ALBERT

Description: The following topics are addressed: (1) motivation for the National Meteorological Center (NMC) simulation project; (2) history of the NMC simulation project; (3) experimental design of the WINDSAT observing system simulation experiment; (4) preparation of the simulated observations; and (5) strengths and weaknesses of the experimental design.

Description: Two fraternal twin experiments were conducted as part of this study. A data impact experiment using real data (runs 1 and 2) was conducted to assess the impact that rawin wind observations have on both a 5-day assimilation and a single 5-day forecast generated at the end of each assimilation. An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) using simulated observations (runs 3, 4, and 5) was conducted in order to first calibrate the OSSE results and second to use this calibration to estimate the 'real world' impact from the contribution of global 3-dimensional wind profiles generated from a space-based lidar system known as Windsat. Each of the three runs in the seond experiment were also 5-day assimilation runs with a 5-day forecast initialized from the last 6-hour update cycle of the assimilation. The data impact study revealed a consistent positive impact when rawin winds were added back into an otherwise complete FGGE data set. Both the 6-hour and 5-day forecasts were improved at all levels, in both hemispheres, and for both the wind and the geopotential height fields. Similar results were obtained from the two parallel simulation runs, 3 and 4. Together with the results from runs 1 and 2, calibration coefficients were generated so as to 'correct' the results determined from the addition of Windsat winds (run 5). The Windsat simulation showed a positive improvement in all cases studied. Even though only the tropics were enhanced with these wind observations, hemispheric rms errors were decreased in both the assimilation and 5-day forecast. The 6-hour forecasts of zonal wind from the assimilation run were improved by as much as 50 pct. on the average, and the single forecast showed an average improvement of near 30 pct. Even though these calibrated values are considered too optimistic, the skill of the forecast generated from this run extended the useful forecast period by 18-24 hours.