ISSN:
1573-7179
Keywords:
asset pricing
;
expected returns
;
unified asset pricing model
;
dividend discount model
;
meta-analysis
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Economics
Notes:
Abstract This study examines the performance of three asset pricing models: the CAPM, the APT and the UAPT using observed expected returns from a three-phase dividend discount model with Value Line analyst estimates of future company-level earnings, dividends and growth rates. Our study is the first we know of to test the three major asset pricing models using observed expected returns. Our results are similar to prior research using ex post (realized) returns in that we find that the UAPT using macroeconomic factors is the best performing model, followed by the APT and the CAPM. However, our results also suggest that the importance of macroeconomic factors is much greater to expected returns than to realized returns, and the corresponding R2 values for models using expected returns are much higher than for models using realized returns. Combining our results for the UAPT with those of Marston and Harris (1993) for the CAPM suggests that these models are more successful in tests using observed expected returns than in tests using realized returns as proxies for expected returns. Unit root tests suggest that monthly observed expected returns follow the classic “random walk without drift” model while monthly realized returns do not.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008292410561
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