Publication Date:
2021-02-10
Description:
Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) claimed that anomalous, yet similar, increases of
ionospheric total electron content (TEC) started ~40 min prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, as well as before
other Mw〉8 earthquakes. The authors concluded that the reported TEC anomalies were likely related to the
pending earthquakes, suggesting also that TEC monitoring may be useful for future earthquake prediction.
Here we carefully examine the findings of Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto (2013) by performing new
analyses of the same TEC data. Our interpretation is that the 40 min onset of the ionospheric precursors is an
artifact induced by the definition of the reference line adopted in analyzing TEC variations. We also discuss
this repeatability in the tectonic and geodynamic context of the earthquakes. By performing a Superimposed
Epoch Analysis of TEC data, we show that, however, the TEC increase reported by Heki (2011) was not
particularly anomalous. We conclude that the TEC precursors reported by Heki (2011) and Heki and Enomoto
(2013) are not useful for developing short-term earthquake prediction capabilities.
Description:
Published
Description:
1383–1393
Description:
1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
Ionosphere
;
Total Electron Content
;
Earthquake precursors
;
Short-term earthquake prediction
;
01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.99. General or miscellaneous
;
01. Atmosphere::01.03. Magnetosphere::01.03.99. General or miscellaneous
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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