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  • 1
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    Expressing Flood Likelihood: Return Period versus Probability (2017)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-11-15
    Description: The likelihood of floods and other potentially destructive natural phenomena is often expressed as a return period or recurrence interval, such as a 100-yr flood. However, the expression might give users the impression that the event will occur exactly once within the described period, obscuring the intended probabilistic meaning. If so, users may think a flood is less likely when one has just occurred or more likely when it has not, leading to a “flood is due” effect. This hypothesis was tested experimentally in two studies reported here. Participants were given either a return period or a probability expression and asked to rate flood likelihood and concern. Flood recency was also manipulated. The results from both studies support a flood is due effect when the return period expression is used. In the return period condition alone, participants rated floods as more likely and expressed greater concern when no flood had occurred recently. When no likelihood information was conveyed in the control condition, the opposite effect was observed. Participants rated flood likelihood as higher and expressed greater concern when a flood had occurred recently. Participants using the percent chance expression were least affected by flood recency. This adds to the growing body of research suggesting that nonexperts can benefit from probabilistic weather forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    The Impact of Weather Forecast Inconsistency on User Trust (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-11
    Description: For high-impact weather events, forecasts often start days in advance. Forecasters believe that consistency among subsequent forecasts is important to user trust and can be reluctant to make changes when newer, potentially more accurate information becomes available. However, to date, there is little empirical evidence for an effect of inconsistency among weather forecasts on user trust, although the reduction in trust due to inaccuracy is well documented. The experimental studies reported here compared the effects of forecast inconsistency and inaccuracy on user trust. Participants made several school closure decisions based on snow accumulation forecasts for one and two days prior to the target event. Consistency and accuracy were varied systematically. Although inconsistency reduced user trust, the effect of the reduction due to inaccuracy was greater in most cases suggesting that it is inadvisable for forecasters to sacrifice accuracy in favor of consistency.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    The Effects of Consistency Among Simultaneous Forecasts on Weather-Related Decisions (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-28
    Description: People access weather forecasts from multiple sources (mobile apps, newspapers and television) that are not always in agreement for a particular weather event. The experiment reported here investigated the effects of inconsistency among forecasts on user trust, weather-related decisions, and confidence in user decisions. In a computerized task, participants made school closure decisions based on snow forecasts from different sources and answered a series of questions about each forecast. Inconsistency among simultaneous forecasts did not significantly reduce trust, although inaccuracy did. Moreover, inconsistency may convey useful information to decisions makers. Not only do participants appear to incorporate the information provided by all forecasts into their own estimates of the outcome, but our results also suggest that inconsistency gives rise to the impression of greater uncertainty leading to more cautious decisions. The implications for decisions in a variety of domains are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey (2016)
    BioMed Central
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    Publication Date: 2016-12-01
    Electronic ISSN: 1472-6947
    Topics: Computer Science , Medicine
    Published by BioMed Central
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  • 5
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    The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts (2007)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2007-08-01
    Description: The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on historical information in a controlled laboratory setting. They also decided whether it was appropriate to post an advisory for winds greater than 20 kt (10.29 m s−1) during the same time intervals and in the same geographic locations. On half of the forecasts each participant also read a color-coded chart showing the probability of winds greater than 20 kt. Participants had a general tendency to post too many advisories in the low probability situations (0%–10%) and too few advisories in very high probability situations (90%–100%). However, the probability product attenuated these biases. When participants used the probability product, they posted fewer advisories when the probability of high winds was low and they posted more advisories when the probability of high winds was high. The difference was due to the probability product alone because the within-subjects design and counterbalancing of forecast dates ruled out alternative explanations. The data suggest that the probability product improved threshold forecast decisions.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Boater Safety: Communicating Weather Forecast Information to High-Stakes End Users (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-01
    Description: Recreational boaters in the Pacific Northwest understand that there is uncertainty inherent in deterministic forecasts as well as some of the factors that increase uncertainty. This was determined in an online survey of 166 boaters in the Puget Sound area. Understanding was probed using questions that asked respondents what they expected to observe when given a deterministic forecast with a specified lead time, for a particular weather parameter, during a particular time of year. It was also probed by asking respondents to estimate the number of observations, out of 100 or out of 10, that they expected to fall within specified ranges around the deterministic forecast. Almost all respondents anticipated some uncertainty in the deterministic forecast as well as specific biases, most of which were born out by an analysis of local National Weather Service verification data. Interestingly, uncertainty and biases were anticipated for categorical forecasts indicating a range of values as well, suggesting that specifying numeric uncertainty would improve understanding. Furthermore, respondents’ answers suggested that they expected a high rate of false alarms among warning and advisory forecasts. Nonetheless, boaters indicated that they would take precautionary action in response to such warnings, in proportions related to the size of boat they were operating. This suggests that uncertainty forecasts would be useful to these experienced forecast consumers, allowing them to adapt the forecast to their specific boating situation with greater confidence.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    The Benefits and Challenges of Predictive Interval Forecasts and Verification Graphics for End Users (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-04-01
    Description: Two behavioral experiments tested the use of predictive interval forecasts and verification graphics by nonexpert end users. Most participants were able to use a simple key to understand a predictive interval graphic, showing a bracket to indicate the upper and lower boundary values of the 80% predictive interval for temperature. In the context of a freeze warning task, the predictive interval forecast narrowed user expectations and alerted participants to the possibility of colder temperatures. As a result, participants using predictive intervals took precautionary action more often than did a control group using deterministic forecasts. Moreover, participants easily understood both deterministic and predictive interval verification graphics, based on simple keys, employing them to correctly identify better performing forecast periods. Importantly, participants with the predictive interval were more likely than those with the deterministic forecast to say they would use that forecast type in the future, demonstrating increased trust. Verification graphics also increased trust in both predictive interval and deterministic forecasts when the effects were isolated from familiarity in the second study. These results suggest that forecasts that include an uncertainty estimate might maintain user trust even when the single-value forecast fails to verify, an effect that may be enhanced by explicit verification data.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2012-10-01
    Description: What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the manager of a road maintenance company and used forecast information to decide whether to take precautionary action to prevent icy conditions on a town’s roads. Participants with forecasts expressed as odds ratios were more likely to take appropriate precautionary action on a single target trial with an extreme low temperature forecast than participants using deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. However, participants using probabilistic forecasts performed better on trials involving weather within the normal range than participants with only deterministic forecast information. These results may provide insight into how best to communicate extreme weather risk. This paper offers clear evidence that people given relative risk information are more inclined to take precautionary action when threatened with an extreme weather event with a low probability than people given only single-value or probabilistic forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    The Effects of Recency and Numerical Uncertainty Estimates on Overcautiousness (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-01
    Description: The four experiments reported here tested the impact of recent negative events on decision-making. Participants were given a virtual budget to spend on crops of varying costs and payoffs that, in some cases, depended on drought conditions. Participants made 46 decisions based on either deterministic or probabilistic seasonal climate predictions. Participants experienced a sequence of droughts either immediately prior to the target trials (recent condition) or early in the sequence (distant condition). In experiment 1, participants made overly cautious crop choices when droughts were experienced recently. Subsequent experiments probed the cognitive mechanisms involved. The effect of recency on overcautiousness was reduced by a midexperiment message, although it did not matter whether the message described a changed or consistent venue and time period. This suggests that overcautiousness was not caused by deducing a climatic trend in the particular area. Instead, we argue that availability—events that are easier to recall are judged to be more likely—was the major cause for increased cautiousness following recent droughts. Importantly, probabilistic predictions attenuated the impact of recency, inspired greater trust, and allowed participants to make better decisions overall than did deterministic predictions. Implications are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Probabilistic Interval Forecasts: An Individual Differences Approach to Understanding Forecast Communication (2017)
    Hindawi
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Description: Predictive interval forecasts, showing a range of values with specified probability, have the potential to improve decisions compared to point estimates. The research reported here demonstrates that this advantage extends from college undergraduates to a wide user group and does not depend on education. In two experiments, participants made decisions based on predictive intervals or point estimates and answered questions about them. In Experiment 1, they also completed numeracy and working memory span tests. Those using predictive intervals were better able to identify situations requiring precautionary action. Nonetheless, two errors were noted: (1) misinterpreting predictive intervals as diurnal fluctuation (deterministic construal errors) and (2) judging the probability of events within and beyond the interval, when asked about them separately, as greater than 100%. These errors were only partially explained by WMS and numeracy. Importantly, omitting visualizations eliminated deterministic construal errors and overestimation of percent chance was not consistently related to decision quality. Thus, there may be important benefits to predictive interval forecasts that are not dependent on a full understanding of the theoretical principles underlying them or an advanced education, making them appropriate for a broad range of users with diverse backgrounds, weather concerns, and risk tolerances.
    Print ISSN: 1687-9309
    Electronic ISSN: 1687-9317
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Hindawi
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