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  • 1
    ISSN: 1432-0819
    Keywords: Key words El Chichón Volcano ; Crater Lake ; Hydrothermal system ; Volcanic gases ; Stable isotopes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract  The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano ejected more than 1 km3 of anhydrite-bearing trachyandesite pyroclastic material to form a new 1-km-wide and 300-m-deep crater and uncovered the upper 500 m of an active volcano-hydrothermal system. Instead of the weak boiling-point temperature fumaroles of the former lava dome, a vigorously boiling crater spring now discharges  / 20 kg/s of Cl-rich (∼15 000 mg/kg) and sulphur-poor ( / 200 mg/kg of SO4), almost neutral (pH up to 6.7) water with an isotopic composition close to that of subduction-type magmatic water (δD=–15‰, δ18O=+6.5‰). This spring, as well as numerous Cl-free boiling springs discharging a mixture of meteoric water with fumarolic condensates, feed the crater lake, which, compared with values in 1983, is now much more diluted (∼3000 mg/kg of Cl vs 24 030 mg/kg), less acidic (pH=2.6 vs 0.56) and contains much lower amounts of S ( / 200 mg/kg of SO4, vs 3550 mg/kg) with δ34S=0.5–4.2‰ (+17‰ in 1983). Agua Caliente thermal waters, on the southeast slope of the volcano, have an outflow rate of approximately 100 kg/s of 71  °C Na–Ca–Cl water and are five times more concentrated than before the eruption (B. R. Molina, unpublished data). Relative N2, Ar and He gas concentrations suggest extensional tectonics for the El Chichón volcanic centre. The 3He/4He and 4He/20Ne ratios in gases from the crater fumaroles (7.3Ra, 2560) and Agua Caliente hot springs (5.3Ra, 44) indicate a strong magmatic contribution. However, relative concentrations of reactive species are typical of equilibrium in a two-phase boiling aquifer. Sulphur and C isotopic data indicate highly reducing conditions within the system, probably associated with the presence of buried vegetation resulting from the 1982 eruption. All Cl-rich waters at El Chichón have a common source. This water has the appearence of a "partially matured" magmatic fluid: condensed magmatic vapour neutralized by interaction with fresh volcaniclastic deposits and depleted in S due to anhydrite precipitation. Shallow ground waters emerging around the volcano from the thick cover of fresh pumice deposits (Red waters) are Ca–SO4–rich and have a negative oxygen isotopic shift, probably due to ongoing formation of clay at low temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-10-21
    Description: In this study, we detail a new prediction-oriented procedure aimed at volcanic hazard assessment based on geophysical mass flow models with heterogeneous and poorly constrained output information. Our method is based on an itemized application of the empirical falsification principle over an arbitrarily wide envelope of possible input conditions. In particular, instead of fully calibrating input data on past observations, we create and explore input values under more general requirements of consistency, and then we separately use each piece of empirical data to remove those input values that are not compatible with it, hence defining partial solutions to the inversion problem. This has several advantages compared to a traditionally posed inverse problem: (i) the potentially non-empty intersection of the input spaces of partial solutions fully contains solutions to the inverse problem; (ii) the partial solutions can provide hazard estimates under weaker constraints potentially including extreme cases that are important for hazard analysis; (iii) if multiple models are applicable, specific performance scores against each piece of empirical information can be calculated. We apply our procedure to the case study of the Atenquique volcaniclastic debris flow, which occurred in the State of Jalisco (MX), 1955. We adopt and compare three depth averaged models currently implemented in the TITAN2D solver, available from vhub.org. The associated inverse problem is not well-posed if approached in a traditional way. However, we show that our procedure can extract valuable information for hazard assessment, allowing the exploration of the impact of model flows that are similar to those which occurred in the past, but differ in plausible ways.
    Description: Published
    Description: Washington DC
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: debris flow ; shallow water model
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-11-09
    Description: Hazard assessment of geophysical mass flows, such as landslides or pyroclastic flows, usually relies on the reconstruction of past flows that occurred in the region of interest using models of physics that have been successful in hindcasting. While physical models relate inputs and outputs of the dynamical system of the mass flow (Gilbert, 1991; Patra et al., 2018a) this relation is dependent on the choice of model and parameters which is usually difficult for future events. Choices based on limited data using classical inversion is often misleading since it does not reflect all potential event characteristics and even in a probabilistic setting can be error-prone, due to incorrectly limited event space. In this work, we use a multi-model ensemble and a plausible region approach to provide a more prediction-oriented probabilistic framework for hazard analysis.
    Description: Published
    Description: Austin (TX)
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Keywords: debris flow ; shallow water simulation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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