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  • 1
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    Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds (2020)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: Global Water Models (GWMs), which include Global Hydrological, Land Surface, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, present valuable tools for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the data scarce high latitudes. Here we performed a systematic model performance evaluation in six major Pan-Arctic watersheds for different hydrological indicators (monthly and seasonal discharge, extremes, trends (or lack of), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) via a novel Aggregated Performance Index (API) that is based on commonly used statistical evaluation metrics. The machine learning Boruta feature selection algorithm was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the API attributes. Our results show that the majority of the nine GWMs included in the study exhibit considerable difficulties in realistically representing Pan-Arctic hydrological processes. Average APIdischarge (monthly and seasonal discharge) over nine GWMs is 〉 50% only in the Kolyma basin (55%), as low as 30% in the Yukon basin and averaged over all watersheds APIdischarge is 43%. WATERGAP2 and MATSIRO present the highest (APIdischarge 〉 55%) while ORCHIDEE and JULES-W1 the lowest (APIdischarge ≤ 25%) performing GWMs over all watersheds. For the high and low flows, average APIextreme is 35% and 26%, respectively, and over six GWMs APISWE is 57%. The Boruta algorithm suggests that using different observation-based climate data sets does not influence the total score of the APIs in all watersheds. Ultimately, only satisfactory to good performing GWMs that effectively represent cold-region hydrological processes (including snow-related processes, permafrost) should be included in multi-model climate change impact assessments in Pan-Arctic watersheds.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; Global Water Models ; Model performance ; Model evaluation ; Arctic watersheds ; Boruta feature selection
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
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    Global biomass density of potential wild large grazers for present-day and the last glacial maximum, simulated by a DGVM model (2018)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Viovy, Nicolas; Penuelas, Josep; Zimov, Sergey A (2018): The large mean body size of mammalian herbivores explains the productivity paradox during the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature Ecology & Evolution, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0481-y
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: Large herbivores are a major agent in ecosystems, influencing vegetation structure and carbon and nutrient flows. Yet most of the current global dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) lack explicit representation of large herbivores. Here we incorporated a grazing module in the ORCHIDEE-MICT DGVM based on physiological and demographic equations for wild large grazers, taking into account the feedbacks of large grazers on vegetation. The model was applied globally for present-day and the last glacial maximum (LGM). Three NetCDF files are included, corresponding to the model results for three periods: present-day (1960-2009 average), pre-industrial (1860-1899 average), and the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka before present). Variables include the modeled potential grazer biomass/population density, along with the directly relevant outputs: vegetation distribution (i.e. fractional coverage of the plant functional types), and gross and net primary productivity. Detailed model descriptions and the simulation setup can be found in: Zhu et al. (2018).
    Keywords: File content; File format; File name; File size; Uniform resource locator/link to file
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 15 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 3
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    Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Lun, Fei; Liu, Junguo; Ciais, Philippe; Nesme, Thomas; Chang, Jinfeng; Wang, Rong; Goll, Daniel S; Sardans, Jordi; Penuelas, Josep; Obersteiner, Michael (2017): Global and regional phosphorus budgets in agricultural systems and their implications for phosphorus-use efficiency. Earth System Science Data Discussions, 1-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-41
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: The application of phosphorus (P) fertilizer to agricultural soils increased by 3.2 % annually from 2002 to 2010. We quantified in detail the P inputs and outputs of cropland and pasture, and the P fluxes through human and livestock consumers of agricultural products, at global, regional, and national scales from 2002 to 2010. Globally, half of the total P input (21.3 Tg P yr-1) into agricultural systems accumulated in agricultural soils during this period, with the rest lost to bodies of water through complex flows. Global P accumulation in agricultural soil increased from 2002 to 2010, despite decreases in 2008 and 2009, and the P accumulation occurred primarily in cropland. Despite the global increase of soil P, 32 % of the world's cropland and 43 % of the pasture had soil P deficits. Increasing soil P deficits were found for African cropland, versus increasing P accumulation in Eastern Asia. European and North American pasture had a soil P deficit because continuous removal of biomass P by grazing exceeded P inputs. International trade played a significant role in P redistribution among countries through the flows of P in fertilizer and food among countries. Based on country-scale budgets and trends we propose policy options to potentially mitigate regional P imbalances in agricultural soils, particularly by optimizing the use of phosphate fertilizer and recycling of waste P. The trend of increasing consumption of livestock products will require more P inputs to the agricultural system, implying a low P-use efficiency aggravating the P stocks scarcity in the future. The global and regional phosphorus budgets and their PUEs in agricultural systems is publicly available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.875296.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet, 401.3 kBytes
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 4
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    Half-degree gridded manure and fertilizer nitrogen inputs in global grassland systems during 1860-2016 (2018)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Dangal, R S Shree; Chen, Jian; Chang, Jinfeng; Lu, Yonglong; Skiba, Ute Maria; Zhang, Bowen (2019): Increased nitrogen enrichment and shifted patterns in the world's grassland: 1860-2014. Earth System Science Data, 11(1), 175-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-175-2019
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: Production and application to soils of manure excreta from livestock production significantly perturb the global nutrient balance and result in significant greenhouse gas emissions that warm the earth's climate. Despite much attention paid to synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and manure N applications to croplands, spatially-explicit, continuous time-series datasets of manure and fertilizer N inputs on pastures and rangelands are lacking. We developed three global gridded datasets at a resolution of 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree for the period 1860-2016 (i.e., annual manure N deposition (by grazing animals) rate, synthetic N fertilizer and N manure application rates), by combining annual and 5-arc minute spatial data on pastures and rangelands with country-level statistics on livestock manure, mineral and chemical fertilizers, and land use information for cropland and permanent meadows and pastures from the Food and Agricultural Organization database (FAOSTAT). Based on the new data products, we estimated that total N inputs, sum of manure N deposition, manure and fertilizer N application to pastures and rangelands increased globally from 15 to 101 Tg N yr-1 during 1860-2016. In particular during the period 2000-2016, livestock manure N deposition accounted for 83% of the total N inputs, whereas manure and fertilizer N application accounted 9% and 8%, respectively. At the regional scale, hotspots of manure N deposition remained largely similar during the period 1860-2016 (i.e., southern Asia, Africa, and South America), however hotspots of manure and fertilizer N application shifted from Europe to southern Asia in the early 21st century. The new three global datasets contribute to fill previous data gaps of global and regional N inputs in pastures and rangelands, improving the ability of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models to investigate the global impacts of N enrichment due to agriculture, in terms of associated greenhouse gas emissions and environmental sustainability issues.
    Keywords: File format; File name; File size; Uniform resource locator/link to file
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 12 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 5
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    HaNi: A Historical dataset of Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs to the terrestrial biosphere (1860-2019) (2022)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-12
    Description: Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs to the biosphere have disrupted the global nitrogen cycle. To better quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic N enrichments, assess their impacts on the biogeochemical cycles of the planet and other living organisms, and improve nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) for sustainable development, we develop a comprehensive and synthetic dataset for anthropogenic N inputs to the terrestrial biosphere. This Harmonized Anthropogenic N Inputs (HaNi) dataset takes advantage of different data sources in a spatiotemporally consistent way to generate a set of high-resolution gridded N input products from the preindustrial to present (1860-2019). The HaNi dataset includes annual rates of synthetic N fertilizer, manure application/deposition, and atmospheric N deposition in cropland, pasture, and rangeland at 5-arcmin. Specifically, the N inputs are categorized, according to the N forms and the land use, as 1) NH4-N fertilizer applied to cropland, 2) NO3-N fertilizer applied to cropland, 3) NH4-N fertilizer applied to pasture, 4) NO3-N fertilizer applied to pasture, 5) manure N application on cropland, 6) manure N application on pasture, 7) manure N deposition on pasture, 8) manure N deposition on rangeland, 9) NHx-N deposition, and 10) NOy-N deposition. The total anthropogenic N (TN) inputs to global terrestrial ecosystems increased from 29.05 Tg N yr-1 in the 1860s to 267.23 Tg N yr-1 in the 2010s, with the dominant N source changing from atmospheric N deposition (before the 1900s) to manure N (the 1910s-2000s), and to synthetic fertilizer in the 2010s. The proportion of synthetic NH4-N fertilizer increased from 64% in the 1960s to 90% in the 2010s, while synthetic NO3-N fertilizer decreased from 36% in the 1960s to 10% in the 2010s. Hotspots of TN inputs shifted from Europe and North America to East and South Asia during the 1960s-2010s. Such spatial and temporal dynamics captured by the HaNi dataset are expected to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of the coupled human-earth system and address a variety of social welfare issues, such as climate-biosphere feedback, air pollution, water quality, and biodiversity.
    Keywords: atmospheric deposition; Binary Object; Crop; fertilizer; File content; manure; nitrogen; Nitrogen Model Inter-Comparison Project; NMIP; pastures; rangeland
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 20 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 6
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    Reduced winter off-road tundra travel under climate change (2019)
    American Geophysical Union
    In:  EPIC3AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, CA, 2019-12-09-2019-12-13USA, American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-17
    Description: During the last decade the Arctic has experienced increasing human development while many native communities continue to live a subsistence lifestyle. Off-road winter tundra travel for resource exploration is most cost effective and least environmentally damaging during winter when the tundra is frozen and snow covered. Climate warming, which is occurring at an amplified rate in the Arctic, likely changes the period when access to the off-road tundra travel is possible. There currently exists, however, large uncertainty as to how climate change will impact the low-cost winter travel access across the tundra. Here we defined safe tundra access when soil temperatures are below a soil type dependent freezing temperature and snow cover is at least 20 cm. Our analysis is based on the simulated soil temperatures and snow depths of Land Surface Models (LSMs) contributing to “The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project” (ISIMIP). ISIMIP simulations are based on a common protocol, the same input data, the same spatial (0.5°) and temporal resolution (daily modeling output), and span over the period 1861-2100. The LSMs are forced by four different bias-corrected global circulation models (IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5, HadGEM2-ES) and three different future conditions (represented via representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, 8.5). The simulation results of our model ensemble (60 model combinations) show consistent permafrost warming and changing snow cover patterns at 60°N. Annual off-road tundra travel is considerably reduced (〉50%) under future climate change scenarios, especially under the RCP8.5. The main reduction can be observed in the spring and autumn (〉30%). The results of the multi-model ensemble differ in magnitude, however, their overall trend is consistent. Our results suggest a high vulnerability and substantial changes to the (subsistence) livelihoods of native communities and increasing costs for off-road resource exploration.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 7
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    Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios (2021)
    IOP Publishing Ltd
    In:  EPIC3Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing Ltd, 16(2), pp. 024049-024049, ISSN: 1748-9326
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
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    The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-06-01
    Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N2O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N2O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N2O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N2O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N2O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 9
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    Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation (2020)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-01
    Description: To improve the understanding of trends in extreme flows related to flood events at the global scale, historical and future changes of annual maxima of 7 d streamflow are investigated, using a comprehensive streamflow archive and six global hydrological models. The models' capacity to characterise trends in annual maxima of 7 d streamflow at the continental and global scale is evaluated across 3666 river gauge locations over the period from 1971 to 2005, focusing on four aspects of trends: (i) mean, (ii) standard deviation, (iii) percentage of locations showing significant trends and (iv) spatial pattern. Compared to observed trends, simulated trends driven by observed climate forcing generally have a higher mean, lower spread and a similar percentage of locations showing significant trends. Models show a low to moderate capacity to simulate spatial patterns of historical trends, with approximately only from 12 % to 25 % of the spatial variance of observed trends across all gauge stations accounted for by the simulations. Interestingly, there are statistically significant differences between trends simulated by global hydrological models (GHMs) forced with observational climate and by those forced by bias-corrected climate model output during the historical period, suggesting the important role of the stochastic natural (decadal, inter-annual) climate variability. Significant differences were found in simulated flood trends when averaged only at gauged locations compared to those averaged across all simulated grid cells, highlighting the potential for bias toward well-observed regions in our understanding of changes in floods. Future climate projections (simulated under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios) suggest a potentially high level of change in individual regions, with up to 35 % of cells showing a statistically significant trend (increase or decrease; at 10 % significance level) and greater changes indicated for the higher concentration pathway. Importantly, the observed streamflow database under-samples the percentage of locations consistently projected with increased flood hazards under the RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenario by more than an order of magnitude (0.9 % compared to 11.7 %). This finding indicates a highly uncertain future for both flood-prone communities and decision makers in the context of climate change.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 10
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    Satellite passive microwaves reveal recent climate-induced carbon losses in African drylands (2018)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-04-09
    Electronic ISSN: 2397-334X
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Springer Nature
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