ISSN:
1573-2983
Schlagwort(e):
Lead
;
exposure
;
probabilistic
;
Monte Carlo
;
risk
Quelle:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Thema:
Geologie und Paläontologie
,
Medizin
Notizen:
Abstract A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.
Materialart:
Digitale Medien
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00661329
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