ALBERT

Description: Abstract1. Attempts to understand the demography of natural populations from time-series can be hampered by the fact that changes due to births and deaths may be confounded with those due to movement in and out of the sampling area. 2. We illustrate the problem using a stage-structured time-series of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus sampled in the vicinity of a fixed location but where the demography is shown to be inconsistent with the assumption of a closed population. 3. By combining a realistic simulation of the hydrodynamic environment with a model of phenology we infer the time and location at which the stages observed in each sample were recruited as eggs. This yields a spatial and temporal map of the recruitment history required to produce the observed densities. 4. Using an empirical relationship between C. finmarchicus egg production and the abundance of phytoplanktonic food, the spatio-temporal patterns in chlorophyll a can be inferred. The distributions during the spring bloom are spatially heterogeneous, and we estimate that the phytoplankton patches are of the order of 30 km across. This result is robust to substantial variations in the assumed stage-dependent mortalities. 5. We conclude that information on advective transport can be used to make testable predictions about the scale of spatial heterogeneities. These, in turn, imply the appropriate spatial scale over which time-series might be replicated in order to obtain more information about unknown processes such as mortality.

Description: Here we present a new, pan-Atlantic compilation and analysis of data on Calanus finmarchicus abundance, demography, dormancy, egg production and mortality in relation to basin-scale patterns of temperature, phytoplankton biomass, circulation and other environmental characteristics in the context of understanding factors determining the distribution and abundance of C. finmarchicus across its North Atlantic habitat. A number of themes emerge: (1) the south-to-north transport of plankton in the northeast Atlantic contrasts with north-to-south transport in the western North Atlantic, which has implications for understanding population responses of C. finmarchicus to climate forcing, (2) recruitment to the youngest copepodite stages occurs during or just after the phytoplankton bloom in the east whereas it occurs after the bloom at many western sites, with up to 3.5 months difference in recruitment timing, (3) the deep basin and gyre of the southern Norwegian Sea is the centre of production and overwintering of C. finmarchicus, upon which the surrounding waters depend, whereas, in the Labrador/Irminger Seas production mainly occurs along the margins, such that the deep basins serve as collection areas and refugia for the overwintering populations, rather than as centres of production, (4) the western North Atlantic marginal seas have an important role in sustaining high C. finmarchicus abundance on the nearby coastal shelves, (5) differences in mean temperature and chlorophyll concentration between the western and eastern North Atlantic are reflected in regional differences in female body size and egg production, (6) regional differences in functional responses of egg production rate may reflect genetic differences between western and eastern populations, (7) dormancy duration is generally shorter in the deep waters adjacent to the lower latitude western North Atlantic shelves than in the east, (8) there are differences in stage-specific daily mortality rates between eastern and western shelves and basins, but the survival trajectories for cohort development from CI to CV are similar, and (9) early life stage survival is much lower in regions where C. finmarchicus is found with its congeners, C. glacialis and/or C. hyperboreus. This compilation and analysis provides new knowledge for evaluation and parameterisation of population models of C. finmarchicus and their responses to climate change in the North Atlantic. The strengths and weaknesses of modeling approaches, including a statistical approach based on ecological niche theory and a dynamical approach based on knowledge of spatial population dynamics and life history, are discussed, as well as needs for further research.

Description: SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework designed to simulate microbial dynamics and biogeochemical cycling during initial ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The rationale for model development arises from decades of empirical observations in glacier forefields, and enables a quantitative and process focussed approach. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER, test its performance in two case study forefields: the Damma Glacier (Switzerland) and the Athabasca Glacier (Canada) and analyse sensitivity to identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of labile substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter, and nitrogen fixation, are important in sustaining this productivity. The development and application of SHIMMER also highlights aspects of these systems that require further empirical research: quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, exploring seasonality and microbial growth and cell death. This will lead to increased understanding of how glacier forefields contribute to global biogeochemical cycling and climate under future ice retreat.