Publication Date:
2019-07-13
Description:
Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face. It was responsible for half of all hurricane related mortalities in the United States from 1963 to 2012, far more than any other factor. Coastal extreme water levels are increasing globally, mainly driven by rises in mean sea level. Sea level rise is also causing rapid increases in the annual number of shallow nuisance floods for low-lying neighborhoods. The objectives of this chapter are to review the latest knowledge on New York City flood risk from storms and tides, and to evaluate how climate change will affect this risk between now and the end of the century. Methods used by NPCC (2015) for assessing storm-driven extreme floods are generally repeated here, including the use of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2013) baseline flood hazards (e.g., the 100-year flood(sup a)) and the methods for adding sea level rise and mapping the resulting hazard. New advancements include an innovative analysis of monthly tidal flooding based on a dynamic model, a broadened set of sea level rise scenarios supplemented with the Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) scenario (see Chapter 3), and sensitivity analyses that show how differing methods would affect our results. Wind is a primary factor for coastal storm surge, and a brief review is given in Appendix 4.A, with the latest scientific knowledge on what drives extreme wind events in the New York City area and how they may change in the future.
Keywords:
Meteorology and Climatology
Type:
GSFC-E-DAA-TN66878
,
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences (ISSN 0077-8923) (e-ISSN 1749-6632); 1439; 1; 95-114
Format:
text
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