ALBERT

Description: The oxygen response in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) to future climate change is poorly understood. We investigate the multidecadal variability in interior oxygen and its association with the subpolar gyre index (a gyre strength proxy) for models and data. During positive phases, persistent strong Labrador Sea (LS) lateral and vertical mixing entrains oxygen-rich water into the interior southern SPNA and vice versa during negative phases. This is indicated by the observed anomalously fresh, cold, and low apparent oxygen utilization, resembling LS water mass during positive phases. We use this relationship to benchmark Earth system models. Under a high CO2 future, the best performing models project a steady decline in SPNA oxygen, driven partly by lower solubility and increases in apparent oxygen utilization. The deoxygenation depends on the sensitivity of the LS mixing to warming. The time of emergence of interior oxygen is projected to be decades earlier than that of temperature and salinity. ©2018. The authors

Description: Observations of the chemical state of the atmosphere typically provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their insufficient temporal and spatial density. One possibility for optimisation of the state estimate is to target the observation of those parameters that have the largest potential of resulting in forecast improvements. In the present work, the technique of singular vector analysis is applied to atmospheric chemical modelling in order to identify the most sensitive chemical compounds during a given time period and prioritise them for measurement. Novel to the current work is the fact that, in the application of singular vector analysis, not only the initial values but also the emissions are considered as target variables for adaptive observation strategies. This specific application of singular vector analysis is studied in the context of a chemistry box model allowing for validation of its new features for two chemical regimes. The time and regime dependence of the ozone (O3) and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formation potential of individual volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is investigated. Results show that the combined sensitivity of O3 and PAN to individual VOCs is strongly dependent on the photochemical scenario and simulation interval used. Particularly the alkanes show increasing sensitivities with increasing simulation length. Classifying the VOCs as being of high, medium, little or negligible importance for the formation of O3 and PAN allows for the identification of those VOCs that may be omitted from measurement. We find that it is possible to omit 6 out of 18 VOCs considered for initial value measurement and 4 out of 12 VOCs considered for emission measurement. The omission of these VOCs is independent of photochemical regime and simulation length. The VOCs selected for measuring account for more than 96% and 90% of the O3 and PAN sensitivity to VOCs, respectively.

Description: Observations of the chemical state of the atmosphere typically provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their insufficient temporal and spatial density. Therefore the measurement configurations need to be optimised to get a best possible state estimate. One possibility to optimise the state estimate is provided by observation targeting of sensitive system states, to identify measurement configurations of best value for forecast improvements. In recent years, numerical weather prediction adapted singular vector analysis with respect to initial values as a novel method to identify sensitive states. In the present work, this technique is transferred from meteorological to chemical forecast. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as controlling variables. More precisely uncertainties in the amplitude of the diurnal profile of emissions are analysed, yielding emission factors as target variables. Singular vector analysis is extended to allow for projected target variables not only at final time but also at initial time. Further, special operators are introduced, which consider the combined influence of groups of chemical species. As a preparation for targeted observation calculations, the concept of adaptive observations is studied with a chemistry box model. For a set of six different scenarios, the VOC versus NOx limitation of the ozone formation is investigated. Results reveal, that the singular vectors are strongly dependent on start time and length of the simulation. As expected, singular vectors with initial values as target variables tend to be more sensitive to initial values, while emission factors as target variables are more sensitive to simulation length. Further, the particular importance of chemical compounds differs strongly between absolute and relative error growth.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is, next to water vapour, considered to be the most important natural greenhouse gas on Earth. Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions such as fossil fuel burning, land-use change or cement production over the past 250 years have given cause for concern that changes in Earth's climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20 000 years. Investigating global carbon cycle pathways and finding suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies has, therefore, become of major concern in many research fields. The oceans have a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and currently take up about 25% of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems and their services. This requires comprehensive investigations, including high-quality ocean carbon measurements on different spatial and temporal scales, the management of data in sophisticated databases, the application of Earth system models to provide future projections for given emission scenarios as well as a global synthesis and outreach to policy makers. In this paper, the current understanding of the ocean as an important carbon sink is reviewed with respect to these topics. Emphasis is placed on the complex interplay of different physical, chemical and biological processes that yield both positive and negative air–sea flux values for natural and anthropogenic CO2 as well as on increased CO2 (uptake) as the regulating force of the radiative warming of the atmosphere and the gradual acidification of the oceans. Major future ocean carbon challenges in the fields of ocean observations, modelling and process research as well as the relevance of other biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gases are discussed.

Description: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is, next to water vapour, considered to be the most important natural greenhouse gas on Earth. Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions such as fossil-fuel burning, land-use change or cement production over the past 250 years have given cause for concern that changes in Earth's climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20 000 years. Investigating global carbon cycle pathways and finding suitable mitigation strategies has, therefore, become of major concern in many research fields. The oceans have a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and currently take up about 25% of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon load will affect its ecosystems and their services. This requires comprehensive investigations, including high-quality ocean carbon measurements on different spatial and temporal scales, the management of data in sophisticated data bases, the application of state-of-the-art Earth system models to provide future projections for given emission scenarios as well as a global synthesis and outreach to policy makers. In this paper, the current understanding of the ocean as an important carbon sink is reviewed with respect to these topics. Emphasis is placed on the complex interplay of different physical, chemical, and biological processes that yield both positive and negative air–sea flux values for natural and anthropogenic CO2 as well as on increased CO2 (uptake) as the regulating force of the radiative warming of the atmosphere and the gradual acidification of the oceans. Major future ocean carbon challenges in the fields of ocean observations, modelling, and process research as well as the relevance of other biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gases are discussed.

Description: Measurements of the large dimensional chemical state of the atmosphere provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their typically insufficient temporal and spatial density. In order to optimize the measurement configurations despite those limitations, the present work describes the identification of sensitive states of the chemical system as optimal target areas for adaptive observations. For this purpose, the technique of singular vector analysis (SVA), which has been proved effective for targeted observations in numerical weather predication, is implemented into the chemical transport model EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution and Dispersion – Inverse Model) yielding the EURAD-IM-SVA. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as critical simulation controlling targeting variables. For both variants, singular vectors are applied to determine the optimal placement for observations and moreover to quantify which chemical compounds have to be observed with preference. Based on measurements of the airship based ZEPTER-2 campaign, the EURAD-IM-SVA has been evaluated by conducting a comprehensive set of model runs involving different initial states and simulation lengths. Since the considered cases are restricted in terms of considered chemical compounds and selected areas, they allow for a retracing of the results and a confirmation of their correctness. Our analysis shows that the optimal placement for observations of chemical species is not entirely determined by mere transport and mixing processes. Rather, a combination of initial chemical concentrations, chemical conversions, and meteorological processes determine the influence of chemical compounds and regions. We furthermore demonstrate that the optimal placement of observations of emission strengths is highly dependent on the location of emission sources and that the benefit of including emissions as target variables outperforms the value of initial value optimisation with growing simulation length. The obtained results confirm the benefit of considering both initial values and emission strengths as target variables and of applying the EURAD-IM-SVA for measurement decision guidance with respect to chemical compounds.

Description: Measurements of the large-dimensional chemical state of the atmosphere provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their typically insufficient temporal and spatial density. In order to optimize the measurement configurations despite those limitations, the present work describes the identification of sensitive states of the chemical system as optimal target areas for adaptive observations. For this purpose, the technique of singular vector analysis (SVA), which has proven effective for targeted observations in numerical weather prediction, is implemented in the EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution and Dispersion – Inverse Model) chemical transport model, yielding the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as critical simulation controlling targeting variables. For both variants, singular vectors are applied to determine the optimal placement for observations and moreover to quantify which chemical compounds have to be observed with preference. Based on measurements of the airship based ZEPTER-2 campaign, the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0 has been evaluated by conducting a comprehensive set of model runs involving different initial states and simulation lengths. For the sake of brevity, we concentrate our attention on the following chemical compounds, O3, NO, NO2, HCHO, CO, HONO, and OH, and focus on their influence on selected O3 profiles. Our analysis shows that the optimal placement for observations of chemical species is not entirely determined by mere transport and mixing processes. Rather, a combination of initial chemical concentrations, chemical conversions, and meteorological processes determines the influence of chemical compounds and regions. We furthermore demonstrate that the optimal placement of observations of emission strengths is highly dependent on the location of emission sources and that the benefit of including emissions as target variables outperforms the value of initial value optimization with growing simulation length. The obtained results confirm the benefit of considering both initial values and emission strengths as target variables and of applying the EURAD-IM-SVA v1.0 for measurement decision guidance with respect to chemical compounds.

Description: As part of the second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes project (RECCAP2), we present an assessment of the carbon cycle of the Atlantic Ocean, including the Mediterranean Sea, between 1985 and 2018 using global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and estimates based on surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure (pCO2 products) and ocean interior dissolved inorganic carbon observations. Estimates of the basin-wide long-term mean net annual CO2 uptake based on GOBMs and pCO2 products are in reasonable agreement (−0.47 ± 0.15 PgC yr−1 and −0.36 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1, respectively), with the higher uptake in the GOBM-based estimates likely being a consequence of a deficit in the representation of natural outgassing of land derived carbon. In the GOBMs, the CO2 uptake increases with time at rates close to what one would expect from the atmospheric CO2 increase, but pCO2 products estimate a rate twice as fast. The largest disagreement in the CO2 flux between GOBMs and pCO2 products is found north of 50°N, coinciding with the largest disagreement in the seasonal cycle and interannual variability. The mean accumulation rate of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) over 1994–2007 in the Atlantic Ocean is 0.52 ± 0.11 PgC yr−1 according to the GOBMs, 28% ± 20% lower than that derived from observations. Around 70% of this Cant is taken up from the atmosphere, while the remainder is imported from the Southern Ocean through lateral transport.