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  • 1
    Dissertations
    Dissertations
    Impacts of arctic climate change on sea level and atmospheric circulation in the Northern mid-latitudes (2018)
    Potsdam
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK N 456-19-92699
    Type of Medium: Dissertations
    Pages: 1 Band (verschiedene Seitenzählungen) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    Language: English
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
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    Submarine melt parameterization for a Greenland glacial system model (2017)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-01-04
    Description: Two hundreds of marine-terminating Greenland outlet glaciers deliver more than half of the annually accumulated ice into the ocean and play an important role in the Greenland ice sheet mass loss observed since the mid 1990s. Submarine melt plays a crucial role in the mass balance and position of the grounding line of these outlet glaciers. As the ocean warms, it is expected that submarine melt will increase and outlet glaciers will retreat, contributing to sea level rise. Projections of the future contribution of outlet glaciers to sea level rise is hampered by the necessity to use extremely high resolution of the order of a few hundred meters both for modelling of the outlet glaciers and as well as coupling them with high resolution 3D ocean models. In addition fjord bathymetry data are mostly missing or are inaccurate (errors of several 100s of meters), which questions the benefit of using computational expensive 3D models for future predictions. Here we propose an alternative approach based on using of computationally efficient parameterization of submarine melt based on turbulent plume theory. We show that such parameterization is in a reasonable agreement with several available modeling studies. We performed a suit of experiments to analyse sensitivity of these parameterizations to model parameters and climate characteristics. We found that the computationally cheap plume model demonstrates qualitatively similar behaviour as 3D gerneral circulation models. To match results of the 3D models in a quantitative manner, a scaling factor in the order of one is needed for the plume models. We applied this approach to model submarine melt for six representative Greenland glaciers and found that the parameterization of a line plume can produce submarine melt compatible with observational data. Our results show that the line plume model is more appropriate than the cone plume model for simulating the submarine melting of real glaciers in Greenland.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
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    Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model (2019)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-05
    Description: In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25 % of contemporary sea level rise (SLR). This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only simplistically incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of 12 representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled line–plume glacier–flow line model resolving one horizontal dimension. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also use different initial temperature–salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimate uncertainties in the contribution to global SLR for individual glaciers. We also perform a sensitivity analysis of the three forcing factors (changes in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge), which shows that the roles of the different forcing factors are diverse for individual glaciers. We find that changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all 12 glaciers to global SLR in the 21st century. The median range of the cumulative contribution to the global SLR for all 12 glaciers is about 18 mm (the glaciers' dynamic response to changes of all three forcing factors). Neglecting changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge (which control submarine melt) and investigating the response to changes in surface mass balance only leads to a cumulative contribution of 5 mm SLR. Thus, from the 18 mm we associate roughly 70 % with the glaciers' dynamic response to increased subglacial discharge and ocean temperature and the remaining 30 % (5 mm) to the response to increased surface mass loss. We also find a strong correlation (correlation coefficient 0.74) between present-day grounding line discharge and their future contribution to SLR in 2100. If the contribution of the 12 glaciers is scaled up to the total present-day discharge of Greenland, we estimate the midrange contribution of all Greenland glaciers to 21st-century SLR to be approximately 50 mm. This number adds to SLR derived from a stand-alone ice sheet model (880 mm) that does not resolve outlet glaciers and thus increases SLR by over 50 %. This result confirms earlier studies showing that the response of the outlet glaciers to global warming has to be taken into account to correctly assess the total contribution of Greenland to sea level change.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
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    Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flowline-plume model (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-05-14
    Description: In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced an accelerated mass loss, contributing to approximately 25% of contemporary sea level rise. This mass loss is caused by increased surface melt over a large area of the ice sheet and by the thinning, retreat and acceleration of numerous Greenland outlet glaciers. The latter is likely connected to enhanced submarine melting that, in turn, can be explained by ocean warming and enhanced subglacial discharge. The mechanisms involved in submarine melting are not yet fully understood and are only crudely incorporated in some models of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Here, we investigate the response of twelve representative Greenland outlet glaciers to atmospheric and oceanic warming using a coupled 1D line-plume glacier-flowline model. The model parameters have been tuned for individual outlet glaciers using present-day observational constraints. We then run the model from present to the year 2100, forcing the model with changes in surface mass balance and surface runoff from simulations with a regional climate model for the RCP 8.5 scenario, and applying a linear ocean temperature warming with different rates of changes representing uncertainties in the CMIP 5 model experiments for the same climate change scenario. We also used different initial temperature-salinity profiles obtained from direct measurements and from ocean reanalysis data. Using different combinations of submarine melting and calving parameters that reproduce the present-day state of the glaciers, we estimated uncertainties in the contribution to global sea level rise for individual glaciers. We also performed a factor analysis, which shows that the role of different forcing (change in surface mass balance, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge) are diverse for individual glaciers. We found that changes in, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are of comparable importance for the cumulative contribution of all twelve glaciers to global sea level rise in the 21st century. The median range of the cumulative contribution to the global sea level rise for all twelve glaciers is about 14 mm from which roughly 85% are associated with the response to increased submarine melting and the remaining part to surface mass loss. We also found a weak correlation (correlation coefficient 0.35) between present-day grounding line discharge and their future contribution to sea level rise in 2100. If the contribution of the twelve glaciers is scaled up to the total present-day discharge of Greenland, we estimate the contribution of all Greenland glaciers to 21st-century sea level rise to be approximately 50mm. This result confirms earlier studies that the response of the outlet glaciers to global warming has to be taken into account to correctly assess the total contribution of Greenland to sea level change.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 5
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    Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-10-02
    Description: We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 6
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    Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-20
    Description: We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. Aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute to global sea level rise between 1.9 and 13.0 cm until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking Helheim and Store Glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0432
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0440
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 7
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    Simple models for the simulation of submarine melt for a Greenland glacial system model (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-01-26
    Description: Two hundred marine-terminating Greenland outlet glaciers deliver more than half of the annually accumulated ice into the ocean and have played an important role in the Greenland ice sheet mass loss observed since the mid-1990s. Submarine melt may play a crucial role in the mass balance and position of the grounding line of these outlet glaciers. As the ocean warms, it is expected that submarine melt will increase, potentially driving outlet glaciers retreat and contributing to sea level rise. Projections of the future contribution of outlet glaciers to sea level rise are hampered by the necessity to use models with extremely high resolution of the order of a few hundred meters. That requirement in not only demanded when modeling outlet glaciers as a stand alone model but also when coupling them with high-resolution 3-D ocean models. In addition, fjord bathymetry data are mostly missing or inaccurate (errors of several hundreds of meters), which questions the benefit of using computationally expensive 3-D models for future predictions. Here we propose an alternative approach built on the use of a computationally efficient simple model of submarine melt based on turbulent plume theory. We show that such a simple model is in reasonable agreement with several available modeling studies. We performed a suite of experiments to analyze sensitivity of these simple models to model parameters and climate characteristics. We found that the computationally cheap plume model demonstrates qualitatively similar behavior as 3-D general circulation models. To match results of the 3-D models in a quantitative manner, a scaling factor of the order of 1 is needed for the plume models. We applied this approach to model submarine melt for six representative Greenland glaciers and found that the application of a line plume can produce submarine melt compatible with observational data. Our results show that the line plume model is more appropriate than the cone plume model for simulating the average submarine melting of real glaciers in Greenland.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 8
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    Prevalence of Stunting and Relationship between Stunting and Associated Risk Factors with Academic Achievement and Cognitive Function: A Cross-Sectional Study with South African Primary School Children (2021)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-16
    Description: Childhood stunting can have negative long-term consequences on cognitive development, academic achievement, and economic productivity later in life. We determined the prevalence of stunting and examined whether stunting and associated risk factors (low dietary diversity, insufficient hemoglobin, food insecurity, and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections) are associated with academic achievement and cognitive function among South African children living in marginalized communities. A cross-sectional sample of 1277 children (aged 5–12 years) was analyzed. Stunting was defined according to 2007 WHO growth references. Cognitive functioning was measured with the computerized Flanker task and academic performance via school grades. Blood and stool samples were collected to obtain hemoglobin level and STH infection. Dietary diversity was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Associations were examined via mixed linear regression (with school class as a random intercept). Nine percent of the children were stunted (95% CI: 7.6–10.8%). Low dietary diversity (β = 0.13, p = 0.004), food insecurity (β = −0.12, p = 0.034), and stunting (β = −0.13, p = 0.031) were associated with poorer end of the year results among girls. No such associations were found among boys. No significant associations were found for socioeconomic status and hemoglobin levels. The prevalence of stunting and STH infections were low in the present sample. Risk factors seem differently associated with girls’ and boys’ academic achievement. Promoting nutrition may help to promote academic achievement among girls living in low- and middle-income countries.
    Print ISSN: 1661-7827
    Electronic ISSN: 1660-4601
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Medicine
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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  • 9
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    Physical Activity, Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Clustered Cardiovascular Risk in South African Primary Schoolchildren from Disadvantaged Communities: A Cross-Sectional Study (2021)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-21
    Description: The coexistence of multiple cardiovascular risk factors has been reported in school-aged children from the age of nine years, but most evidence stems from high-income countries. This cross-sectional study aimed at describing the cardiovascular health risk, physical activity (PA) behavior and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) levels of South African primary schoolchildren, and at examining the associations between PA/CRF and a composite measure of cardiovascular risk. Cross-sectional data from 832 primary schoolchildren (grade 1–4) were analyzed. Total cholesterol/HDL ratio, triglycerides, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, body fat, and glycated hemoglobin were assessed as cardiovascular risk markers. Data were analyzed via mixed linear regressions and analyses of covariance. Overall, 24.2% of the participants did not meet current PA standards. Higher CRF/PA were associated with lower body fat and lower clustered cardiovascular risk (p 〈 0.05). When categorizing children into CRF/PA quartiles, a lower clustered cardiovascular risk gradient was found in children with higher CRF (p 〈 0.05) or PA (p 〈 0.05). Our data shows that higher CRF/PA is associated with lower clustered cardiovascular risk already from a young age. Given that clustered cardiovascular risk present during childhood can track into adulthood, we advocate for PA participation and a healthy weight from a young age onwards.
    Print ISSN: 1661-7827
    Electronic ISSN: 1660-4601
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Medicine
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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  • 10
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    Associations of Growth Impairment and Body Composition among South African School-Aged Children Enrolled in the KaziAfya Project (2021)
    Molecular Diversity Preservation International
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-09
    Description: (1) Background: Early childhood malnutrition may result in increased fat mass (FM) among school-aged children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We explored whether South African children with shorter stature have greater overall and abdominal FM compared to normal stature children. (2) Methods: Baseline assessments of body composition and weight were determined among school-aged children enrolled in a randomized controlled trial in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Multiple linear regression models tested associations of children’s height and degree of stunting with FM, fat free mass (FFM), truncal fat mass (TrFM), and truncal fat free mass (TrFFM) overall and by sex. (3) Results: A total of 1287 children (619 girls, 668 boys) were assessed at baseline. Reduced child height was associated with higher FM and lower FFM and TrFFM, but these associations were reversed with increases in height. Girls classified as mildly or moderately/severely stunted had higher FM and TrFM but lower FFM and TrFFM, while no association was found for boys. (4) Conclusions: Our study suggests that efforts to reduce the non-communicable disease burden in LMICs should target growth-impaired children who may have greater overall FM and greater abdominal FM.
    Electronic ISSN: 2072-6643
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology
    Published by Molecular Diversity Preservation International
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