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  • 1
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    Agent Based Modeling of Air Carrier Behavior for Evaluation of Technology Equipage and Adoption (2014)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: As part of ongoing research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework to assist policymakers in identifying impacts on the U.S. air transportation system (ATS) of potential policies and technology related to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). This framework, called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS), integrates multiple models into a single process flow to best simulate responses by U.S. commercial airlines and other ATS stakeholders to NextGen-related policies, and in turn, how those responses impact the ATS. Development of this framework required NASA and LMI to create an agent-based model of airline and passenger behavior. This Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS) models airline decisions about tactical airfare and schedule adjustments, and strategic decisions related to fleet assignments, market prices, and equipage. AIRLINE-EVOS models its own heterogeneous population of passenger agents that interact with airlines; this interaction allows the model to simulate the cycle of action-reaction as airlines compete with each other and engage passengers. We validated a baseline configuration of AIRLINE-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments. These experiments demonstrated AIRLINE-EVOS's capabilities in responding to an input price shock in fuel prices, and to equipage challenges in a series of analyses based on potential incentive policies for best equipped best served, optimal-wind routing, and traffic management initiative exemption concepts..
    Keywords: Air Transportation and Safety
    Type: AIAA Paper 2014-3147 , NF1676L-18626 , AVIATION 2014 (The Aviation and Aeronautics Forum and Exposition); Jun 16, 2014 - Jun 20, 2014; Atlanta, GA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 2
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    An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System (2015)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.
    Keywords: Law, Political Science and Space Policy; Air Transportation and Safety
    Type: NF1676L-20924 , AIAA Aviation 2015; Jun 22, 2015 - Jun 26, 2015; Dallas, TX; United States
    Format: application/pdf
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 3
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    Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price (2015)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.
    Keywords: Economics and Cost Analysis
    Type: NF1676L-20926 , AIAA Aviation 2015; Jun 22, 2015 - Jun 26, 2015; Dallas, TX; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
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