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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.
    Description: The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25°W–107.75°W, 30°N–35.25°N—NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.
    Description: NOAA. Grant Number: NA11OAR4310166, NSF. Grant Number: AGS-1243204
    Description: 2016-02-19
    Keywords: Paleoclimate ; North American monsoon ; Teleconnection
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 9017–9023, doi:10.1002/2014GL062433.
    Description: For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.
    Description: D. G. was supported by a NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship. Both authors also acknowledge the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Program Office for support of this research.
    Description: 2015-06-30
    Keywords: Drought ; Tree rings ; Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-07-07
    Description: The aim of this study was to examine racial differences in long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), stratified by preoperative use of inotropic agents. Black and white patients who required preoperative inotropic support prior to undergoing CABG procedures between 1992 and 2011 were compared. Mortality probabilities were computed using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using a Cox regression model. A total of 15,765 patients underwent CABG, of whom 211 received preoperative inotropic agents within 48 hours of surgery. Long-term mortality differed by race (black versus white) among preoperative inotropic category (inotropes: adjusted HR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.009–2.4; no inotropes: adjusted HR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.08–1.2; Pinteraction 〈 0.0001). Our study identified an independent preoperative risk-factor for long-term mortality among blacks receiving CABG. This outcome provides information that may be useful for surgeons, primary care providers, and their patients.
    Print ISSN: 1661-7827
    Electronic ISSN: 1660-4601
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Medicine
    Published by MDPI Publishing
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-02-23
    Description: Some of the oldest and most important trees used for dendroclimatic reconstructions develop strip-bark morphology, in which only a portion of the stem contains living tissue. Yet the ecophysiological factors initiating strip bark and the potential effect of cambial dieback on annual ring widths and tree-ring estimates of past climate remain poorly understood. Using a combination of field observations and tree-ring data, we investigate the causes and timing of cambial dieback events in Pinus sibirica strip-bark trees from central Mongolia, and compare the radial growth rates and trends of strip-bark and whole-bark trees over the past 515 years. Results indicate that strip bark is more common on the southern aspect of trees and dieback events were most prevalent in the 19 th century, a cold and dry period. Further, strip-bark and whole-bark trees have differing centennial trends, with strip-bark trees exhibiting notably large increases in ring widths at the beginning of the 20 th century. We find a steeper positive trend in the strip-bark chronology relative to the whole-bark chronology when standardizing with age-dependent splines. We hypothesize that localized warming on the southern side of stems due to solar irradiance results in physiological damage and dieback, and leads to increasing tree-ring increment along the living portion of strip-bark trees. Because the impact of cambial dieback on ring widths likely varies depending on species and site, we suggest conducting a comparison of strip-bark and whole-bark ring widths before statistically treating ring-width data for climate reconstructions.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-04-17
    Description: A coupled Sun-to-Earth model is the goal for accurate forecasting of space weather. A key component of such a model is a whole atmosphere model - a general circulation model extending from the ground into the upper atmosphere - since it is now known that the lower atmosphere also drives variability and space weather in the upper atmosphere, in addition to solar variability. This objective motivates the stable extension of The Met Office's Unified Model (UM) into the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT), acting as a first step towards a whole atmosphere model.   At the time of performing this research, radiation and chemistry schemes that are appropriate for use in the MLT had not yet been implemented. Furthermore, attempts to run the model with existing parameterizations and a raised upper boundary led to an unstable model with inaccurate solutions. Here, this instability is examined and narrowed down to the model's radiation scheme - its assumption of Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) is broken in the MLT. We subsequently address this issue by relaxation to a climatological temperature profile in this region. This provides a stable extended UM which can be used as a developmental tool for further examination of the model performance.   The standard vertical resolution used in the UM above 70 km is too coarse (approx. 5 km) to represent waves that are important for MLT circulation. We build on the success of the nudging implementation by testing the model at an improved vertical resolution. Initial attempts to address this problem with a 3 km vertical resolution and a 100 km lid were successful, but on increasing the resolution to 1.5 km the model becomes unstable due to large horizontal and vertical wind velocities. Increasing the vertical damping coefficient, which damps vertical velocities near the upper boundary, allows a successful year long climatology to be produced with these model settings. With the goal of a whole atmosphere model we also experiment with an increased upper boundary height. Increasing the upper model boundary to 120 and 135 km also leads to stable simulations. However, a 3 km resolution must be used and it is necessary to further increase the vertical damping coefficient.   This is highly promising initial work to raise the UM into the MLT, and paves the way for the development of a whole atmosphere model.
    Electronic ISSN: 2115-7251
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by EDP Sciences
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-09-15
    Description: Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrient cycling in savanna ecosystems. Individual fires often increase short-term nitrogen (N) availability to plants, but repeated burning causes ecosystem N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organic matter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorly understood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, we evaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation composition influenced wood stable N isotopes (δ15N) across space and time at one of the longest running prescribed burn experiments in the world (established in 1964). We developed multiple δ15N records across a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across four treatment stands that varied with respect to the temporal onset of burning and burn frequency but were consistent in overstory species representation, soil characteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburned control stand to a high-fire-frequency stand that had burned in 4 of every 5 years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net N mineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands, we hypothesized that wood δ15N trajectories would decline through time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to the fire frequency. We found that wood δ15N records within each stand were remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. A gradual decline in wood δ15N occurred in the mid-20th century in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was no trend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did not systematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, we found limited evidence for variation in wood δ15N that could be attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribed burn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ15N results may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetation composition and abundance due to early- to mid-20th-century fire suppression.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2014-12-01
    Print ISSN: 1528-7483
    Electronic ISSN: 1528-7505
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: Exposure to even low concentrations of heavy metals can be toxic to aquatic organisms, especially during embryonic development. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the toxicity of nickel and cadmium in zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of each metal alone or in combination from 4 h through to 72 h postfertilization. Neither metal altered survival, but individual and combined exposures decreased hatching rate. Whereas cadmium did not affect total body length, trunk area, eye diameter, or eye area, nickel alone and in combination with cadmium decreased each morphological parameter. Yolk sac area, an index of metabolic rate, was not affected by nickel, but was larger in embryos exposed to high cadmium concentrations or nickel and cadmium combined at high concentrations. Nickel decreased spontaneous movement, whereas cadmium alone or nickel and cadmium combined had no effect. Neither metal altered elicited movement, but nickel and cadmium combined decreased elicited movement. Myosin protein expression in skeletal muscle was not altered by cadmium exposure. However, exposure to nickel at low concentrations and combined exposure to nickel and cadmium decreased myosin expression. Overall, nickel was more toxic than cadmium. In conclusion, we observed that combined exposures had a greater effect on movement than gross morphology, and no significant additive or synergistic interactions were present. These results imply that nickel and cadmium are toxic to developing embryos, even at very low exposure concentrations, and that these metals act via different mechanisms.
    Electronic ISSN: 2073-4441
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 10
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