ALBERT

Description: Spatial and temporal characteristics of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) on the east side of the Western Ghat mountain range over India's west coast and processes leading to the formation of the jet are discussed. The boundary-layer jet has a regional scale extent, as revealed by high-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model simulations, and contributes to the formation of ‘atmospheric streams’ of water vapor over the selected land regions. Simulations indicate that the formation of LLJ is mainly attributed to the baroclinicity of the valley atmosphere due to the gently rolling terrain, which is assisted by the persistence of an unstable residual layer above the developing stable boundary layer in the valley and cooling over the slopes. Prior to the formation of LLJ, the boundary layer is dominated by deep roll circulations. The LLJ followed a gust front zone associated with a mountain wave. The low-level flow below the jet is decoupled from the upper-level flow as a result of strong vorticity below the jet and suppression of turbulence at the jet core. A conceptual model for the boundary layer interactions, dynamics of the mountain wave, LLJ, etc. are proposed for Western Ghat region. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: ABSTRACT Role of the cloud parameterization scheme and critical relative humidity (RHcrit) for large-scale precipitation is examined for simulating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The major biases of the model simulations namely dry bias over the major continents, cold tropospheric temperature (TT) bias and cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias are related to biases in distribution of clouds. This study evaluates the role of variable RHcrit to get better simulation of high level clouds and reduce TT bias and cloud microphysical parameterization to improve the meridional gradient of TT towards achieving better simulation of south Asian monsoon precipitation. Sensitivity experiments of CFSv2 with the modified RHcrit and cloud microphysical scheme compared to the control simulation show that while the RHcrit leads to some development of the cloud distribution and contributes to some progress of the dry bias over India, the cloud microphysics changes lead to a significant improvement of the cloud simulations. Particularly, revised cloud microphysics scheme coupled with modified RHcrit results in a much improved global distribution of cloud fraction with zonal mean cloud fraction being close to observation. This leads to significant improvement in the meridional gradient of TT leading to rainfall over south Asian monsoon region. The dry bias is not only reduced over the Indian subcontinent but also over other regions of global tropics such as the central Africa and the northern South America. The annual cycle of all India rainfall is in good agreement with observation not only in amount but also in the onset and withdrawal phases. Thus, modifications in the cloud microphysical parameterization scheme in CFSv2 have played a vital role in simulation of the ISM in particular. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate the betterment of the mean monsoon and may lead to help improve monsoon forecasts.

Description: Article The response of the South Asian summer monsoon to climate change remains uncertain. Here, the authors combine observational datasets and model simulations and show that a warming Indian Ocean and weakened land-sea thermal gradient lead to significant rainfall weakening over the central Indian subcontinent. Nature Communications doi: 10.1038/ncomms8423 Authors: Mathew Koll Roxy, Kapoor Ritika, Pascal Terray, Raghu Murtugudde, Karumuri Ashok, B. N. Goswami

Description: In situ aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties and aerosol during the 1st phase of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment (CAIPEEX-I) over the Indian sub-continent provided initial opportunities to investigate the dispersion effect and its implications for estimating aerosol indirect effects in continental cumuli. In contrast to earlier studies on continental shallow cumuli, it is found that not only the cloud droplet number concentration but also the relative dispersion increases with the aerosol number concentration in continental cumuli. The first aerosol indirect effect estimated from the relative changes in droplet concentration and effective radius with aerosol number concentration are 0.13 and 0.07, respectively. In-depth analysis reveals that the dispersion effect could offset the cooling by enhanced droplet concentration by 39% in these continental cumuli. Adiabaticity analysis revealed aerosol indirect effect is lesser in subadiabatic clouds possibly due to inhomogeneous mixing processes. This study shows that adequate representation of the dispersion effect would help in accurately estimating the cloud albedo effect for continental cumuli and can reduce uncertainty in aerosol indirect effect estimates.

Description: ABSTRACT This study analyses skill of an extended range prediction system to forecast Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) 3–4 pentads in advance. A series of 45-d forecast integrations starting from 1 May to 29 September at 5-d interval for 7 years from 2001 to 2007 are performed with an ensemble prediction system (EPS) in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 1 (CFSV1) model. The sensitivity experiments with different amount of perturbation suggest that full tendency perturbation experiment on all basic variables including humidity at all vertical level shows higher dispersion among forecast than other experiments. Spread–error relationship shows that the present EPS system is under-dispersive. The lower bound of predictability is about 10–12 d and upper bound of predictability is found to be 20–25 d for zonal wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of precipitation (500 hPa geopotential height) reveals that the predictability limit is about 15(18) d over Indian monsoon region. The monsoon zone area averaged precipitation forecasts averaged over 5-d period (pentads) up to 4 pentad lead time are also evaluated and compared with observation. The anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) reaches zero after pentad 3 (pentad 5) lead for precipitation (dynamical variables). A probabilistic approach is developed from the EPS for extended range forecast applications. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three categories of precipitation shows that the prediction skill for active and break is slightly higher compared to that of normal category and skillful probabilistic forecasts can be generated for precipitation even beyond pentad 4 lead. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Pre-monsoon aerosols in the northern part of India may play an important role in the advancement of the monsoon. This study investigates the properties of aerosols and their spatial and vertical distribution near the foothills of the Himalayas using data from an instrumented aircraft during the Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX), 2009. CAIPEEX was conducted over five days during May 2009 in the northern part of India near the foothills of the Himalayas. On all the flight days thick haze was observed, with elevated aerosol layers up to 4 km with varying concentrations. The sources are identified as being from local anthropogenic activities such as biomass burning, as inferred from MODIS fire maps and dust from local as well as from long-range transport, as suggested by trajectory analysis. The aerosol size distributions depict the increases in both fine and coarse mode aerosols in polluted layers. This indicates that aerosols over this region are well mixed and the vertical distribution is a mixture of both biomass burning and dust aerosols at different altitudes, as also observed by CALIPSO and inferred from Mie calculations. Clouds observed above the elevated aerosol layers showed higher droplet concentrations (200–1400 cm −3 ) with small effective radii (3.5 to 〈 6 µm). Ice phase observed above 6 km at temperatures lower than −14°C might be due to the presence of dust aerosol acting as potential ice nuclei. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and microphysics of clouds at various altitudes were conducted over India during CAIPEEX (Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment) phase I and II in 2009 and 2010 respectively. As expected, greater CCN concentrations gave rise to clouds with smaller drops with greater number concentrations (Nc). The cloud drop effective radius (re) increased with distance above cloud base (D). Warm rain became detectable, i.e., rain water content 〉0.01 g/Kg, at the tops of growing convective clouds when re exceeded 12 μm. The re is determined by the number of activated CCN, Nad, and D. The Nad can be approximated by the maximum measured values of Nc. Higher Nc resulted in greater D for reaching the re threshold for onset of warm rain, re*, denoted as D*. In extreme cases of highly polluted and moist air that formed the monsoon clouds over the Indo-Gangetic plains, D* exceeded 6 km, well above the 0°C isotherm level. The precipitation particles were initiated there as supercooled raindrops at a temperature of −8°C. Giant CCN reduced re* and D*, by initiating raindrops closer to cloud base. This effect was found mainly in dusty air masses over the Arabian Sea. Besides, the aerosol effect on D*, D* was found to decrease with increase in cloud water path.

Description: Scale interactions associated with small scale (

Description: The relative success of the Community Atmosphere Model with superparameterized convection (SP-CAM) in simulating the space-time characteristics of the Madden Julian Oscillation encourages us to examine its simulation of the Indian summer monsoon and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). While the model simulates the onset and withdrawal of the Indian monsoon realistically, it has a significant wet bias in boreal summer precipitation over the Asian monsoon region. The space-time characteristics of the MISOs simulated by the SP-CAM are examined in detail and compared with those of the observed MISO to gain insight into the model's bias in simulating the seasonal mean. During northern summer, the model simulates a 20 day mode and a 60 day mode in place of the observed 15 and 45 day modes, respectively. The simulated 20 day mode appears to have no observed analog with a baroclinic vertical structure and strong northward propagation over Indian longitudes. The simulated 60 day mode seems to be a lower-frequency version of the observed 45 day mode with relatively slower northward propagation. The model's underestimation of light rain events and overestimation of heavy rain events are shown to be responsible for the wet bias of the model. More frequent occurrence of heavy rain events in the model is, in turn, related to the vertical structure of the higher-frequency modes. Northward propagation of the simulated 20 day mode is associated with a strong cyclonic vorticity at low levels north of the heating maximum associated with a smaller meridional scale of the simulated mode. The simulated vertical structure of heating indicates a strong maximum in the upper troposphere between 200 and 300 hPa. Such a heating profile seems to generate a higher-order baroclinic mode response with smaller meridional structure, stronger low-level cyclonic vorticity, enhanced low-level moisture convergence, and higher precipitation. Therefore, the vertical structure of heating simulated by the cloud-resolving model within SP-CAM may hold the key for improving the precipitation bias in the model.

Description: We investigate aerosol and cloud forcing on the surface energy balance over selected regions in India. Four regions were selected with different surface characteristics and have considerable differences in the long-term trends and seasonal distribution of clouds and aerosols. These regions are described as (1) northern semiarid, (2) humid subtropical, (3) populated central peninsula, and (4) northeast monsoon impacted. Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis version 2 (CFSR) data are used in this study. An intercomparison of cloud fractions from both data sets shows that CFSR systematically underestimates high-cloud fraction during premonsoon and monsoon seasons. However, there are fewer low-cloud fraction biases. The positive temporal trend over 31 years (1979–2009) from MERRA in high clouds is greater than that of low clouds. This is due to positive anomalies in the cloud ice and supercooled liquid water content in MERRA. Biases in the radiative fluxes and surface fluxes show a strong relationship (correlations exceeding 0.8) with cloud fraction biases, more so for the high clouds. During the premonsoon season, aerosol forcing causes a change in surface shortwave radiation of −24.5, −25, −19, and −16 W m−2 over regions 1 −4, respectively. The corresponding longwave radiation decrease is −9.8, −6.8, −4.5, and −1.9 W m−2 over these same regions, respectively. The maximum surface shortwave reduction due to clouds, which is observed during the monsoon season, is −86, −113, −101, and −97 W m−2 for these same regions, respectively. A decreasing trend in the boundary layer height is noticed both in MERRA and CFSR. The variation in the Bowen ratio and its relation to aerosol and cloud effect anomalies are also discussed.