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  • 1
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    Sources of variation in stomach contents of predators of Atlantic herring in the Northwest Atlantic during 1973–2014 (2018)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-16
    Description: Spatial and temporal variation in stomach-contents data is often unquantified or combined in such a way (e.g. averaged among years) that true signal in diets may be lost. Using a delta approach, this paper fits generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to the amount of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) identified in predator stomachs using only data from stomachs in which herring occurred, and to the probability that a stomach contained herring. Both the amount of herring in stomachs and the probability of a stomach containing herring varied seasonally, spatially, and among years. Of the random effects in each GAMM, the effect of predator species had the largest variance. An index of herring abundance derived from the stomach-contents data was generally consistent with recent herring stock assessments. The temporal and spatial variation in the stomach-contents data suggested that the effect of averaging or combining stomach-contents data among years, seasons, or areas may lead to falsely precise or biased estimates from multispecies assessments or in estimates of consumption, and may restrain the relevance of static foodweb models.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 2
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    Simulation testing methods for estimating misreported catch in a state-space stock assessment model (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-03-12
    Description: State-space stock assessment models have become increasingly common in recent years due to their ability to estimate unobserved variables and explicitly model multiple sources of random error. Therefore, they may be able to better estimate unobserved processes such as misreported fishery catch. We examined whether a state-space assessment model was able to estimate misreported catch in a simulated fishery. We tested three formulations of the estimation model, which exhibit increasing complexity: (i) assuming no misreporting, (ii) assuming misreporting is constant over time, and (iii) assuming misreporting follows a random walk. We tested these three estimation models against simulations using each of the three assumptions and an additional fourth assumption of uniform random misreporting over time. Overall, the worst estimation errors occurred when misreporting was ignored while it was in fact occurring, while there was a relatively small cost for estimating misreporting when it was not occurring. Estimates of population scale and fishing mortality rate were particularly sensitive to misreporting assumptions. Furthermore, in the uniform random scenario, the relatively simple model that assumed misreporting was fixed across ages and time was more accurate than the more complicated random walk model, despite the increased flexibility of the latter.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 3
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    Predator stomach contents can provide accurate indices of prey biomass (2021)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-21
    Description: Diet-based annual biomass indices can potentially use predator stomach contents to provide information about prey biomass and may be particularly useful for species that are otherwise poorly sampled, including ecologically important forage fishes. However, diet-based biomass indices may be sensitive to underlying ecological dynamics between predators and prey, such as predator functional responses and changes in overlap in space and time. To evaluate these factors, we fit spatio-temporal models to stomach contents of five Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) predators and survey catch data for predators and Atlantic herring. We identified drivers of variation in stomach contents, evaluated spatial patterns in stomach content data, and produced predator-specific indices of seasonal Atlantic herring biomass. After controlling for spatio-temporal processes and predator length, diet-based indices of biomass shared similar decadal trends but varied substantially between predators and seasons on shorter time scales. Diet-based indices reflected prey biomass more than prey availability, but weak correlations indicated that not all biological processes were controlled for. Results provide potential guidance for developing diet-based biomass indices and contribute to a body of evidence demonstrating the utility of predator diet data to provide information about relative prey biomass.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 4
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    Comment on “Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery” (2016)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-04-22
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science
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  • 5
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    Environmental drivers and trends in forage fish occupancy of the Northeast US shelf (2022)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Suca, J. J., Deroba, J. J., Richardson, D. E., Ji, R., & Llopiz, J. K. Environmental drivers and trends in forage fish occupancy of the Northeast US shelf. Ices Journal of Marine Science, 78(10), (2021): 3687–3708, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab214.
    Description: The Northeast US shelf ecosystem is undergoing unprecedented changes due to long-term warming trends and shifts in regional hydrography leading to changes in community composition. However, it remains uncertain how shelf occupancy by the region's dominant, offshore small pelagic fishes, also known as forage fishes, has changed throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Here, we use species distribution models to estimate the change in shelf occupancy, mean weighted latitude, and mean weighted depth of six forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, and whether those trends were linked to coincident hydrographic conditions. Our results suggest that observed shelf occupancy is increasing or unchanging for most species in both spring and fall, linked both to gear shifts and increasing bottom temperature and salinity. Exceptions include decreases to observed shelf occupancy by sand lance and decreases to Atlantic herring's inferred habitat suitability in the fall. Our work shows that changes in shelf occupancy and inferred habitat suitability have varying coherence, indicating complex mechanisms behind observed shelf occupancy for many species. Future work and management can use these results to better isolate the aspects of forage fish life histories that are important for determining their occupancy of the Northeast US shelf.
    Description: Funding came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Woods Hole Sea Grant Program (NA18OAR4170104, Project number R/O-57; RJ and JKL) and a National Science Foundation Long-term Ecological Research grant for the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem (OCE1655686; RJ and JKL). JJS was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship program.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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