ALBERT

Description: The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) for planning operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The morning outlook for peak speeds also begins the warning decision process for gusts ^ 35 kt, ^ 50 kt, and ^ 60 kt from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated that peak wind speeds are a challenging parameter to forecast during the cool season (October-April). The 45 WS requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. The tool must only use data available by 1200 UTC to support the issue time of the Planning Forecasts. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network, surface observations from the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and CCAFS upper-air soundings from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created multiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence, the temperature inversion depth, strength, and wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft. Six synoptic patterns were identified: 1) surface high near or over FL, 2) surface high north or east of FL, 3) surface high south or west of FL, 4) surface front approaching FL, 5) surface front across central FL, and 6) surface front across south FL. The following six predictors were selected: 1) inversion depth, 2) inversion strength, 3) wind gust factor, 4) synoptic weather pattern, 5) occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and 6) strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft. The forecast tool was developed as a graphical user interface with Microsoft Excel to help the forecaster enter the variables, and run the appropriate regression equations. Based on the forecaster's input and regression equations, a forecast of the day's peak and average wind is generated and displayed. The application also outputs the probability that the peak wind speed will be ^ 35 kt, 50 kt, and 60 kt.

Description: Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) and Flight Rules (FR) are used for launches and landings at government and commercial spaceports. They are designed to avoid natural and triggered lightning strikes to space vehicles, which can endanger the vehicle, payload, and general public. The previous LLCC and FR were shown to be overly restrictive, potentially leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. A radar algorithm called Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), along with new LLCC and FR for anvil clouds, were developed using data collected by the Airborne Field Mill II research program. VAHIRR is calculated at every horizontal position in the coverage area of the radar and can be displayed similar to a two-dimensional derived reflectivity product, such as composite reflectivity or echo tops. It is the arithmetic product of two quantities not currently generated by the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D): a volume average of the reflectivity measured in dBZ and the average cloud thickness based on the average echo top height and base height. This presentation will describe the VAHIRR algorithm, and then explain how the VAHIRR radar product was implemented and tested on a clone of the National Weather Service's (NWS) Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG-clone). The VAHIRR radar product was then incorporated into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), to make it more convenient for weather forecasters to utilize. Finally, the reliability of the VAHIRR radar product was tested with real-time level II radar data from the WSR-88D NWS Melbourne radar.

Description: Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. In order for the Anvil Tool to remain available to the meteorologists, the AMU was tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather interactive Processing System (AWIPS). This report describes the work done by the AMU to develop the Anvil Tool for AWIPS to create a graphical overlay depicting the threat from thunderstorm anvil clouds. The AWIPS Anvil Tool is based on the previously deployed AMU MIDDS Anvil Tool. SMG and 45 WS forecasters have used the MIDDS Anvil Tool during launch and landing operations. SMG's primary weather analysis and display system is now AWIPS and the 45 WS has plans to replace MIDDS with AWIPS. The Anvil Tool creates a graphic that users can overlay on satellite or radar imagery to depict the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on an average of the upper-level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 nm standoff circles centered at the location of interest, in addition to one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 degree sector width based on a previous AMU study which determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 degrees of the upper-level (300- to 150-mb) wind direction. This report briefly describes the history of the MIDDS Anvil Tool and then explains how the initial development of the AWIPS Anvil Tool was carried out. After testing was performed by SMG, 45 WS, and AMU, a number of needed improvements were identified. A bug report document was created that showed the status of each bug and desired improvement. This report lists the improvements that were made to increase the accuracy and user-friendliness of the tool. Final testing was carried out and documented and then the final version of the software and Users Guide was provided to SMG and the 45 WS. Several possible future improvements to the tool are identified that would increase the flexibility of the tool. This report contains a brief history of the development of the Anvil Tool in MIDDS, and then describes the transition and development of software to AWIPS.

Description: This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (〈 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.