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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK and Boston, USA : Blackwell Publishers Ltd
    Expert systems 19 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-0394
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Computer Science
    Notes: Increasing evidence over the past decade indicates that financial markets exhibit nonlinear dynamics in the form of chaotic behavior. Traditionally, the prediction of stock markets has relied on statistical methods including multivariate statistical methods, autoregressive integrated moving average models and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. In recent years, neural networks and other knowledge techniques have been applied extensively to the task of predicting financial variables.This paper examines the relationship between chaotic models and learning techniques. In particular, chaotic analysis indicates the upper limits of predictability for a time series. The learning techniques involve neural networks and case–based reasoning. The chaotic models take the form of R/S analysis to measure persistence in a time series, the correlation dimension to encapsulate system complexity, and Lyapunov exponents to indicate predictive horizons. The concepts are illustrated in the context of a major emerging market, namely the Polish stock market.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing
    Expert systems 21 (2004), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-0394
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Computer Science
    Notes: Abstract: The deluge of data available to managers underscores the need to develop intelligent systems to generate new knowledge. Such tools are available in the form of learning systems from artificial intelligence. This paper explores how the novel tools can support decision-making in the ubiquitous managerial task of forecasting.For concreteness, the methodology is examined in the context of predicting a financial index whose chaotic properties render the time series difficult to predict. The study investigates the circumstances under which enough new knowledge is extracted from temporal data to overturn the efficient markets hypothesis.The efficient markets hypothesis precludes the possibility of anticipating in financial markets. More precisely, the markets are deemed to be so efficient that the best forecast of a price level for the subsequent period is precisely the current price. Certain anomalies to the efficient market premise have been observed, such as calendar effects. Even so, forecasting techniques have been largely unable to outperform the random walk model which corresponds to the behavior of prices under the efficient markets hypothesis.This paper tests the validity of the efficient markets hypothesis by developing knowledge-based tools to forecast a market index. The predictions are examined across several horizons: single-period forecasts as well as multiple periods. For multiperiod forecasts, the predictive methodology takes two forms: a single jump from the current period to the end of the forecast horizon, and a multistage web of forecasts which progresses systematically from one period to the next.These models are first evaluated using neural networks and case-based reasoning, and are then compared against a random walk model. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting a composite for the Korean stock market.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent manufacturing 2 (1991), S. 17-25 
    ISSN: 1572-8145
    Keywords: Concurrent design ; simultaneous engineering ; expert system
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses the architecture and implementation issues for a knowledge system to assist in product design. The goals of the concurrent Design Advisor (CODA) are to enhance the quality of designs by 25 percent and the efficiency by a factor of 10. The improvement springs from the integration of diverse knowledge bases, ranging from customer needs to product evaluation, and from process configuration to production control. One source of efficiency is the automation of many routine tasks, thereby increasing user productivity. Another source is the increase in the quality of initial designs, which obviates the need for numerous iterations in the design process due to poor manufacturability. CODA is based on the general architecture of the Creativity Support System, an expert system for assisting users in specific domains requiring creative solutions. The bilevel structure of the system consists of a domain-independent module containing general tools and techniques for creative problem-solving, and a domain-dependent module incorporating knowledge specific to particular fields of application. The utility of this approach is illustrated in the realm of concurrent product design by demonstrating a CODA within the general architecture of the system.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of intelligent manufacturing 1 (1990), S. 59-76 
    ISSN: 1572-8145
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: Abstract Future increase in industrial productivity will stem, in large measure, from the effective utilization of automation technologies in the manufacturing environment. Although many tools exist for process automation in both hardware capabilities and software techniques, they have been applied to date only in restricted environments and for limited applications. To fully reap the benefits of the technological state of the art, isolated capabilities must be integrated into a synergistic whole. This paper demonstrates how a logic-based approach can provide both a practical and a theoretical foundation for such integration. From a theoretical standpoint, a coherent framework build on logic-based techniques is indicated. A promising structure within this arena is modal logic, which serves to integrate other methodologies such as temporal logic. Further, the power of this approach as a formalizing tool is shown. In particular, the formalization can provide a rigorous structure for investigating the theoretical limits as well as efficiency issues. From a practical standpoint, the methods of logic can serve as a substrate for integrating diverse representation techniques. More specifically, the integration of qualitative and quantitative knowledge is studied. Previous work in qualitative physics as well as concepts such as the superinterval, which effectively combines point-based and interval-based temporal reasoning techniques, can be utilized. The major advantage of an integrated approach is the feasibility of developing model-based control systems. As a result, various activities such as process planning, error diagnosis, and fault management can proceed through a chain of causal inferences rather than merely stand as a superficial set of decision rules. In this way, the control system can check for internal consistency and even reason about some eventualities which were not necessarily envisioned by the original developers. The utility of this integrated, model-based approach is investigated using case studies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 1991-02-01
    Print ISSN: 0956-5515
    Electronic ISSN: 1572-8145
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Published by Springer
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 1990-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0956-5515
    Electronic ISSN: 1572-8145
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Published by Springer
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  • 7
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