ALBERT

Description: Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Description: EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT):Observations of climate variables in the tropical Pacific region are examined for the period 1970-1994. We look at a variety of climate variables, including upper ocean temperatures, surface wind stress, precipitation, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and find evidence for two distinct decadal-scale warmings in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate system during this period.

Description: EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT):Observations show that global average tropospheric temperatures have been rising during the past century, with the most recent portion of record showing a sharp rise since the mid-1970s.

Description: EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT):Variability of precipitation over North America on ENSO and decadal time scales is examined from several decades of precipitation and snow course records.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉 〈jats:list〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Social–ecological systems (SES) exhibit complex cause‐and‐effect relationships. Capturing, interpreting, and responding to signals that indicate changes in ecosystems is key for sustainable management in SES. Breaks in this signal–response chain, when feedbacks are missing, will allow change to continue until a point when abrupt ecological surprises may occur.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉In these situations, societies and local ecosystems can often become uncoupled. In this paper, we demonstrate how the red loop–green loop (RL–GL) concept can be used to uncover missing feedbacks and to better understand past social–ecological dynamics. Reinstating these feedbacks in order to recouple the SES may ultimately create more sustainable systems on local scales.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉The RL–GL concept can uncover missing feedbacks through the characterization of SES dynamics along a spectrum of human resource dependence. Drawing on diverse qualitative and quantitative data sources, we classify SES dynamics throughout the history of Jamaican coral reefs along the RL–GL spectrum. We uncover missing feedbacks in red‐loop and red‐trap scenarios from around the year 600 until now. The Jamaican coral reef SES dynamics have moved between all four dynamic states described in the RL–GL concept: green loop, green trap, red loop and red trap.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉We then propose mechanisms to guide the current unsustainable red traps back to more sustainable green loops, involving mechanisms of seafood trade and ecological monitoring. By gradually moving away from seafood exports, Jamaica may be able to return to green‐loop dynamics between the local society and their locally sourced seafood. We discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of this proposed intervention and give indications of why an export ban may insure against future missing feedbacks and could prolong the sustainability of the Jamaican coral reef ecosystem.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Our approach demonstrates how the RL–GL approach can uncover missing feedbacks in a coral reef SES, a way the concept has not been used before. We advocate for how the RL–GL concept in a feedback setting can be used to synthesize various types of data and to gain an understanding of past, present and future sustainability that can be applied in diverse social–ecological settings.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈/jats:list〉 〈/jats:p〉〈jats:p〉A free 〈jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10092/suppinfo"〉Plain Language Summary〈/jats:ext-link〉 can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉 〈jats:list〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Herbivory is a key process on coral reefs, which, through grazing of algae, can help sustain coral‐dominated states on frequently disturbed reefs and reverse macroalgal regime shifts on degraded ones.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Our understanding of herbivory on reefs is largely founded on feeding observations at small spatial scales, yet the biomass and structure of herbivore populations is more closely linked to processes which can be highly variable across large areas, such as benthic habitat turnover and fishing pressure. Though our understanding of spatiotemporal variation in grazer biomass is well developed, equivalent macroscale approaches to understanding bottom‐up and top‐down controls on herbivory are lacking.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Here, we integrate underwater survey data of fish abundances from four Indo‐Pacific island regions with herbivore feeding observations to estimate grazing rates for two herbivore functions, cropping (which controls turf algae) and scraping (which promotes coral settlement by clearing benthic substrate), for 72 coral reefs. By including a range of reef states, from coral to algal dominance and heavily fished to remote wilderness areas, we evaluate the influences of benthic habitat and fishing on the grazing rates of fish assemblages.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Cropping rates were primarily influenced by benthic condition, with cropping maximized on structurally complex reefs with high substratum availability and low macroalgal cover. Fishing was the primary driver of scraping function, with scraping rates depleted at most reefs relative to remote, unfished reefs, though scraping did increase with substratum availability and structural complexity.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Ultimately, benthic and fishing conditions influenced herbivore functioning through their effect on grazer biomass, which was tightly correlated to grazing rates. For a given level of biomass, we show that grazing rates are higher on reefs dominated by small‐bodied fishes, suggesting that grazing pressure is greatest when grazer size structure is truncated.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Stressors which cause coral declines and clear substrate for turf algae will likely stimulate increases in cropping rates, in both fished and protected areas. In contrast, scraping functions are already impaired at reefs inhabited by people, particularly where structural complexity has collapsed, indicating that restoration of these key processes will require scraper biomass to be rebuilt towards wilderness levels.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈/jats:list〉 〈/jats:p〉〈jats:p〉A free 〈jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13457/suppinfo"〉Plain Language Summary〈/jats:ext-link〉 can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.〈/jats:p〉