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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.
    Keywords: Statistics and Probability
    Type: JSC-CN-24927 , 5th IAASS Conference: A Safer Space for a Safer World; Oct 17, 2011 - Oct 19, 2011; Versailles-Paris; France
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: A Near Earth object impacting into Earth's atmosphere may produce damaging effects at the surface due to airblast, thermal pulse, or kinetic impact in the form of meteorites. At large sizes (〉many tens of meters), the damage is amplified by the hypersonic impact of these large projectiles moving with cosmic velocity, leaving explosively produced craters. However, much more common is simple "kinetic" damage caused by the impact of smaller meteorites moving at terminal speeds. As of this date a handful of instances are definitively known of people or structures being directly hit and/or damaged by the kinetic impact of meteorites. Meteorites known to have struck humans include the Sylacauga, Alabama fall (1954) and the Mbale meteorite fall (1992). Much more common is kinetic meteorite damage to cars, buildings, and even a post box (Claxton, Georgia - 1984). Historical accounts indicate that direct kinetic damage by meteorites may be more common than recent accounts suggest (Yau et al., 1994). In this talk we will examine the contemporary meteorite flux and estimate the frequency of kinetic damage to various structures, as well as how the meteorite flux might affect the rate of human casualties. This will update an earlier study by Halliday et al (1985), adding variations expected in meteorite flux with latitude (Le Feuvre and Wieczorek, 2008) and validating these model predictions of speed and entry angle with observations from the NASA and SOMN fireball networks. In particular, we explore the physical characteristics of bright meteors which may be used as a diagnostic for estimating which fireballs produce meteorites and hence how early warning of such kinetic damage may be estimated in advance through observations and modelling.
    Keywords: Solar Physics
    Type: M17-5756 , International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Planetary Defense Conference; May 15, 2017 - May 19, 2017; Tokyo; Japan
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: A Near Earth object impacting into Earth's atmosphere may produce damaging effects at the surface due to airblast, thermal pulse, or kinetic impact in the form of meteorites. At large sizes (greater than many tens of meters), the damage is amplified by the hypersonic impact of these large projectiles moving with cosmic velocity, leaving explosively produced craters. However, much more common is simple "kinetic" damage caused by the impact of smaller meteorites moving at terminal speeds. As of this date a handful of instances are definitively known of people or structures being directly hit and/or damaged by the kinetic impact of meteorites. Meteorites known to have struck humans include the Sylacauga, Alabama fall (1954) and the Mbale meteorite fall (1992). Much more common is kinetic meteorite damage to cars, buildings, and even a post box (Claxton, Georgia - 1984). Historical accounts indicate that direct kinetic damage by meteorites may be more common than recent accounts suggest (Yau et al., 1994). In this talk we will examine the contemporary meteorite flux and estimate the frequency of kinetic damage to various structures, as well as how the meteorite flux might affect the rate of human casualties. This will update an earlier study by Halliday et al (1985), adding variations expected in meteorite flux with latitude (Le Feuvre and Wieczorek, 2008) and validating these model predictions of speed and entry angle with observations from the NASA and SOMN fireball networks. In particular, we explore the physical characteristics of bright meteors which may be used as a diagnostic for estimating which fireballs produce meteorites and hence how early warning of such kinetic damage may be estimated in advance through observations and modeling.
    Keywords: Solar Physics
    Type: M17-5756 , IAA Planetary Defense Conference; May 15, 2017 - May 19, 2017; Tokyo; Japan
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
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