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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 8364–8380, doi:10.1002/2015JC011062.
    Description: When wind speeds are 2–10 m s−1, reflective contrasts in the ocean surface make oil slicks visible to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) under all sky conditions. Neural network analysis of satellite SAR images quantified the magnitude and distribution of surface oil in the Gulf of Mexico from persistent, natural seeps and from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) discharge. This analysis identified 914 natural oil seep zones across the entire Gulf of Mexico in pre-2010 data. Their ∼0.1 µm slicks covered an aggregated average of 775 km2. Assuming an average volume of 77.5 m3 over an 8–24 h lifespan per oil slick, the floating oil indicates a surface flux of 2.5–9.4 × 104 m3 yr−1. Oil from natural slicks was regionally concentrated: 68%, 25%, 7%, and 〈1% of the total was observed in the NW, SW, NE, and SE Gulf, respectively. This reflects differences in basin history and hydrocarbon generation. SAR images from 2010 showed that the 87 day DWH discharge produced a surface-oil footprint fundamentally different from background seepage, with an average ocean area of 11,200 km2 (SD 5028) and a volume of 22,600 m3 (SD 5411). Peak magnitudes of oil were detected during equivalent, ∼14 day intervals around 23 May and 18 June, when wind speeds remained 〈5 m s−1. Over this interval, aggregated volume of floating oil decreased by 21%; area covered increased by 49% (p 〈 0.1), potentially altering its ecological impact. The most likely causes were increased applications of dispersant and surface burning operations.
    Description: DoE Grant Number: DE-NT0005638; National Science Foundation Grant Number: EF-0801741; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Grant Number: M12PC00003
    Keywords: Remote sensing ; SAR ; Oil pollution ; Deepwater Horizon ; Natural seeps
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: The files included are computer code for achieving the test described in the associated manuscript. The code is written in MATLAB and requires the optimization toolbox.
    Description: One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper butterfly and the European goldfinch in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Extreme value statistics ; Occupancy ; Species range ; Bootstrap ; Endpoint estimation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Presented at the Eighth Symposium on Harmful Algae in the U.S. November 15 - 19, 2015, Long Beach, California
    Description: We analyzed a potential relationship between changes in school absences in Sarasota County and Karenia brevis (Kb) count data. Brevetoxins released during Kb blooms could be a reason for students experiencing increased respiratory or gastrointestinal illnesses, causing an increase in absence rates. We designed a map to relate the locations of Sarasota County schools and the distributions of those Kb counts with a minimum of 10,000 cell counts per liter and above. Due to the proximity of Kb counts, we hypothesized that brevetoxins could have a greater effect on the schools near the coast of Florida rather than the schools inland. Because individuals could be affected by brevetoxins up to several days after being exposed, we expected to find a lagged effect of a bloom occurrence on school absences. Using a regression approach, we were unable to detect an association between Kb counts and student absences. In some cases, the direction of the effects were opposite to what would be expected (i.e., an increase in Kb counts was associated with a reduction in the percent absent rate). The results indicated that over 70% of the variation in the school percent absent rate could be explained by the latent characteristics of individual schools (such as variations in student populations across different schools), by school week, by month (such as the effects of flu outbreaks or and other seasonal factors), and by year.
    Keywords: Florida Red Tide ; Harmful algae bloom ; HAB
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Presentation
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Environment International 68 (2014): 144-153, doi:10.1016/j.envint.2014.03.016.
    Description: Human respiratory and digestive illnesses can be caused by exposures to brevetoxins from blooms of the marine alga Karenia brevis, also known as Florida red tide (FRT). K. brevis requires macro-nutrients to grow; although the sources of these nutrients have not been resolved completely, they are thought to originate both naturally and anthropogenically. The latter sources comprise atmospheric depositions, industrial effluents, land runoffs, or submerged groundwater discharges. To date, there has been only limited research on the extent of human health risks and economic impacts due to FRT. We hypothesized that FRT blooms were associated with increases in the numbers of emergency room visits and hospital inpatient admissions for both respiratory and digestive illnesses. We sought to estimate these relationships and to calculate the costs of associated adverse health impacts. We developed environmental exposure-response models to test the effects of FRT blooms on human health, using data from diverse sources. We estimated the FRT bloom-associated illness costs, using extant data and parameters from the literature. When controlling for resident population, a proxy for tourism, and seasonal and annual effects, we found that increases in respiratory and digestive illnesses can be explained by FRT blooms. Specifically, FRT blooms were associated with human health and economic effects in older cohorts (≥ 55 years of age) in six southwest Florida counties. Annual costs of illness ranged from $60,000 to $700,000 annually, but these costs could exceed $1.0 million per year for severe, long-lasting FRT blooms, such as the one that occurred during 2005. Assuming that the average annual illness costs of FRT blooms persist into the future, using a discount rate of 3%, the capitalized costs of future illnesses would range between $2-24 million.
    Description: This research was sponsored by the National Science Foundation under NSF/CNH Grant No. 1009106.L.E. Fleming acknowledges support from the European Regional Development Fund and the European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hoagland, P., Kirkpatrick, B., Jin, D., Kirkpatrick, G., Fleming, L. E., Ullmann, S. G., Beet, A., Hitchcock, G., Harrison, K. K., Li, Z. C., Garrison, B., Diaz, R. E., & Lovko, V. Lessening the hazards of Florida red tides: a common sense approach. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 538, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00538.
    Description: In the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the southwest Florida coast, blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are a coastal natural hazard. The organism produces a potent class of toxins, known as brevetoxins, which are released following cell lysis into ocean or estuarine waters or, upon aerosolization, into the atmosphere. When exposed to sufficient levels of brevetoxins, humans may suffer from respiratory, gastrointestinal, or neurological illnesses. The hazard has been exacerbated by the geometric growth of human populations, including both residents and tourists, along Florida’s southwest coast. Impacts to marine organisms or ecosystems also may occur, such as fish kills or deaths of protected mammals, turtles, or birds. Since the occurrence of a severe Karenia brevis bloom off the southwest Florida coast three-quarters of a century ago, there has been an ongoing debate about the best way for humans to mitigate the impacts of this hazard. Because of the importance of tourism to coastal Florida, there are incentives for businesses and governments alike to obfuscate descriptions of these blooms, leading to the social amplification of risk. We argue that policies to improve the public’s ability to understand the physical attributes of blooms, specifically risk communication policies, are to be preferred over physical, chemical, or biological controls. In particular, we argue that responses to this type of hazard must emphasize maintaining the continuity of programs of scientific research, environmental monitoring, public education, and notification. We propose a common-sense approach to risk communication, comprising a simplification of the public provision of existing sources of information to be made available on a mobile website.
    Description: The research leading to these results was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) under NSF Grant No. CNH 1009106. PH and DJ acknowledge the complementary support under NSF Grant No. PFI/BIC 1534054.
    Keywords: Harmful algal bloom ; Florida red tide ; Karenia brevis ; Economic effect ; Policy response ; Social amplification of risk ; Risk communication
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hoagland, P., Beet, A., Ralston, D., Parsons, G., Shirazi, Y., & Carr, E. Salinity intrusion in a modified river-estuary system: an integrated modeling framework for source-to-sea management. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 425, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00425.
    Description: Along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, port authorities and governments have been competing for access to federal funds to deepen the channels and berths in each of the major estuary-based harbors, thereby facilitating access by larger containerships. Consistent with a source-to-sea conceptualization, physical modifications of an estuary can result in dynamic changes to its water and sediment flows, resulting in new arrangements of environmental features. These modifications, in turn, can lead to redistributions of the net benefits arising from extant flows of valued ecosystem services to stakeholders and communities in the broader river-estuary system. Here, some of the implications of channel deepening in the Hudson river-estuary system were examined as a case study. An integrated analytical framework was developed, comprising hydrodynamic models of water flows and environmental characteristics, especially salinity; extreme value estimates of the occurrence of regional droughts; and assessments of the welfare effects of changes in ecosystem services. Connections were found among channel deepening in the lower estuary, increased risks to fluvial drinking water withdrawals in the upper estuary, and expected economic losses to hydropower generation in the upper river. The results argue for a more inclusive consideration of the consequences of human modifications of river-estuary systems.
    Description: This work was sponsored by NSF Coastal SEES Grant No. 1325136.
    Keywords: Salinity intrusion ; Ecosystem services ; Channel deepening ; Source-to-sea ; Drinking water ; Hydropower ; Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) ; Hudson River and Estuary
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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