ALBERT

Description: Although wave-driven abrasion of submarine bedrock affects the evolution of rocky coasts and reefs globally, the dependence of the abrasion rate on wave forcing and sediment availability remains poorly quantified. We performed experiments in which an artificial substrate was abraded by varying amounts of coarse-grained sediment subjected to oscillatory flows. In these experiments, the bedrock incision rate scaled by the square of bedrock tensile strength (I, m yr–1 MPa2) varied with mean root-mean-square (rms) velocity (, m s–1) according to a power law, I = 1.04.2 (angle brackets indicate time-averaging over an entire experiment). Additionally, the relationship between sediment load and bedrock incision rate demonstrates tools and cover effects similar to abrasion in fluvial environments, such that incision is fastest at intermediate sediment loads. However, because oscillatory flows accumulate sediment into bedforms, the increased bedrock exposure reduces the efficiency of the cover effect for high sediment loads relative to unidirectional flow. Our results provide an empirical model that can be used to predict bedrock incision rates in nearshore environments based on wave forcing.

Description: Globally, seagrass habitats have experienced sharp declines over the past century, with an annual loss of seagrass cover of 7%yr-1 since 1990. Despite the attention to seagrass this decline has brought, little research has been directed towards trends of seagrass habitats in Singapore. The research presented here developed and applied remote sensing methods to partially fill this gap, provide tools for more extensive monitoring in the future, and contribute to the global body of seagrass research. Satellite images from four different satellite sensors were used to estimate seagrass bed extent in Singapore’s second largest seagrass meadow, at Pulau Semakau, from 2001 to 2013. Statistical estimates of image signal-to-noise ratios were used to screen images for quality. Validation data collected in 2013 were used to estimate error for supervised classifications produced from each sensor. A novel method was explored to account for macroalgae blooms in the study area, but the resulting correction could not be validated and did not affect the overall trends in seagrass bed extent. In addition to the classification analysis, an empirical model linking remote sensing reflectance to above-ground biomass was constructed to examine the distribution of seagrass within the meadow. Applied to WV2 images from 2011 and 2013, this model produced estimates of above-ground biomass with root mean squared error (RMSE) of 54 gm-2 and 44.7 gm-2, respectively, within ranges of 0-288 gm-2 and 0-229 gm-2, respectively. A novel index to measure seagrass density non-destructively was developed to help conservation and monitoring efforts. This index, normalized canopy index (NCI), was estimated from satellite imagery more precisely than above-ground biomass, producing estimates from the 2013 WV2 image corresponding to field data with an R2 of 0.71 relative to the R2 of 0.39 produced by the above-ground biomass model. This index may be a promising, non-destructive alternative to above-ground biomass for remote sensing studies and should be pursued further in future research. Based on the time-series classification analysis, seagrass bed extent at Pulau Semakau declined from over 44.6 ha in April 2002 to 25.3 ha in June 2013. This decline occurred at an average of 5.1%yr-1 from 2001 to 2013, although this rate of decline slowed to 3.7%yr-1 in 2012. These declines are likely representative of other seagrass habitats in Singapore. Broader monitoring is required to determine to what extent Singapore’s seagrasses are disappearing. Although seagrass bed extent declined by 17% from April 2011 to June 2013, over the same time period total above-ground biomass in the seagrass meadow declined only 5%, from 41.6 Mg to 39.6 Mg. Two acute sedimentation events recorded over this time period corresponded to a large and permanent decrease in bed extent captured by WV2 imagery and a small and temporary decrease in bed extent captured by ALI imagery. I hypothesize that the discrepancy in decreases in extent and biomass, coupled with an increase in median biomass, is attributable to preferential survival and recolonization of dense-biomass seagrass species during these sedimentation events. Measurements of seagrass species abundance during this time period provide support for this hypothesis. This exercise demonstrates the advantages and limitations of monitoring seagrass bed extent and above-ground biomass. Bed extent provides a measure of overall viability of a seagrass meadow, but above-ground biomass provides a better index of spatially variable health and internal change. Coupled, these two measurements provide greater insight into complex seagrass bed processes and seagrass response to disturbance.

Description: Masters

Description: Globally, seagrass habitats have experienced sharp declines over the past century, with an annual loss of seagrass cover of 7%yr-1 since 1990. Despite the attention to seagrass this decline has brought, little research has been directed towards trends of seagrass habitats in Singapore. The research presented here developed and applied remote sensing methods to partially fill this gap, provide tools for more extensive monitoring in the future, and contribute to the global body of seagrass research. Satellite images from four different satellite sensors were used to estimate seagrass bed extent in Singapore’s second largest seagrass meadow, at Pulau Semakau, from 2001 to 2013. Statistical estimates of image signal-to-noise ratios were used to screen images for quality. Validation data collected in 2013 were used to estimate error for supervised classifications produced from each sensor. A novel method was explored to account for macroalgae blooms in the study area, but the resulting correction could not be validated and did not affect the overall trends in seagrass bed extent. In addition to the classification analysis, an empirical model linking remote sensing reflectance to above-ground biomass was constructed to examine the distribution of seagrass within the meadow. Applied to WV2 images from 2011 and 2013, this model produced estimates of above-ground biomass with root mean squared error (RMSE) of 54 gm-2 and 44.7 gm-2, respectively, within ranges of 0-288 gm-2 and 0-229 gm-2, respectively. A novel index to measure seagrass density non-destructively was developed to help conservation and monitoring efforts. This index, normalized canopy index (NCI), was estimated from satellite imagery more precisely than above-ground biomass, producing estimates from the 2013 WV2 image corresponding to field data with an R2 of 0.71 relative to the R2 of 0.39 produced by the above-ground biomass model. This index may be a promising, non-destructive alternative to above-ground biomass for remote sensing studies and should be pursued further in future research. Based on the time-series classification analysis, seagrass bed extent at Pulau Semakau declined from over 44.6 ha in April 2002 to 25.3 ha in June 2013. This decline occurred at an average of 5.1%yr-1 from 2001 to 2013, although this rate of decline slowed to 3.7%yr-1 in 2012. These declines are likely representative of other seagrass habitats in Singapore. Broader monitoring is required to determine to what extent Singapore’s seagrasses are disappearing. Although seagrass bed extent declined by 17% from April 2011 to June 2013, over the same time period total above-ground biomass in the seagrass meadow declined only 5%, from 41.6 Mg to 39.6 Mg. Two acute sedimentation events recorded over this time period corresponded to a large and permanent decrease in bed extent captured by WV2 imagery and a small and temporary decrease in bed extent captured by ALI imagery. I hypothesize that the discrepancy in decreases in extent and biomass, coupled with an increase in median biomass, is attributable to preferential survival and recolonization of dense-biomass seagrass species during these sedimentation events. Measurements of seagrass species abundance during this time period provide support for this hypothesis. This exercise demonstrates the advantages and limitations of monitoring seagrass bed extent and above-ground biomass. Bed extent provides a measure of overall viability of a seagrass meadow, but above-ground biomass provides a better index of spatially variable health and internal change. Coupled, these two measurements provide greater insight into complex seagrass bed processes and seagrass response to disturbance.

Description: Masters

Description: Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution February 2020.

Description: The shallow marine ecosystems of coral atolls and the human communities they support are among the most vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise threatens to inundate low-lying reef islands, tropical cyclone intensification threatens islands with flooding and erosion, and ocean warming and acidification threaten the health of coral reefs. Unfortunately, the sediment dynamics that shape the morphology of coral reefs and atoll reef islands are poorly understood, hindering predictions of coral atoll responses to climate change forcing. Here, I apply an eclectic set of methods, including numerical modeling, physical lab experiments, and sedimentological analysis, to produce insights into the ways tropical cyclones and waves move sediment on fringing reefs. First, I use a numerical model of hydrodynamics to predict the influence of sea-level rise and wave climate change on sediment transport across a coral atoll fringing reef. I demonstrate that by the end of the century, sea-level rise will reduce sediment transport rates from the fore reef to the beach, but increase transport rates from the reef flat to the beach. Wave climate change will have relatively negligible influence on cross-reef sediment transport. Additionally, I use the weathering of foraminifera tests to produce a sediment proxy of transport duration and direction across atoll reef flats, but demonstrate that the proxy does not clearly identify storm deposits. Second, I execute a series of experiments in an oscillating flow tunnel to constrain the rate at which sediment erodes reef surfaces under waves. I find that the erosion rate increases as a power law of wave orbital velocity, and that amount of sediment has a second-order influence. Finally, I establish grain size in a sediment core retrieved from a blue hole in the Marshall Islands as a proxy for tropical cyclone genesis and, using the results from an ensemble of climate models, demonstrate that enhanced tropical cyclogenesis during the Little Ice Age may have been driven by an anomalously negative Pacific Meridional Mode. This thesis demonstrates the importance of sediment dynamics on the morphology of fringing reefs and atoll reef islands and the sensitivity of those dynamics to centennial climate variability.

Description: Funding for this project was provided by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP RC-2336).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 125 (2020): e2019JF005446, doi: 10.1029/2019JF005446.

Description: Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.

Description: This study was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through awards SERDP: RC‐2334, and RC‐2336. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Description: 2021-03-25

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2020. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bramante, J. F., Ford, M. R., Kench, P. S., Ashton, A. D., Toomey, M. R., Sullivan, R. M., Karnauskas, K. B., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Donnelly, J. P. (2020). Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes. Nature Geoscience, 13, 806–811. doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2.

Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Description: This work was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP RC-2336). C.C.U. acknowledges support from NSF under AGS-1602455. We thank student intern D. Carter for extensive labwork on core LTD3. We acknowledge the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. CMIP5 model output was provided by the WHOI CMIP5 Community Storage Server via their website: http://cmip5.whoi.edu/. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

Description: 2021-05-16

Description: The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of climate’s influence on tropical cyclone behavior is restricted by the short historical record and sparse prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis and compare with other records to explore past regional typhoon dynamics. These records demonstrate low baseline activity prior to 1350 C.E. followed by a rapid culmination in activity during the Little Ice Age. This pattern is concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggesting a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. Using an ensemble of global climate models, we demonstrate that migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. Changes to Walker Circulation and expansion of the tropics projected for the next century invert Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Description: This project was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through award SERDP RC-2336