Publication Date:
2024-06-30
Description:
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated
with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal
period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2- 4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from
the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model
evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the
mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming
weakens mid- latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation,
leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.
Keywords:
Aragonitic bivalve shells
;
Sea-surface temperature
;
North-Sea
;
Atmospheric circulation
;
PLIOMIP2 simulations
;
Arctic amplification
;
Marine heatwaves
;
Summer drought
;
Wadden Sea
;
Pliocene
Repository Name:
National Museum of Natural History, Netherlands
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Format:
application/pdf
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