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  • 1
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    Assessment of regional climate model simulation estimates over the northeast United States (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-12
    Description: Given the coarse scales of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models, regional climate models (RCMs) are increasingly relied upon for studies at scales appropriate for many impacts studies. We use outputs from an ensemble of RCMs participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to investigate potential changes in seasonal air temperature and precipitation between present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods across the northeast United States. The models show a consistent modest cold bias each season and are wetter than observations in winter, spring, and summer. Agreement in spatial variability and pattern correlation is good for air temperature and marginal for precipitation. Two methods were used to evaluate robustness of the mid 21st century change projections; one which estimates model reliability to generate multimodel means and assess uncertainty and a second which depicts multimodel projections by separating lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement. For air temperature we find changes of 2–3°C are outside the level of internal natural variability and significant at all northeast grid cells. Signals of precipitation increases in winter are significant region wide. Regionally averaged precipitation changes for spring, summer, and autumn are within the level of natural variability. This study raises confidence in mid 21st century temperature projections across the northeast United States and illustrates the value in comprehensive assessments of regional climate model projections over time and space scales where natural variability may obscure signals of anthropogenically forced changes.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
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    Projection of changes in the frequency of heavy rain events over Hawaii based on leading Pacific climate modes (2011)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-02-23
    Description: This study investigates the frequency of heavy rainfall events in Hawaii during the wet season (October-April) 1958–2005 and their conditional dependence on the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Heavy rain events are defined by the 95% quantile in the rainfall distribution of the wet seasons. Twelve stations with daily reports of rainfall amounts were used to count the number of heavy rain days during wet seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) indicated that the PNA index (PNAI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) can explain a significant amount of the interannual to interdecadal variability for 9 out of 12 stations. Cross validation showed that PNAI and SOI together explain about 18–44% of the variability in the number of heavy rain events. Furthermore, the MLR model reproduces the trend toward fewer heavy rain events in the years after the Pacific climate shift in the mid-1970s. The MLR model was applied to the projected PNAI and SOI indices that were obtained from six IPCC AR4 climate models. The current suite of AR4 simulations based on the A1B and A2 emissions scenarios projects small and equivocal changes in the mean state of the SOI and PNAI during the 21st century. The covariance between PNAI and SOI in these simulations appears to be stable. To the extent that variations in the frequency and magnitude of ENSO and the PNA mode are responsible for modulating extreme rainfall occurrence in Hawaii, our results indicate small changes in the projected number of heavy rainfall days with large uncertainties resulting from disparities among the climate models.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
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    Climate change. Climate in Medieval time (2003)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2003-10-18
    Description: Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bradley, Raymond S -- Hughes, Malcolm K -- Diaz, Henry F -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2003 Oct 17;302(5644):404-5.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. rbradley@geo.umass.edu〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14563996" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 4
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    Climate change. Threats to water supplies in the tropical Andes (2006)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2006-06-24
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bradley, Raymond S -- Vuille, Mathias -- Diaz, Henry F -- Vergara, Walter -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2006 Jun 23;312(5781):1755-6.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. rbradley@geo.umass.edu〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16794068" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 5
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    Using satellite infrared data in studies of variabilities of the Western pacific warm pool (1993)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1993-10-15
    Description: 〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bates, J J -- Diaz, H F -- Reynolds, R W -- Bernstein, R L -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1993 Oct 15;262(5132):440-1.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17789951" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 6
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    Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century (1987)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1987-07-10
    Description: An extensive array of measurements extending back to the mid-19th century was used to investigate large-scale changes in precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land areas. Significant increases in mid-latitude precipitation and concurrent decreases in low-latitude precipitation have occurred over the last 30 to 40 years. Although these large-scale trends are consistent with general circulation model projections of precipitation changes associated with doubled concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, they should be viewed as defining large-scale natural climatic variability. Additional work to refine regional variations and address potential network inhomogeneitics is needed. This study attempts to show secular precipitation fluctuations over hemispheric and continental-scale areas of the Northern Hemisphere.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Bradley, R S -- Diaz, H F -- Eischeid, J K -- Jones, P D -- Kelly, P M -- Goodess, C M -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1987 Jul 10;237(4811):171-5.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17830924" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 7
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    Assessment of regional climate model simulation estimates over the northeast United States (2013)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-01-03
    Description: [1]  Given the coarse scales of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models, regional climate models (RCMs) are increasingly relied upon for studies at scales appropriate for many impacts studies. We use outputs from an ensemble of RCMs participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to investigate potential changes in seasonal air temperature and precipitation between present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods across the northeast United States. The models show a consistent modest cold bias each season and are wetter than observations in winter, spring, and summer. Agreement in spatial variability and pattern correlation is good for air temperature and marginal for precipitation. Two methods were used to evaluate robustness of the mid 21st century change projections; one which estimates model reliability to generate multimodel means and assess uncertainty and a second which depicts multimodel projections by separating lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement. For air temperature we find changes of 2–3°C are outside the level of internal natural variability and significant at all northeast grid cells. Signals of precipitation increases in winter are significant region wide. Regionally averaged precipitation changes for spring, summer, and autumn are within the level of natural variability. This study raises confidence in mid 21st century temperature projections across the northeast United States and illustrates the value in comprehensive assessments of regional climate model projections over time and space scales where natural variability may obscure signals of anthropogenically forced changes.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    ENSO signal in continental temperature and precipitation records (1987)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 327 (1987), S. 497-501 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A commonly used index of the Southern Oscillation is the normalized sea-level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin15'17. With this index (SOI), large negative values correspond to warm events and large positive values to cold events. A five-month running mean of the index is shown in Fig. ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/327497a0
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    CLIMATIC CHANGE AT HIGH ELEVATION SITES: AN OVERVIEW (1997)
    Springer
    Climatic change 36 (1997), S. 233-251 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper provides an overview of climatic changes that have been observed during the past century at certain high-elevation sites, and changes in a more distant past documented by a variety of climate-sensitive environmental indicators, such as tree-rings and alpine glaciers, that serve as a measure of the natural variability of climate in mountains over longer time scales. Detailed studies such as those found in this special issue of Climatic Change , as well as those noted in this review, for the mountain regions of the world, advance our understanding in a variety of ways. They are not only helpful to characterize present and past climatological features in the mountainous zones, but they also provide useful information to the climate modeling community. Because of the expected refinements in the physical parameterizations of climate models in coming years, and the probable increase in the spatial resolution of GCMs, the use of appropriate data from high elevation sites will become of increasing importance for model initialization, verification, and intercomparison purposes. The necessity of accurate projections of climate change is paramount to assessing the likely impacts of climate change on mountain biodiversity, hydrology and cryosphere, and on the numerous economic activities which take place in these regions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005380714349
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Precipitation monitoring for climate change detection (1996)
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 60 (1996), S. 179-190 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary An important measure of the reliability of simulated precipitation fields by general circulation models will be its ability to reproduce the more important features of observed precipitation, including its spatial distribution, annual cycle characteristics, and the more salient features of its interannual variability. Some important characteristics of the large-scale variability of observed precipitation fields during the past few decades over land, and the last 15 years over ocean areas are described in this study. One such feature is an enhancement of the semiannual cycle in the tropics. A second is the strong influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in modulating the rainfall patterns globally. A third salient feature is the decline of precipitation over the tropics since the mid-1970s, which in turn, appears to be connected to the prevalence of warm ENSO conditions in the Pacific during that time.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01029794
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