ALBERT

Description: At the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York. Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in Jamaica, The Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the capability and potential for near-real-time analysis of catastrophes. It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events, both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct economic losses are estimated about USD 4.2 billion in the Caribbean and between USD 78 and 97 billion in the US. Indirect economic losses from power outages is estimated in the order of USD 16.3 billion. Modelling sector-specific dependencies quantifies total business interruption losses between USD 10.8 and 15.5 billion. Thus, seven years after the record impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in the history of the United States.

Description: At the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York. Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in Jamaica, Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the capability and potential for near-real time analysis of catastrophes. It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events, both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct economic losses are estimated about 4.2 billion US$ in the Caribbean and between 78 and 97 billion US$ for the US. Indirect economic losses from power outages is estimated in the order of 16.3 billion US$. Modelling sector-specific dependencies, quantifies total business interruption losses between 10.8 and 15.5 billion US$. Thus, seven years after the record impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in the history of the United States.

Description: Crises like climate change, the recent pandemic and the war in Ukraine have a profound effect on all of us. Crises are growing in number, severity and complexity, and at an accelerating pace. The connectedness of European societies increases their vulnerability, and today’s crises have multiple cascading and rippling effects that can extend to all parts of society, the economy and environment. The need for effective strategic crisis management is evident and, given the increasingly transboundary nature of crises, the EU has emerged as an important player. Crisis management can be highly sectoral and not always geared to effective performance over the long term, especially when crises become protracted. The consequences of failed or ineffective crisis management can be severe, with rising inequalities and negative impacts such as political fragmentation, societal polarisation and economic disruption. Recent crises have illustrated starkly the need for preparation, improved capacity and resources. This Evidence Review Report is designed to address issues described in the scoping paper,1 which sets out the formal request for advice from the European College of Commissioners to the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors to the European Commission. This report synthesises the evidence in response to the main question from the scoping paper: Based on a broad and multidisciplinary understanding, how can the EU improve its strategic crisis management? This report focuses on the strategic level, involving those decision-makers and policymakers who are responsible and accountable for the outcome of a crisis. During the response phase in particular, strategic issues are often neglected because of the urgent need to act and react. For a response to be effective, it is essential to develop rapid decision-making capabilities and appropriate resources. Although crises are all different in terms of their type, duration and governance arrangements, there are underlying principles that are common to their management. This report identifies fundamental generic principles and frameworks that relate to the roles played by the EU in strategic crisis management. It provides concrete examples of past and ongoing crises, reflecting on trends and developments in the field. Importantly, it embeds strategic crisis management within the context of risk and resilience.

Description: To prevent floods from becoming disasters, social vulnerability must be integrated into flood risk management. We advocate that the welfare of different societal groups should be included by adding recovery capacity, impacts of beyond-design events, and distributional impacts. Societies have prospered in river valleys, deltas, and coastal areas thanks to effective strategies to cope with flood hazards. However, floods have been increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change and increasing exposure. Governments worldwide aim to develop strategies to reduce flood risks, usually favoring the measures with the largest risk reduction benefits and the lowest costs for a range of sufficiently likely hazard events. Here, the costs conventionally considered are the direct damages. The high impact of recent extreme but rare events such as the 2022 floods in Pakistan and Malawi, the July 2021 flood in Northwestern Europe, the devastation due to Hurricane Iota in the Central Americas (2020), or the 2017 flooding of Houston, Texas, have brought us to rethink flood risk management. In conventional risk analyses rare, extreme events typically have little importance, because the expected annual damage–the indicator of conventional risk approaches–is often dominated by events that have a high probability but cause relatively low damage. Risk reduction measures conventionally aim to reduce direct impacts and total flood risks while minimizing costs. In contrast, it is rarer for measures to be implemented that enhance the ability to cope with flood hazards and to recover rapidly, to reduce indirect flood effects and to account for the distribution of impacts over wealthier and poorer communities1 This may result in strategies that amplify existing inequalities, promote already wealthy societal groups2 and neglect disastrous outliers. Climate change and the related increase in flood hazards require additional investments into flood risk management. This opens a window of opportunity to ensure new investments contribute to a fairer and more resilient world. We argue that policy makers should adopt a resilience lens that utilises more comprehensive analyses, rooted in societal welfare.

Description: At the end of October 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean and entered the United States not far from New York. Along its track, Sandy caused more than 200 fatalities and severe losses in Jamaica, Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and the US. This paper demonstrates the capability and potential for near-real time analysis of catastrophes. It is shown that the impact of Sandy was driven by the superposition of different extremes (high wind speeds, storm surge, heavy precipitation) and by cascading effects. In particular the interaction between Sandy and an extra-tropical weather system created a huge storm that affected large areas in the US. It is examined how Sandy compares to historic hurricane events, both from a hydro-meteorological and impact perspective. The distribution of losses to different sectors of the economy is calculated with simple input-output models as well as government estimates. Direct economic losses are estimated about 4.2 billion US$ in the Caribbean and between 78 and 97 billion US$ for the US. Indirect economic losses from power outages is estimated in the order of 16.3 billion US$. Modelling sector-specific dependencies, quantifies total business interruption losses between 10.8 and 15.5 billion US$. Thus, seven years after the record impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in the history of the United States.