ISSN:
1572-9982
Keywords:
exports
;
output
;
cyclical behaviour
;
structural time-series models
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Summary This paper examines the cyclical relationship between exports and output in the U.K. using structural time-series modelling. The time series on exports and output over the period 1885–1993 are decomposed, and the cyclical components are extracted. Causality testing as applied to the cyclical components reveals the absence of causality from exports to output except in the post-1945 period. The results of causality testing are confirmed by the results of estimating a structural time-series model in which exports appear as an explanatory state variable. Three different explanations are suggested for the change in this relationship during the most recent period.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01371943
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