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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Extreme events : observations, modeling and economics (2014)
    Somerset : Wiley
    Associated volumes
    Details Availability
    Call number: 5/M 16.89607
    In: Geophysical monograph
    Description / Table of Contents: Home / Earth, Space & Environmental Sciences / Geology & Geophysics / Geology & Geophysics Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics Mario Chavez (Editor), Michael Ghil (Editor), Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi (Editor) ISBN: 978-1-119-15701-4 438 pages March 2016, Wiley-Blackwell Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling, and Economics (1119157013) cover image Read an Excerpt Description The monograph covers the fundamentals and the consequences of extreme geophysical phenomena like asteroid impacts, climatic change, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flooding, and space weather. This monograph also addresses their associated, local and worldwide socio-economic impacts. The understanding and modeling of these phenomena is critical to the development of timely worldwide strategies for the prediction of natural and anthropogenic extreme events, in order to mitigate their adverse consequences. This monograph is unique in as much as it is dedicated to recent theoretical, numerical and empirical developments that aim to improve: (i) the understanding, modeling and prediction of extreme events in the geosciences, and, (ii) the quantitative evaluation of their economic consequences. The emphasis is on coupled, integrative assessment of the physical phenomena and their socio-economic impacts. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events: Observations, Modeling and Economics will be relevant to and become an important tool for researchers and practitioners in the fields of hazard and risk analysis in general, as well as to those with a special interest in climate change, atmospheric and oceanic sciences, seismo-tectonics, hydrology, and space weather.
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9781119157014
    Series Statement: Geophysical monograph series 214
    Classification:
    Natural Disasters, Disaster Management
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
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    Advances in nonlinear geosciences (2018)
    Cham : Springer
    Details
    Call number: 9783319588957 (e-book)
    Description / Table of Contents: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences is a set of contributions from the participants of “30 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics” held July 3-8, 2016 in Rhodes, Greece as part of the Aegean Conferences, as well as from several other experts in the field who could not attend the meeting. The volume brings together up-to-date research from the atmospheric sciences, hydrology, geology, and other areas of geosciences and presents the new advances made in the last 10 years. Topics include chaos synchronization, topological data analysis, new insights on fractals, multifractals and stochasticity, climate dynamics, extreme events, complexity, and causality, among other topics. 
    Type of Medium: 12
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xix, 707 Seiten) , Diagramme
    ISBN: 9783319588957 , 978-3-319-58895-7
    URL: Ebook (access only within the AWI network)
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7
    Language: English
    Note: Contents Pullback Attractor Crisis in a Delay Differential ENSO Model / Mickaël D. Chekroun, Michael Ghil, and J. David Neelin Shear-Wave Splitting Indicates Non-Linear Dynamic Deformation in the Crust and Upper Mantle / Stuart Crampin, Gulten Polat, Yuan Gao, David B. Taylor, and Nurcan Meral Ozel Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Processes: A Review of Recent Physically Based Approaches / Jonathan Demaeyer and Stéphane Vannitsem Large-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Under the Lens of Ordinal Time-Series Analysis and Information Theory Measures / J.I. Deza, G. Tirabassi, M. Barreiro, and C. Masoller Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process / Gregory S. Duane, Wim Wiegerinck, Frank Selten, Mao-Lin Shen, and Noel Keenlyside Are We Measuring the Right Things for Climate? / Christopher Essex and Bjarne Andresen What Have Complex Network Approaches Learned Us About El Niño? / Qing Yi Feng and Henk A. Dijkstra Late Quaternary Climate Response at 100 kyr: A Noise-Induced Cycle Suppression Mechanism / Ivan L’Heureux Role of Nonlinear Eddy Forcing in the Dynamics of Multiple Zonal Jets / Igor Kamenkovich and Pavel Berloff Data-Adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Stochastic Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice / Dmitri Kondrashov, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Xiaojun Yuan, and Michael Ghil Cautionary Remarks on the Auto-Correlation Analysis of Self-Similar Time Series / Sung Yong Kim Emergence of Coherent Clusters in the Ocean / A.D. Kirwan Jr., H.S. Huntley, and H. Chang The Rise and Fall of Thermodynamic Complexity and the Arrow of Time / A. D. Kirwan Jr. and William Seitz From Fractals to Stochastics: Seeking Theoretical Consistency in Analysis of Geophysical Data / Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Federico Lombardo, and Spencer Stevens Role of Nonlinear Dynamics in Accelerated Warming of Great Lakes / Sergey Kravtsov, Noriyuki Sugiyama, and Paul Roebber The Prediction of Nonlinear Polar Motion Based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) / Ramazan Alper Kuçak, Ra¸sit Ulu˘g, and Orhan Akyılmaz Harnessing Butterflies: Theory and Practice of the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) / S. Lovejoy, L. Del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert Regime Change Detection in Irregularly Sampled Time Series / Norbert Marwan, Deniz Eroglu, Ibrahim Ozken, Thomas Stemler, Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll, and Jürgen Kurths Topological Data Analysis: Developments and Applications / Francis C. Motta Nonlinear Dynamical Approach to Atmospheric Predictability / C. Nicolis Linked by Dynamics: Wavelet-Based Mutual Information Rate as a Connectivity Measure and Scale-Specific Networks / Milan Paluš Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics: Overview of Theory and Applications in Seismogenesis, Climate, and Space Plasma / G.P. Pavlos, L.P. Karakatsanis, A.C. Iliopoulos, E.G. Pavlos, and A.A. Tsonis Spatial Patterns of Peak Flow Quantiles Based on Power-Law Scaling in the Mississippi River Basin / Gabriel Perez, Ricardo Mantilla, and Witold F. Krajewski Studying the Complexity of Rainfall Within California Via a Fractal Geometric Method / Carlos E. Puente, Mahesh L. Maskey, and Bellie Sivakumar Pandora Box of Multifractals: Barely Open? / Daniel Schertzer and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia Complex Networks and Hydrologic Applications / Bellie Sivakumar, Carlos E. Puente, and Mahesh L. Maskey Convergent Cross Mapping: Theory and an Example / Anastasios A. Tsonis, Ethan R. Deyle, Hao Ye, and George Sugihara Randomnicity: Randomness as a Property of the Universe / Anastasios A. Tsonis Insights in Climate Dynamics from Climate Networks / Anastasios A. Tsonis On the Range of Frequencies of Intrinsic Climate Oscillations / Anastasios A. Tsonis and Michael D. Madsen The Prediction of Nonstationary Climate Series by Incorporating External Forces / Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis The Impact of Nonlinearity on the Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction / Feifan Zhou and He Zhang Index
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  • 3
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Topics in geophysical fluid dynamics : atmospheric dynamics, dynamo theory, and climate dynamics (1987)
    Berlin [u.a.] : Springer
    Associated volumes
    Details Availability
    Call number: AWI A13-01-0151
    In: Applied mathematical sciences
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: XII, 485 S.
    ISBN: 0387964754
    Series Statement: Applied mathematical sciences 60
    Branch Library: AWI Library
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Extreme weather events (1992)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 358 (1992), S. 547-547 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] SIR - The seasonally recurring oceanic El Nino phenomenon is associated with extreme weather conditions1. Positive phases of the tropical sea-surface temperature oscillation have been con-nected with unusually rainy weather over the southwestern United States, while the negative phases, usually ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/358547a0
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 255-278 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after post-glacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25° S–55° N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35° S–45° N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123° E–169° W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30° S, 0°, and 30° N–70° N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50° S–50° N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35° N and 5° S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10° N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45° N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40° N–70° N and 10° N–50° N, respectively.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050075
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 11 (1995), S. 255-278 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after postglacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25°S–55°N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35°S–45°N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123°E–169°W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30°S, 0°, and 30°N–70°N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50°S–50°N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35°N and 5°S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10°N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45°N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40°N–70°N and 10°N–50°N, respectively.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00211679
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in the equatorial Pacific (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1995), S. 101-112 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Evaluation of competing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) theories requires one to identify separate spectral peaks in equatorial wind and sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. To sharpen this identification, we examine the seasonal-to-interannual variability of these fields by the data-adaptive method of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA). M-SSA is applied to the equatorial band (4° N-4° S), using 1950–1990 data from the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set. Two major interannual oscillations are found in the equatorial SST and surface zonal wind fields, U. The main peak is centered at about 52-months; we refer to it as the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode. Quasi-biennial (QB) variability is split between two modes, with periods near 28 months and 24 months. A faster, 15-month oscillation has smaller amplitude. The QQ mode dominates the variance and has the most distinct spectral peak. In time-longitude reconstructions of this mode, the SST has the form of a standing oscillation in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the U-field is dominated by a standing oscillation pattern in the western Pacific and exhibits also slight eastward propagation in the central and western Pacific. The locations of maximum anomalies in both QB modes are similar to those of the QQ mode. Slight westward migration in SST, across the eastern and central, and eastward propagation of U, across the western and central Pacific, are found. The significant wind anomaly covers a smaller region than for the QQ. The QQ and QB modes together represent the ENSO variability well and interfere constructively during major events. The sharper definition of the QQ spectral peak and its dominance are consistent with the "devil's staircase" interaction mechanism between the annual cycle and ENSO.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050097
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in the equatorial Pacific (1995)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1995), S. 101-112 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Evaluation of competing El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) theories requires one to identify separate spectral peaks in equatorial wind and sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. To sharpen this identification, we examine the seasonal-to-interannual variability of these fields by the data-adaptive method of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA). M-SSA is applied to the equatorial band (4°N-4°S), using 1950–1990 data from the Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set. Two major interannual oscillations are found in the equatorial SST and surface zonal wind fields, U. The main peak is centered at about 52-months; we refer to it as the quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode. Quasi-biennial (QB) variability is split between two modes, with periods near 28 months and 24 months. A faster, 15-month oscillation has smaller amplitude. The QQ mode dominates the variance and has the most distinct spectral peak. In time-longitude reconstructions of this mode, the SST has the form of a standing oscillation in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while the U-field is dominated by a standing oscillation pattern in the western Pacific and exhibits also slight eastward propagation in the central and western Pacific. The locations of maximum anomalies in both QB modes are similar to those of the QQ mode. Slight westward migration in SST, across the eastern and central, and eastward propagation of U, across the western and central Pacific, are found. The significant wind anomaly covers a smaller region than for the QQ. The QQ and QB modes together represent the ENSO variability well and interfere constructively during major events. The sharper definition of the QQ spectral peak and its dominance are consistent with the “devil's staircase” interaction mechanism between the annual cycle and ENSO.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00223723
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures, 1910-87 (1995)
    Springer
    Climatic change 31 (1995), S. 35-66 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Monthly mean surface-air temperatures at 870 sites in the contiguous United States were analyzed for interannual and interdecadal variability over the time interval 1910-87. The temperatures were analyzed spatially by empirical-orthogonal-function analysis and temporally by singularspectrum analysis (SSA). The dominant modes of spatio-temporal variability are trends and nonperiodic variations with time scales longer than 15 years, decadal-scale oscillations with periods of roughly 7 and 10 years, and interannual oscillations of 2.2 and 3.3 years. Together, these modes contribute about 18% of the slower-than-annual United States temperature variance. Two leading components roughly capture the mean hemispheric temperature trend and represent a long-term warming, largest in the southwest, accompanied by cooling of the domain's southeastern quadrant. The extremes of the 2.2-year interannual oscillation characterize temperature differences between the Northeastern and Southwestern States, whereas the 3.3-year cycle is present mostly in the Western States. The 7- to 10-year oscillations are much less regular and persistent than the interannual oscillations and characterize temperature differences between the western and interior sectors of the United States. These continental- or regional-scale temperature variations may be related to climatic variations with similar periodicities, either global or centered in other regions; such variations include quasi-biennial oscillations over the tropical Pacific or North Atlantic and quasi-triennial oscillations of North Pacific sea-surface temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01092980
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  • 10
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    Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles (2018)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-11-01
    Description: The last glacial interval experienced abrupt climatic changes called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. These events manifest themselves as rapid increases followed by slow decreases of oxygen isotope ratios in Greenland ice core records. Despite promising advances, a comprehensive theory of the DO cycles, with their repeated ups and downs of isotope ratios, is still lacking. Here, based on earlier hypotheses, we introduce a dynamical model that explains the DO variability by rapid retreat and slow regrowth of thick ice shelves and thin sea ice in conjunction with changing subsurface water temperatures due to insulation by the ice cover. Our model successfully reproduces observed features of the records, such as the sawtooth shape of the DO cycles, waiting times between DO events across the last glacial, and the shifted antiphase relationship between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. Our results show that these features can be obtained via internal feedbacks alone. Warming subsurface waters could have also contributed to the triggering of Heinrich events. Our model thus offers a unified framework for explaining major features of multimillennial climate variability during glacial intervals.
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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