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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2006-08-15
    Description: The consistency between observed changes in Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) properties at 32°S in the Indian Ocean and model simulations is explored using the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). Hydrographic data collected in 2002 show that the water mass is warmer and saltier on isopycnals than in 1987, in contrast to the isopycnal freshening observed between 1962 and 1987. The response of HadCM3 under a range of forcing scenarios is explored and the observed freshening is only seen in experiments that include greenhouse gas forcing; however, there is no subsequent return to more saline conditions in 2002. The response of the model to greenhouse gas forcing is dominated by a persistent freshening trend, the simulated water mass variability agrees well with that suggested by the limited observations. Comparing model isopycnal changes from the forced experiments with a control run shows that the changes from the 1960s to 2002 are best explained by internal variability. This is in contrast to earlier work, which attributed the observed isopycnal freshening to anthropogenic forcing. Although the model shows that at present an anthropogenic climate change signal is not detectable in SAMW, the model water mass freshens on isopycnals during the twenty-first century under increased greenhouse gas forcing. This is consistent with recent heat content observations, which suggest that the salting is unlikely to persist. In HadCM3, this freshening is due to an increasing surface heat flux and Ekman heat and freshwater flux into the water mass formation region. This paper emphasizes the importance of higher-frequency observations of SAMW if detection and attribution statements are to be made.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2007-12-01
    Description: Coupled climate models generally have a small residual radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere. In the Met Office climate model, Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1), it is incoming (heating the planet) and reduces over a 350-yr period from 0.4 to 0.1 W m−2. The process of the adjustment in HadGEM1 is examined and is shown to be linked to excessive heat gain. In the tropical and South Atlantic, cold, fresh Antarctic Intermediate Water is replaced by anomalously warm, salty intermediate water. The loss of Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic is related to a weak Agulhas retroflection. The erosion is enhanced in the tropical Atlantic by strong upwelling. The warm, salty anomalies are advected northward outcropping in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In the outcrop zone, sea surface temperature and salinity are increased, which lead to an increase in global mean surface temperature and a reduction in the sea ice area. This adjusts the top of the atmosphere balance via increased outgoing longwave radiation and is partly offset by a decrease in outgoing shortwave radiation. The increased surface salinity triggers convection in the Labrador Sea and leads to a strong flushing of the thermohaline circulation. These results demonstrate that adjustment time scales for coupled climate models can be in excess of 350 yr. The potential implications of the adjustment time scale of climate models need to be considered when planning scenario and sensitivity experiments, as model drifts can be nonlinear.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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