcanic eruptions affect extreme precipitation more clearly in the short term up to a few years, altering both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. However, more apparent changes are found in the frequency than the intensity of extreme precipitation. After eruptions, the return periods of extreme precipitation increase over the extratropical regions and the tropical Pacific, while a decrease is found in other regions. The post-eruption changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation are associated with ENSO, which itself is influenced by tropical eruptions. Overall, the results show that climate simulations are useful to complement the information on pre-industrial extreme precipitation, as they elucidate statistical characteristics and long-term connections of extreme events with natural variability.