ALBERT

Note: Dissertation, Universität Potsdam, 2021 , Contents List of Figures List of Tables I Preamble 1 Introduction 1.1.1 The Journey from Weather to Climate 1.1.2 The Climate Background 1.1.3 Pollen as Quantitative Indicators of Past Changes 1.2 Overview and Aims of Manuscripts 1.2.1 List of Manuscripts 1.2.2 Short Summaries of the Manuscripts 1.3 Author Contributions to the Manuscripts II Manuscripts 2 Comparing estimation of techniques for temporal Scaling 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Data and Methods 2.2.1 Scaling estimation methods 2.2.2 Evaluation of the estimators 2.2.3 Data 2.3 Results 2.3.1 Effect of Regular and Irregular Sampling 2.3.2 Effect of Time series length 2.3.3 Application to database 2.4 Discussion 2.5 Conclusions 3 Land temperature variability driven by oceans at millennial timescales 4 Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Method 4.2.1 Model simulations 4.2.2 The Last Glacial Maximum experiment 4.2.3 The mid Holocene experiment (midHolocene) 4.2.4 The warming experiments 1pctCO2 and abrupt4xCO2 4.2.5 Preprocessing of model simulations 4.2.6 Comparisons across the ensemble 4.2.7 Diagnosing variability changes 4.2.8 Changes in precipitation extremes 4.2.9 Timescale-dependence of the variability changes 4.3 Results 4.3.1 Hydrological sensitivity across the ensemble 4.3.2 Changes in local interannual variability 4.3.3 Changes in modes of variability 4.3.4 Circulation patterns underlying extratropical precipitation extremes 4.3.5 Changes in. the spectrum of variability 4.4 Discussion 4.4.1 Changes in climate variability with global mean temperature 4.4.2 Temperature vs. precipitation scaling 4.4.3 Comparison to climate reconstructions and observations 4.4.4 Limitations 4.5 Conclusions 5 Holocene vegetation variability in the Northern Hemisphere 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Data and Methods 5.2.1 Pollen Database 5.2.2 Principal Component Analysis 5.2.3 Timescale-dependent Estimates of Variability 5.2.4 Biome Classification 5.3 Results 5.3.1 General Vegetation Variability Analysis 5.3.2 Comparison of Forested and Open Land Vegetations 5.3.3 Comparison of Broadleaf and Needleleaf Fore ts 5.3.4 Comparison of Temperate and Boreal Coniferous Forests 5.3.5 Comparison of Evergreen and Deciduous Boreal Forests 5.4 Discussion 5.5 Conclusion III Postamble 6 General discussion and conclusion 6.1 Overview 6.2 Timescale-Dependent Estimates of Variability 6.3 Climate and Vegetation Variabilities in the Holocene 6.4 Implications for the 21th Century 6.5 Outlook IV Appendix A Supplementary figures from "Comparing estimation techniques for temporal scaling in paleo-climate timeseries" A.1 Block Average Results A.2 First-Order Correction for the Effect of Interpolation A.3 Change in Bias and Standard Deviation B Methods and supplementary information from "Land temperature variability driven by oceans at millennial timescales" B.1 Methods B.1.1 Reconstructions B.1.2 Significance Testing B.1.3 Testing for Anthropogenic Impacts B.1.4 Instrumental Data B.1.5 Model Data B.1.6 Spectral Estimates B.1.7 Variance Ratios B.1.8 Sub-Decadal Variability Binning B.1.9 Correlation B.1.10 Moran's I B.2 Supplementary Information B.2.1 Tree Ring Data Analysis B.2.2 Energy-Balance Equations B.3 Extended Data Figures C Supplementary figures from "Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future" D Supplementary figures from "Characterization of holocene vegetation variability in the Northern Hemisphere" Bibliography