ALBERT

Description: In this paper, we investigate how climate, land use, habitat characteristics, and socioeconomic activities contribute to predict the current potential distributions of the “100 among the world's worst invasive alien species”. We calculated the predictive power of each of the 41 variables for the 95 species including a large number of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates. We then calibrated the species distribution models with a set of appropriate variables for each invasive alien species to predict the potential distribution of these species and identify the major regions of origin of the invasive alien species. We found that climate variables were primarily predictors of the distribution of the global invaders studied. In addition, the habitat characteristics were also important predictors following by the socioeconomic variables such as the nearest distance to airports, seaports and human population density. We show that the potential areas at the highest risk of invasions from these species are located in Western Europe, Eastern United States, Central America, the eastern coast of Australia, and some Indonesian islands. We argue that these potential hotspots of invasions should be monitored in priority to prevent new invasions from these species. This study provides evidence of the importance of considering both habitat characteristics, socioeconomic and climate change factors for the current and future predictions of biological invasions.

Description: In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Tittensor, Derek P -- Walpole, Matt -- Hill, Samantha L L -- Boyce, Daniel G -- Britten, Gregory L -- Burgess, Neil D -- Butchart, Stuart H M -- Leadley, Paul W -- Regan, Eugenie C -- Alkemade, Rob -- Baumung, Roswitha -- Bellard, Celine -- Bouwman, Lex -- Bowles-Newark, Nadine J -- Chenery, Anna M -- Cheung, William W L -- Christensen, Villy -- Cooper, H David -- Crowther, Annabel R -- Dixon, Matthew J R -- Galli, Alessandro -- Gaveau, Valerie -- Gregory, Richard D -- Gutierrez, Nicolas L -- Hirsch, Tim L -- Hoft, Robert -- Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R -- Karmann, Marion -- Krug, Cornelia B -- Leverington, Fiona J -- Loh, Jonathan -- Lojenga, Rik Kutsch -- Malsch, Kelly -- Marques, Alexandra -- Morgan, David H W -- Mumby, Peter J -- Newbold, Tim -- Noonan-Mooney, Kieran -- Pagad, Shyama N -- Parks, Bradley C -- Pereira, Henrique M -- Robertson, Tim -- Rondinini, Carlo -- Santini, Luca -- Scharlemann, Jorn P W -- Schindler, Stefan -- Sumaila, U Rashid -- Teh, Louise S L -- van Kolck, Jennifer -- Visconti, Piero -- Ye, Yimin -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2014 Oct 10;346(6206):241-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1257484. Epub 2014 Oct 2.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada. derek.tittensor@unep-wcmc.org. ; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. ; Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada. Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Post Office Box 1006, Dartmouth, NS B2Y 4A2, Canada. ; Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada. ; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Centre for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum, Copenhagen, DK-2100, Denmark. ; BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge CB3 0NA, UK. ; ESE Laboratory, Universite Paris-Sud, UMR 8079, CNRS-Universite Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay, France. ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Post Office Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, Netherlands. ; Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy. ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Post Office Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, Netherlands. Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Post Office Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. ; Fisheries Centre, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. ; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, 413, Saint Jacques Street, Suite 800, Montreal, QC H2Y 1N9, Canada. ; Global Footprint Network, 7-9 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Geneva, Switzerland. ; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2 rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. ; RSPB Centre for Conservation Science The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK. ; Marine Stewardship Council, 1-3 Snow Hill, London EC1A 2DH, UK. ; The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) Secretariat Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. ; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA. ; Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) International, Charles-de-Gaulle Strasse 5, 53113 Bonn, Germany. ; ESE Laboratory, Universite Paris-Sud, UMR 8079, CNRS-Universite Paris-Sud, 91405 Orsay, France. DIVERSITAS, 57 rue Cuvier-CP 41, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France. ; University of Queensland, Diamantina National Park via Winton, QLD 4735, Australia. ; Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK. ; Union for Ethical BioTrade, De Ruyterkade 6, 1013 AA, Amsterdam, Netherlands. ; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany. Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany. ; Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species Secretariat, Maison internationale de l'environnement, 11-13 Chemin des Anemones, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, Switzerland. ; Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia Brisbane, Qld 4072 Australia. ; The International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission (IUCN SSC) Invasive Species Specialist Group, University of Auckland, Tamaki Campus, Auckland, New Zealand. ; AidData, The College of William and Mary, Post Office Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795, USA. ; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza-Universita di Roma, Viale dell' Universita 32, 00185 Rome, Italy. ; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK. ; Environment Agency Austria, Department of Biodiversity and Nature Conservation, Spittelauer Lande 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria. University of Vienna, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation Ecology and Landscape Ecology, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria. ; Microsoft Research, Computational Science Laboratory, 21 Station Road, Cambridge, CB1 2FB, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25278504" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉

Description: Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the “ 100 of the world's worst invasive species ” defined by the IUCN, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: SUMMARYThere is an urgent need to understand how climate change, including sea-level rise, is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects, such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change, and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot, were modelled and assessed for the 2070–2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affectc. 100000 km2, and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot, as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change, and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture.