Publication Date:
2018-11-29
Description:
Background: alloHCT is offered with curative intent to patients with malignant as well as some nonmalignant hematologic diseases, and conventionally-computed survival estimates are offered for prognosticating outcomes. However, conventionally-computed survival and mortality risk estimates do not account for patients' elapsed survival time which, among other factors, could affect subsequent mortality. Conditional survival overcomes these limitations by calculating the probability of survival after having already survived a certain period of time - such data are unavailable for alloHCT recipients. We describe conditional survival and cause-specific mortality (disease-related [DRM], non-disease-related [NDRM], and GvHD-related) after alloHCT to provide clinically relevant information for patients who have survived 6 mos, 1, 2, 5, and 10y after alloHCT. Methods: From 1976 to 2013, 4,315 consecutive patients underwent alloHCT for hematologic diseases at a single institution. Vital status and cause of death were determined using the National Death Index Plus and medical records. Results: Diagnoses included acute leukemia (54%), chronic leukemia (17%), lymphoma (11%), myelodysplastic syndrome (10%), severe aplastic anemia (5%), and other hematologic diseases (3%); median age at HCT was 38.5y (0.3-75.4). As of December 31, 2014, 1841 patients were still alive in whom the median follow-up was 8.5y (0.2-36.6). Of 2,474 deaths (57% of cohort) for whom causes of deaths are available, 42% was due to primary disease, 30% to graft versus host disease (GvHD), 12% to infection, 5% to cardiopulmonary diseases, 3% to subsequent malignant neoplasm (SMN), and 8% to other causes. Conventionally-computed probabilities of survival at 5, 10, 15, and 20y after alloHCT were 48%, 43%, 40%, and 34%, respectively. On the other hand, for patients who had survived 6 mo, 1, 2, 5, 10y after alloHCT, 5-y conditional survival rates were 62%, 72%, 80%, 88% and 93%, respectively (Figure A). Overall, the cohort was at a 24-fold (Standardized Mortality Ratio [SMR]=24.1, 95%CI=23.1-25.0) risk of any death, compared to the general population; the risk of death from pulmonary complications was 31-fold, that from SMN was 31-fold, and that from cardiovascular complications was 3.5-fold. SMR and cause-specific conditional mortality rates by primary diagnosis are shown in the Table. Significantly elevated risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients who survived 5 and 10y post alloHCT (SMR=3.7, 2.6, respectively, p
Print ISSN:
0006-4971
Electronic ISSN:
1528-0020
Topics:
Biology
,
Medicine
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