ALBERT

Description: In this paper we describe fundamental properties of an 'off-line' three-dimensional transport model, that is, a model which uses prescribed rather than predicted winds. The model is currently used primarily for studying problems of the middle atmosphere because we have not (yet) incorporated a formulation for the convective transport of trace species, a prerequisite for many tropospheric problems. The off-line model is simpler and less expensive than a model which predicts the wind and mass evolution (an 'on-line' model), but it is more complex than the two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged transport models often used in the study of chemistry and transport in the middle atmosphere. It thus serves as a model of intermediate complexity and can fill a useful niche for the study of transport and chemistry. We compare simulations of four tracers, released in the lower stratosphere, in both the on- and off-line models to document the difference resulting from differences in modeling the same problem with this intermediate model. These differences identify the price to be paid in going to a cheaper and simpler calculation. The off-line model transports a tracer in three dimensions. For this reason, it requires fewer approximations than 2-D transport model, which must parameterize the effects of mixing by transient and zonally asymmetric wind features. We compare simulations of the off-line model with simulations of a 2-D model for two problems. First, we compare 2-D and three-dimensional (3-D) models by simulating the emission of an NO(x)-like tracer by a fleet of high-speed aircraft. The off-line model is then used to simulate the transport of C-14 and to contrast its simulation properties to that of the host of 2-D models which participated in an identical simulation in a recent NASA model intercomparison. The off-line model is shown to be somewhat sensitive to the sampling strategy for off-line winds. Simulations with daily averaged winds are in very good qualitative agreement but are less diffusive than when driven with instantaneous winds sampled at half-hour intervals. Simulations with the off-line and 2-D models are quite similar in the middle and upper stratosphere but behave quite differently in the lower stratosphere, where the 3-D model has a substantially more vigorous circulation. The off-line model is quite realistic in its simulation of C-14. While there are still systematic differences between the 3-D calculation and the observations, the differences seem to be substantially reduced when compared with the body of 2-D simulations documented in the above mentioned NASA intercomparison, particularly at 31 deg N.

Description: The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Description: Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Description: The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Description: A new component of NASA's Explorer Program has been initiated in order to provide research opportunities characterized by small, quick-turn-around, and frequent space missions. Objectives include the launching of one or two payloads per year, depending on mission cost and availability of funds and launch vehicles. The four missions chosen from the proposals solicited by the Small Explorer Announcement Opportunity are discussed in detail. These include the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) designed to carry out energetic particle studies of outstanding questions in the fields of space plasma, solar, heliospheric, cosmic ray, and middle atmospheric physics; the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS), which will conduct both pointed and survey observations of dense galactic molecular clouds; the Fast Auroral Snapshot Explorer (FAST); and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS).

Description: The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO2 released by aircraft is increased by about 10-20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NOx from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H2O and HNO3 by the aircraft engines.

Description: The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM2) contains a semi-Lagrangian tracer transport scheme for the purpose of advecting water vapor and for including chemistry in the climate model. One way to diagnose the CCM2 transport is to simulate CFCl3 in the CCM2 since it has a well-known industry-based source distribution and a photochemical sink and to compare the model results to Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment ALE/GAGE observations around the globe. In this paper we focus on this comparison and discuss the synoptic scale issues of tracer transport where appropriate. We compare the model and observations on both 12-hour and monthly timescales. The higher-frequency events allow us to diagnose the synoptic scale transport in the CCM2 associated with the observational sites and to determine uncertainties in our high-resolution source distribution. We find that the CCM2 does simulate many of the key features such as pollution events and some seasonal transports, but there are still some dynamical features of tracer transport such as the storm track dynamics and cross-equatorial flow that merit further study in both the model and the real atmosphere.

Description: We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from 0.58 to 0.02 W m(sup2), with a mean of 0.27 W m(sup2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of 0.35 W m(sup2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results