ALBERT

Description: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme events characterized by abnormally high sea surface temperatures, and they have significant impacts on marine ecosystems and human society. The rapid and accurate forecasting of MHWs is crucial for preventing and responding to the impacts they can lead to. However, the research on relevant forecasting methods is limited, and a dedicated forecasting system specifically tailored for the South China Sea (SCS) region has yet to be reported. This study proposes a novel forecasting system utilizing U-Net and ConvLSTM models to predict MHWs in the SCS. Specifically, the U-Net model is used to forecast the intensity of MHWs, while the ConvLSTM model is employed to predict the probability of their occurrence. The indication of an MHW relies on both the intensity forecasted by the U-Net model exceeding threshold T and the occurrence probability predicted by the ConvLSTM model surpassing threshold P. Incorporating sensitivity analysis, optimal thresholds for T are determined as 0.9 °C, 0.8 °C, 1.0 °C, and 1.0 °C for 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day forecast lead times, respectively. Similarly, optimal thresholds for P are identified as 0.29, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.28. Employing these thresholds yields the highest forecast accuracy rates of 0.92, 0.89, 0.88, and 0.87 for the corresponding forecast lead times. This innovative approach gives better predictions of MHWs in the SCS, providing invaluable reference information for marine management authorities to make well-informed decisions and issue timely MHW warnings.

Description: The North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent area (STCC) is high in mesoscale eddy activities. According to the rotation direction of the eddy flow field and the sign of temperature anomaly within the eddy, they can be divided into four categories: cyclonic cold-core eddy (CCE), anticyclonic warm-core eddy (AWE), cyclonic warm-core eddy (CWE) and anticyclonic cold-core eddy (ACE). CCE and AWE are called normal eddies, and CWE and ACE are named abnormal eddies. Based on the OFES data and vector geometry automatic detection method, we find that at the sea surface, the maximum monthly number of the CCE, AWE, CWE, and ACE occurs in December (765.70 ± 52.05), January (688.20 ± 82.53), August (373.40 ± 43.09) and August (533.00 ± 56.92), respectively. The number of normal eddies is more in winter and spring, and less in summer and autumn, while abnormal eddies have the opposite distribution. The maximum rotation velocity of the four types of eddies appears in June (11.71 ± 0.75 cm/s), June (12.24 ± 0.86 cm/s), May (10.63 ± 0.99 cm/s) and June (9.97 ± 0.91 cm/s), which is fast in winter and spring. The moving speed of the four types of eddies is almost similar (about 10 ~ 11 cm/s). The amplitude of normal and abnormal eddies is both high in summer and autumn, and low in winter and spring, with larger amplitudes in normal than abnormal eddies. The eccentricity (defined as the eccentricity of the ellipse obtained by fitting the eddy boundary) of the four types of eddies is also close to each other, and their variation ranges from 0.7 to 0.8, with no apparent seasonal variation. The vertical penetration depth, which has no significant seasonal difference, is 675.13 ± 67.50 m in cyclonic eddies (CCE and CWE), which is deeper than that 622.32 ± 81.85 m in anticyclonic eddies (ACE and AWE). In addition, increasing the defined temperature threshold for abnormal eddies can significantly reduce their numbers but does not change their seasonal variation trend.

Description: This study investigates the historical characteristics and future trends of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. During the historical period from 1982 to 2014, the WNP region experiences an average MHW frequency of 0.89 ± 0.18 count/year. These events have an average duration of 8.64 ± 1.39 days/count. Annually, the cumulative MHW days amount to 7.76 ± 2.23 days, with an accumulated intensity of 15.73 ± 6.43 °C days. The maximum intensity recorded during this period reaches 2.04 ± 0.54 °C, while the average intensity stands at 1.74 ± 0.48 °C/count. In the evaluation of 14 CMIP6 models, five optimal models, namely GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, BCC-CSM2-MR, and MRI-ESM2-0, are selected for simulating future MHWs. Based on the simulation results of these five models under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the future period (2015–2100), it is found that under the SSP2-4.5, the frequency of MHWs is slightly higher compared to the SSP5-8.5. However, under the SSP5-8.5, MHWs exhibit higher accumulated intensity, maximum intensity, and average intensity, with a predominance of high-intensity MHWs in the Kuroshio Extension region. The occurrence area ratio in the future is significantly larger than in the historical period. Moreover, MHWs intensity displays a seasonal variation, with stronger during summer and weaker during winter. This study provides important insights into MHWs in the WNP region, offering valuable information for decision-makers in formulating response measures and reducing economic losses.

Description: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are widely recognized as prolonged periods of significantly elevated sea surface temperatures, leading to substantial adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. However, a comprehensive understanding of their characteristics and potential changes under climate change in the South China Sea (SCS, 0 ∼ 25°N, 105 ∼ 125°E) remains insufficient. Here, utilizing the OISST V2.0 reanalysis dataset, our study first examines MHW characteristics and their trends in the SCS during the historical period (1982 ∼ 2014). Then, in accordance with the criteria established in this study, GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, NESM3, EC-Earth3, and GFDL-CM4 are identified from the CMIP6 ensemble of 19 models for their enhanced simulations of historical MHW characteristics. Moreover, considering that the fixed and sliding threshold methods offer distinct perspectives on the future evolution of MHWs, we employ both approaches to evaluate MHW characteristics under projected scenarios for the future period (2015 ∼ 2100) and subsequently compare the disparities between the two methodologies. The outcomes obtained using these methods consistently indicate that MHWs in the SCS are anticipated to intensify and persist for longer durations in the future. Besides, addressing seasonal variability, the peak intensity of MHWs falls in May during both the historical period and the four projected future scenarios. This study provides valuable insights into the behavior of MHWs in the SCS within the context of climate change, underscoring the urgency of adopting effective mitigation strategies. Especially, the use of two definition methods provides a more comprehensive set of information for understanding the future changes of MHWs in the SCS.