ALBERT

Description: The relationships between modern pollen and floristic plant richness, diversity and evenness are assessed using pollen assemblages and associated vegetation data from 52 lakes along an elevational and vegetational gradient in the Setesdal valley of south-central Norway. Various data transformations were applied to minimise bias in the vegetation and pollen datasets. Plant species were transformed to their pollen or spore equivalents to reduce taxonomic biases. Pollen counts were transformed using Andersen’s general pollen-representation values for northern European trees and shrubs and the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model with pollen-productivity estimates (PPEs) appropriate for Setesdal to minimise pollen-representation bias. Pollen count-size bias (before or after transformation) was eliminated by rarefaction analysis based on bootstrap resampling. Richness and diversity were quantified using Hill numbers ( N 0, N 1, N 2), and evenness was estimated as the ratios of N 0, N 1 and N 2. Diversity partitioning was used to estimate β diversity. The strongest correlations between pollen and plant richness and diversity are with pollen counts transformed using Andersen’s representation values and rarefied to a common count size and with plants transformed to their pollen equivalents. However, if sites from the low-alpine zone are excluded where there are high values of far-transported tree pollen, the richness and diversity relationships are also statistically significant for untransformed pollen data and plants transformed into their pollen equivalents. The effects of data transformation on diversity partitioning and estimates of β diversity are explored. We demonstrate that there are statistically significant positive relationships between pollen and plant richness and diversity along the entire elevational gradient after transforming the datasets to minimise biases due to taxonomic differences, differential pollen representation, and pollen-count size, and similar significant positive relationships along the forested parts of the gradient (nemoral, boreonemoral, southern boreal, middle boreal) after transforming the datasets to minimise biases due to taxonomic differences and pollen-count size.

Description: We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.

Description: Palaeoecological records provide a rich source of information to explore how plant distribution ranges respond to climate changes, but their use is complicated by the fact that, especially when based on pollen data, they are often spatially too inaccurate to reliably determine past range limits. To solve this problem, we focus on hazel ( Corylus avellana ), a tree species with large and heavy fruits (nuts), which provide firm evidence of the local occurrence of species in the past. We combine the fossil nut records of hazel from Fennoscandia, map its maximum distribution range during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) and compare the fossil record with the Holocene hazel range shift as simulated by the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. The results show that the current northern range limit of hazel in central and eastern Fennoscandia is constrained by too short growing seasons and too long and cold winters and demonstrate that the species responded to the HTM warming of about 2.5°C (relative to the present) by shifting its range limit up to 63–64°N, reached a rough equilibrium with the HTM climatic conditions and retreated from there to about 60°N during the last 4000 years in response to the late-Holocene cooling. Thus, the projected future warming of about 2.5°C would reverse the long-term southward retraction of species’ northern range limit in Europe and is likely to lead to hazel being a common, regeneratively reproductive species up to 63–64°N. In addition to the accuracy of the projected warming, the likelihood of this scenario will depend on inter-specific competition with other tree taxa and the potential of hazel to migrate and its population to grow in balance with the warming. In general, the range dynamics from the HTM to the present suggest a tight climatic control over hazel’s range limit in Fennoscandia.

Description: Palaeoecology and ecology have a lot in common. However, the two disciplines have evolved almost separately, leading to an ongoing debate on how to link them better, as both would undoubtedly benefit from a higher degree of cross-fertilisation of ideas, research insights and questions. In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in the two branches of ecology over the past 40 years by assessing the publication output from an unusually large cohort of ‘academic siblings’ – researchers in ecology and palaeoecology who all share one of the strongest career-shaping influences on researchers; their supervisor. This was made possible by John Birks’ long and active career within ecology and palaeoecology, and his supervision of a large number of students in both fields ( n = 12 and 21, respectively). Among them, John Birks’ academic progeny has published 934 papers in the international peer-reviewed literature. We collected information on the year, titles, keywords and journals of all these publications and used these data to assess the extent of, and find potential explanations for, the historical and present-day separation of ecology and palaeoecology. Despite considerable thematic overlap, there is a real and possibly widening division between the two branches that is visible both at the scale of individual research careers, journals and papers. We argue that rather than being unique to the relationship between palaeoecology and ecology, this reflects trends for thematic and methodological specialisation evident across the research landscape. We propose that both individual researchers and journals would benefit from, and can contribute to, closing the gaps developing between various ‘special branches’ in science. A good title, an informative abstract, a careful and thought-through selection of keywords and a focus on readability and avoidance of jargon will likely improve readership and impact both within one’s own ‘special branch’ and beyond.

Description: Reconstructing and interpreting past vegetation composition can be enhanced by studying modern pollen samples and contemporary vegetation. Here, we compare pollen in surface sediments from 52 medium-sized lakes with the surrounding vegetation along an elevational gradient covering six major vegetation zones in south-central Norway. The aims are to detect how well the vegetational composition and terrestrial pollen assemblages distinguish the major vegetation zones, whether the pollen composition in surface-sediment samples reflects the composition of the surrounding vegetation and whether aquatic pollen and spores reflect the major vegetation zones. We use multivariate classification trees, ordination and co-correspondence analysis to address these questions. We show that it is possible to separate the major zones using terrestrial pollen assemblages and using plant species in the vegetation reasonably well, whereas aquatic pollen and spores poorly reflect the zones. Surprisingly, the terrestrial pollen assemblages separate the zones better than vegetational composition does. The compositional match between the pollen assemblages and surrounding vegetation is consistent for sites along the elevational gradient within the forested zones, but deteriorates in increasingly open vegetation zones. Our results are consistent with other investigations of modern pollen–vegetation relationships. Careful interpretation of past vegetation from pollen assemblages is needed when the vegetation is treeless because of a larger potential pollen-source area and hence a higher proportion of long-distance dispersed pollen in open areas.

Description: This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Description: A synthesis of well-dated high-resolution pollen records suggests a spatial structure in the 8200 cal yr BP event in northern Europe. The temperate, thermophilous tree taxa, especially Corylus, Ulmus, and Alnus, decline abruptly between 8300 and 8000 cal yr BP at most sites located south of 61° N, whereas there is no clear change in pollen values at the sites located in the North-European tree-line region. Pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and several other, independent palaeoclimate proxies, such as lacustrine oxygen-isotope records, reflect the same pattern, with no detectable cooling in the sub-arctic region. The observed patterns challenges the general view of the wide-spread occurrence of the 8200 cal yr BP event in the North Atlantic region. An alternative explanation is that the cooling during the 8200 cal yr BP event took place mostly during the winter and spring, and the ecosystems in the south responded sensitively to the cooling during the onset of the growing season. In contrast, in the sub-arctic area, where the vegetation was still dormant and lakes ice-covered, the cold event is not reflected in pollen-based or lake-sediment-based records.

Description: A synthesis of well-dated high-resolution pollen records suggests a spatial structure in the 8200 cal yr BP event in northern Europe. The temperate, thermophilous tree taxa, especially Corylus, Ulmus, and Alnus, decline abruptly between 8300 and 8000 cal yr BP at most sites located south of 61° N, whereas there is no clear change in pollen values at the sites located in the North-European tree-line region. Pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and several other, independent palaeoclimate proxies, such as lacustrine oxygen-isotope records, reflect the same pattern, with no detectable cooling in the sub-arctic region. The observed pattern would challenge the general view of the wide-spread occurrence of the 8200 cal yr BP event in the North Atlantic region. An alternative explanation is that the cooling during the 8200 cal yr BP event took place mostly during the winter and spring, and the ecosystems in the south responded sensitively to the cooling during the onset of the growing season. In contrast, in the sub-arctic area, where the vegetation was still dormant and lakes ice-covered, the cold event is not reflected in pollen-based or lake-sediment-based records. The arctic regions may therefore not always be optimal for detecting past climate changes.

Description: The threat of future global warming has generated a major interest in quantifying past climate variability on centennial and millennial time-scales. However, palaeoclimatological records are often noisy and arguments about past variability are only possible if they are based on reproducible features in several reliably dated datasets. Here we focus on the last 9000 years, explore the results of 35 Holocene pollen-based July mean and annual mean temperature reconstructions from Northern Europe by stacking them to create summary curves, and compare them with a high-resolution, summary chironomid-based temperature record and other independent palaeoclimate records. The stacked records show that the "Holocene Thermal Maximum" in the region dates to 8000 to 4800 cal yr BP and that the "8.2 event" and the "Little Ice Age" at 500–100 cal yr BP are the clearest cold episodes during the Holocene. In addition, a more detailed analysis of the last 5000 years pinpoints centennial-scale climate variability with cold anomalies at 3800–3000 and 500–100 cal yr BP, a long, warmer period around 2000 cal yr BP, and a marked warming since the mid 19th century. The colder (warmer) anomalies are associated with increased (decreased) humidity over the Northern European mainland, consistent with the modern high correlation between cold (warm) and humid (dry) modes of summer weather in the region. A comparison with the key proxy records reflecting the main forcing factors does not support the hypothesis that solar variability is the cause of the late-Holocene centennial-scale temperature changes. We suggest that the reconstructed anomalies are typical of Northern Europe and their occurrence may be related to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic–North-European region.