Publication Date:
2015-10-31
Description:
We have developed UFCORIN, a platform for studying and automating space weather prediction. Using our system we have tested 6,160 different combinations of SDO/HMI data as input data, and simulated the prediction of GOES X-ray flux for 2 years (2011-2012) with one-hour cadence. We have found that direct comparison of the true skill statistics (TSS) from small cross-validation sets is ill-posed, and used the standard scores ( z ) of the TSS to compare the performance of the various prediction strategies. The z of a strategy is a stochastic variable of the stochastically-chosen cross-validation dataset, and the z for the three strategies best at predicting X, ≥M and ≥C class flares are better than the average z of the 6,160 strategies by 2.3 σ , 2.1 σ , 3.8 σ confidence levels, respectively. The best three TSS values were 0.75 ± 0.07, 0.48 ± 0.02, and 0.56 ± 0.04, respectively.
Print ISSN:
1539-4964
Electronic ISSN:
1542-7390
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
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