Publikationsdatum:
2012-01-01
Beschreibung:
We consider implications of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test results with regard to earthquake forecasting. Prospective forecasts were solicited forM≥4.95earthquakes in California during the period 2006–2010. During this period 31 earthquakes occurred in the test region withM≥4.95. We consider five forecasts that were submitted for the test. We compare the forecasts utilizing forecast verification methodology developed in the atmospheric sciences, specifically for tornadoes. We utilize a “skill score” based on the forecast scoresλfiof occurrence of the test earthquakes. A perfect forecast would haveλfi=1, and a random (no skill) forecast would haveλfi=2.86×10-3. The best forecasts (largest value ofλfi) for the 31 earthquakes had values ofλfi=1.24×10-1toλfi=5.49×10-3. The best mean forecast for all earthquakes wasλ̅f=2.84×10-2. The best forecasts are about an order of magnitude better than random forecasts. We discuss the earthquakes, the forecasts, and alternative methods of evaluation of the performance of RELM forecasts. We also discuss the relative merits of alarm-based versus probability-based forecasts.
Print ISSN:
1687-885X
Digitale ISSN:
1687-8868
Thema:
Geologie und Paläontologie
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