Publication Date:
2014-10-11
Description:
The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4230924/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4230924/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Gerland, Patrick -- Raftery, Adrian E -- Sevcikova, Hana -- Li, Nan -- Gu, Danan -- Spoorenberg, Thomas -- Alkema, Leontine -- Fosdick, Bailey K -- Chunn, Jennifer -- Lalic, Nevena -- Bay, Guiomar -- Buettner, Thomas -- Heilig, Gerhard K -- Wilmoth, John -- R01 HD054511/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/ -- R01 HD070936/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2014 Oct 10;346(6206):234-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1257469. Epub 2014 Sep 18.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu. ; Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu. ; Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4320, USA. ; Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA. ; Department of Statistics and Applied Probability and Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117546. ; Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877, USA. ; James Cook University Singapore, 600 Upper Thomson Road, Singapore 574421. ; Institutional Research, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-9445, USA. ; Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE), Population Division of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile. ; Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY, USA.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25301627" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Adult
;
Age Distribution
;
Aged
;
Humans
;
Middle Aged
;
*Population Growth
;
Uncertainty
;
United Nations
;
Work
;
Young Adult
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
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