ALBERT

Description: The increasing demand for renewable energy is projected to result in a 40-fold increase in offshore wind electricity in the European Union by 2030. Despite a great number of local impact studies for selected marine populations, the regional ecosystem impacts of offshore wind farm structures are not yet well assessed nor understood. The study resulting from this dataset investigates whether the accumulation of epifauna, dominated by the filter feeder Mytilus edulis (blue mussel), on turbine structures affects pelagic primary production in the southern North Sea.

Description: Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it the people who moved and either outplaced, or admixed with, the indigenous hunter-gatherer groups? Or was it material and information that moved---the Neolithic Package---consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of their use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, palaeontologists and geneticists, a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). GLUES is a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development, embedded in the geoenvironmental context, during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in western Eurasia. In contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, our model describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. We uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange and also of migration and the spread of agropastoralism. We find that: (1) An indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material. (2) Both demic diffusion by migration and cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well. (3) Migrating farmers apparently contribute less than local adopters to the establishment of agropastoralism. Our study thus underlines the importance of adoption of introduced technologies and economies by resident foragers.

Description: Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by rapid climatic shifts? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical model of regional sociocultural development, these events disturb the subsistence base of simulated forager and farmer societies. We evaluate the regional simulated transition timings and durations against a published large set of radiocarbon dates for western Eurasia; the model is able to realistically hindcast much of the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of regional Neolithic transitions. Our study shows that the inclusion of climate events improves the simulation of typical lags between cultural complexes, but that the overall difference to a model without climate events is not significant. Climate events may not have been as important for early sociocultural dynamics as endogenous factors.

Description: Photoacclimation models are a prerequisite for accurate estimates of primary production in aquatic environments under typically variable light conditions. They generally start from empirical functions of the internal chlorophyll a (chl a) or nutrient quota (e.g. the Droop model). We propose that physiological variations in phytoplankton reflect phenotypic adaptation which maximizes the growth rate. Growth maximization has to account for indirect effects of the enhancement of carbon (C) acquisition by acclimation, primarily through concomitant changes in the intracellular nitrogen (N) budget. Our model expresses, for the first time, the indirect effect of alterations in N uptake on C assimilation by a parameter-free trade-off between the 2 uptake functions. The model explicitly prescribes optimal protein partitioning between N and C uptake and sub-partitioning into carboxylation (1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase, Rubisco) and light harvesting. Applications to various published experimental data for different phytoplankton species support the validity of the optimality hypothesis and point to different flexibility in the re-organization of chloroplasts between taxa as well as to different time-scales on which photoacclimation operates. Simulations of a batch culture with the haptophyte Isochrysis galbana show that a decoupling in pigment N:C from cellular N:C may explain observed lag phases in chl a:C regulation. For diatoms, seemingly stronger constraints in intra-cellular stoichiometry determine the photoacclimative response to variable light regimes, as simulated and reported for Skeletonema costatum. N and chl a quotas correlate well in nutrient-limited chemostats of Thalassiosira fluviatilis, but in part decouple under light limitation. In N limited growth, non-linearity in N:C as expressed by the Droop function results from a combination of a linear quota dependency, down-regulation of relative carboxylation capacity, and increasing N costs of chl a synthesis at elevated growth rates. Our optimality assumption that includes indirect feed-backs through the concept of protein partitioning generates an accurate model for adaptation in physiological traits.

Description: The value of mechanistic ecosystem modelling has long been appreciated, and in connection with trait-based approaches it has recently stimulated a more process-based understanding of adaptive capacities and trade-offs. Notwithstanding recent advances, even sophisticated state-of-the-art models of plankton ecosystems, some of which include hundreds of idealized species, do not accurately represent the great biodiversity of plankton, or the associated flexible adaptive response of plankton communities. We build on previous reviews to suggest that it may be necessary to discard some common assumptions and try new approaches in order to construct models that can make new and testable predictions about the ``adaptive capacity'' of plankton ecosystems. Major challenges remain unresolved for modelling interacting communities of producers and consumers. Rather than the common approach of mixing and matching existing model components, each laden with its own legacy assumptions, we suggest that a judicious combination of innovative, mechanistic approaches that combine traits and trade-offs will likely better address such challenges.

Description: Driving factors of phytoplankton spring blooms have been discussed since long, but rarely analyzed quantitatively. Here, we use a mechanistic size-based ecosystem model to reconstruct observations made during the Kiel mesocosm experiments (2005–2006). The model accurately hindcasts highly variable bloom developments including community shifts in cell size. Under low light, phytoplankton dynamics was mostly controlled by selective mesozooplankton grazing. Selective grazing also explains initial dominance of large diatoms under high light conditions. All blooms were mainly terminated by aggregation and sedimentation. Allometries in nutrient uptake capabilities led to a delayed, post-bloom dominance of small species. In general, biomass and trait dynamics revealed many mutual dependencies, while growth factors decoupled from the respective selective forces. A size shift induced by one factor often changed the growth dependency on other factors. Within climate change scenarios, these indirect effects produced large sensitivities of ecosystem fluxes to the size distribution of winter phytoplankton. These sensitivities exceeded those found for changes in vertical mixing, whereas temperature changes only had minimal impacts.

Description: On the basis of the assumption that natural selection should tend to produce organisms optimally adapted to their environments, we consider optimality as a guiding concept for abstracting the behavior of aquatic microorganisms (plankton) to develop models to study and predict the behavior of planktonic organisms and communities. This is closely related to trait-based ecology, which considers that traits and functionality can be understood as the result of the optimization inherent in natural selection, subject to constraints imposed by fundamental processes necessary for life. This approach is particularly well suited to plankton because of their long evolutionary history and the ease with which they can be manipulated in experiments. We review recent quantitative modeling studies of planktonic organisms that have been based on the assumption that adaptation of species and acclimation of organisms maximize growth rate. Compared with mechanistic models not formulated in terms of optimality, this approach has in some cases yielded simpler models, and in others models of greater generality. The evolutionary success of any given species must depend on its interactions with both the physical environment and other organisms, which depend on the evolving traits of all organisms concerned. The concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) can, at least in principle, constrain the choice of goal functions to be optimized in models. However, the major challenge remains of how to construct models at the level of organisms that can resolve short-term dynamics, e.g., of phytoplankton blooms, in a way consistent with ESS theory, which is formulated in terms of a steady state.