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  • Solar Physics  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: We explore requirements for a solar particle event (SPE) and flare capable of producing the cosmogenic nuclide event of 775 A.D., and review solar circumstances at that time. A solar source for 775 would require a greater than 1 GV spectrum approximately 45 times stronger than that of the intense high-energy SPE of 1956 February 23. This implies a greater than 30 MeV proton fluence (F(sub 30)) of approximately 8 10(exp 10) proton cm(exp 2), approximately 10 times larger than that of the strongest 3 month interval of SPE activity in the modern era. This inferred F(sub 30) value for the 775 SPE is inconsistent with the occurrence probability distribution for greater than 30 MeV solar proton events. The best guess value for the soft X-ray classification (total energy) of an associated flare is approximately X230 (approximately 9 10(exp 33) erg). For comparison, the flares on 2003 November 4 and 1859 September 1 had observed/inferred values of approximately X35 (approximately 10(exp 33) erg) and approximately X45 (approximately 2 10(exp 33) erg), respectively. The estimated size of the source active region for a approximately 10(exp 34) erg flare is approximately 2.5 times that of the largest region yet recorded. The 775 event occurred during a period of relatively low solar activity, with a peak smoothed amplitude about half that of the second half of the 20th century. The approximately 1945-1995 interval, the most active of the last approximately 2000 yr, failed to witness a SPE comparable to that required for the proposed solar event in 775. These considerations challenge a recent suggestion that the 775 event is likely of solar origin.
    Keywords: Solar Physics
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN22596 , The Astrophysical Journal; 781; 1; 32
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z〉2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.
    Keywords: Solar Physics
    Type: M10-0080 , American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2009 Fall Meeting; Dec 14, 2009 - Dec 18, 2009; San Francisco, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
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