ALBERT

Description: People across Peru are vulnerable and exposed to a wide range of hazards, and studies demonstrate that these hazards are key drivers of migration in the country. Hydrometeorological hazards resulting in excessive amounts of water (in such forms as torrential rainfalls and floods) – or the lack thereof (in the form of, for example, drought or glacier retreat) – are particularly salient to migration. Climate change has intensified these hazards and will continue to do so, possibly resulting in new and unparalleled impacts on migration. IOM and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have partnered to produce this report, which seeks to shed light on the available evidence on the environment, climate change and migration nexus in Peru. The study puts into perspective various climate risks and hazards that affect communities in the country’s main topographical zones: the coast, the highlands, and the rainforest or jungle. The report provides a systematic review of the complex interaction between climate and other factors driving migration in the country. It discusses the necessity to understand climate migration patterns and improve planning and policies in the short term to the mid-term, in view of several “no-analog threats” – that is, those with unprecedented, large impacts – that could occur towards the end of the century.

Description: Too Much, Too Little Water (policy brief) People across Peru are vulnerable and exposed to a wide range of hazards, and studies demonstrate that these hazards are key drivers of migration in the country. Hydrometeorological hazards resulting in excessive amounts of water (in such forms as torrential rainfalls and floods) – or the lack thereof (such as drought or glacier retreat) – are particularly salient to migration. Climate change has intensified these hazards and will continue to do so, possibly resulting in new and unparalleled impacts on migration. This policy brief, based on a systematic review of the literature and expert interviews, assesses available scientific evidence on the nexus between climate risks and migration in Peru. It discusses the necessity to understand climate migration patterns and improve planning and policies in the short term to the mid-term, in view of several “no-analog threats” – that is, those with unprecedented, large impacts – that could occur towards the end of the century. Recent policy developments in the country, such as the National Plan of Action on Climate Migration and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), can break new ground in addressing these challenges.

Description: Climate change poses a substantial risk to agricultural production in Peru. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are currently developed and outline Peru's mitigation actions and adaptation plans to climate change in various sectors. To support the implementation of adaptation measures in the agricultural sector, information on weather-related risks for crop production and the effectiveness of adaptation options on the local scale are needed. We assess weather influences on starchy maize yields on different scales in Peru based on statistical crop models and a machine learning algorithm. The models explain 91% of yield variability (55% based on the cross-validation) on the regional scale. On the local scale, weather-related yield variation can be explained in some areas, but to a lower extent. Based on these models, we assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures which increase water availability to protect against negative impacts from dry weather conditions. The results show that a higher water availability of 77mm in the growing season would have regionally different effects, ranging from an increase of 20% to a decrease of 17% in maize yields. This large range underlines the importance of a local assessment of adaptation options. With this example, we illustrate how a statistical approach can support a risk-informed selection of adaptation measures at the local scale as suggested in Peru's NDC implementation plan.

Description: This profile provides an overview of projected climate parameters and related impacts on different sectors in the Sahel region until 2080 under different climate change scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). RCP2.6 represents the low emis-sions scenario in line with the Paris Agreement; RCP6.0 represents a medium to high emissions scenario. Model projections do not account for effects of future socio-economic impacts

Description: Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. With climate change, domestic food production may become more under pressure, further jeopardizing food security. In this study, we focus on the production of maize, sorghum and millet as staple cereal crops in Burkina Faso to assess food availability as one component of food security. Based on a statistical weather-driven crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production 1 month before the harvest. Hindcast results from 1984 to 2018 produce an r2 of 0.95 in case of known harvest areas and an r2 of 0.88 when harvest areas are modelled instead. We compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level. Despite the—on average—sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. We suggest to consider such forecasts as an early warning signal for shortages in domestic staple crop production and encourage a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.

Description: Seasonal yield forecasts are important to support agricultural development programs and can contribute to improved food security in developing countries. Despite their importance, no operational forecasting system on sub-national level is yet in place in Tanzania. We develop a statistical maize yield forecast based on regional yield statistics in Tanzania and climatic predictors, covering the period 2009–2019. We forecast both yield anomalies and absolute yields at the sub-national scale about 6 weeks before the harvest. The forecasted yield anomalies (absolute yields) have a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.72 (0.79) in the out-of-sample cross validation, which corresponds to a median root mean squared error of 0.13 t/ha for absolute yields. In addition, we perform an out-of-sample variable selection and produce completely independent yield forecasts for the harvest year 2019. Our study is potentially applicable to other countries with short time series of yield data and inaccessible or low quality weather data due to the usage of only global climate data and a strict and transparent assessment of the forecasting skill.

Description: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: Zambia has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. To address current and future climate-related risks in the agricultural sector, this study provides a comprehensive climate risk analysis and evaluates suitable adaptation options to promote climate-resilient agricultural intensification in Zambia. Driven by ten global climate models under two climate change scenarios, SSP 1-RCP2.6 and SSP 3-RCP7.0, we used impact models to analyse future trends in climatic conditions and impacts on agriculture. As part of our adaptation analysis, we consider aspects of risk mitigation potential, cost-effectiveness, financing and gender. The results have been complemented and cross-checked by expert and literature-based assessments and two stakeholder workshops. Climate models project a robust trend towards increasing temperatures all over Zambia ranging between 2 °C and 2.7 °C until mid-century, with the south-western regions showing the strongest increase. Projections of mean precipitation indicate high spatial variations within the country. The drought-prone southern and central parts of the country are projected to experience a decrease in precipitation with ongoing climate change. Overall, there is a shift towards more intense climatic conditions both in terms of dry as well as wet conditions. Climate change will have various impacts on agriculture, for example, a decrease in sorghum yields. Mean sorghum yields for the whole country are projected to decrease by 5.8 to 12.2 % by mid-century with spatial and temporal disparities. The decreases are, however, only about half of the projected decrease in maize yields. This confirms that sorghum is indeed a more resilient crop compared to other cereals. Climate change also affects the extent and distribution of suitable areas for crop production in Zambia. Areas suitable for maize and sorghum production will decrease between 28 and 37 % by mid-century and move northwards within Zambia. A case study in the Kafue Catchment and parts of the Zambezi Catchment shows an increase in water demand and a decrease in water availability – leading to an overall reduction in the climate-related irrigation potential in future. The negative climate impacts on agriculture in Zambia underline the need for strong adaptation efforts. The study analyses two adaptation options, which were selected based on stakeholder priorities: Conservation agriculture and early warning systems. Conservation agriculture is a farming system that promotes minimum soil disturbance, maintenance of a permanent soil cover and diversification of plant species. It can buffer climate impacts in the near term and even increase sorghum yields by 25 to 31 % in drought-prone areas in Zambia. It can play a vital role in adapting to increasingly extreme and dry climatic conditions in Zambia in the near future. Early warning systems have a high potential for anticipating climate risks and thus improving food and nutrition security. In our analysis, we focus on a participatory approach for climate and agricultural extension services that integrates climate information and weather forecasts to inform livelihood decisions of farmers – called PICSA (Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture). The results show that the initial investment needed to employ PICSA already becomes economically beneficial after one year with returns increasing in the future. Each USD invested in PICSA generates between 3.6 and 3.8 USD in benefits depending upon the climate scenario considered. This suggests that employing PICSA is a highly cost-effective investment that constitutes an important variable in safeguarding farmers’ long-term livelihood. Generally, a combination of different adaptation options entails additional benefits. Active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory, gender-sensitive approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation options. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: We analyze if exposure to weather risk affects the tenure security of smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania. Drawing on a household panel survey with three waves and high-resolution weather data, our identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in precipitation across time and space. Results from household fixed effects estimations show that exposure to weather risk significantly lowers farmers’ perceived tenure security, while it increases land conflicts. Moreover, weather risk influences the likelihood that farmers acquire land certificates. These findings suggest that both land formalization and land dispute resolution mechanisms are needed to cushion the impacts of weather risk.